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Stock message boards and chat rooms
have caught the attention of the financial press, regulators and
investor relations professionals. While much of this attention has
focused on anecdotes about particular companies, the real story
is the medium itself. Message boards represent a revolution in the
way information can spread to investors. My research at the University
of Michigan on the message board revolution has several important
implications for investor relations professionals. These implications
are conveniently captured in three quotes from comedian Steven Wright:
"If all those psychics know the winning lottery numbers,
why are they all still working?"
A key concern about stock message boards is the underlying
motives of individuals who post messages about a company. In particular,
why would an investor publicly disseminate valuable information,
free of charge, to other investors on the Web? One possibility is
that the investor has taken a short position in a company and hopes
to profit from spreading negative information about that company.
My research provides evidence consistent with this claim. In fact,
message posting volume is strongly related to investors' short-sale
positions in a company's stock.
"If a person with multiple personalities threatens
suicide, is that considered a hostage situation?"
My research also shows that a few individuals dominate
the posting activity on stock message boards. For example, ten individuals
account for approximately one half of all messages posted on the
Ford Motor Company discussion board at The Motley Fool investor
site. This concentrated posting activity is common on many stock
message boards. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that some of these
"individuals" are, in fact, the same person operating under multiple
on-line personas! Unfortunately, these anonymous individuals can
disproportionately influence investors' perceptions of your company.
Investor relations professionals should become familiar with these
select purveyors of public opinion.
"One time a cop pulled me over for running a stop sign.
He said, 'Didn't you see the stop sign?' I said, 'Yeah, but I don't
believe everything I read.'"
The investing public should certainly heed SEC Chairman
Arthur Levitt's advice to be wary of information they read on stock
message boards on the Web. On the other hand, managers and investor
relations professionals cannot afford to ignore the signs of activity
on stock message boards. My research indicates that message posting
activity is fundamentally related to a company's information environment.
Therefore, message boards can be viewed as a medium to "monitor
the pulse" of the investing public. A large increase in message
posting volume about a company may be a sign of investor discontent
and signal the need to fill the information gap. While there are
many messages on this new medium, the medium is definitely the message!
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