OVERLAND PARK, Kan., Sept. 26 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- "If the
 Republican Party renounces comprehensive immigration reform in favor of
 'enforcement only,' Democrats will capture New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado,
 Florida, and Iowa in the upcoming presidential contest," said Americas
 Majority Foundation (A.M.F.) research analyst Richard Nadler.
 
     The foundation's newest study, involving 145 precincts and 175,000
 votes, analyzes actual vote shifts in Hispanic portions of six
 congressional districts in the 2004 and 2006 elections. "In the Latino
 areas where candidates advocated a variant of 'enforcement only,'" said
 Nadler, "support for Republicans dropped by more than 21 percentage points
 over a single cycle, and support for Democrats rose by an equivalent
 amount. But where Republican candidates supported comprehensive immigration
 reform - some combination of border control and guest-worker programs or
 earned legalization - the situation was quite different. There, Republicans
 lost roughly 4 percentage points, and Democrats gained 4 - a shift in line
 with national trends."
 
     Nadler finds that border security is not the key issue affecting the
 Latino vote. "There are nine congressional districts bordering Mexico," he
 observes. "Bush carried five in 2004, and Kerry, four. The congressmen from
 these districts all advocate stiffer border controls. The problems
 associated with open borders are their constituents' problems - drug
 smuggling, human trafficking, crime and overburdened social networks. A
 congressman can support rigorous measures -- a border fence, electronic
 surveillance, increased Border Patrol, workplace ID, expedited deportation
 for major crime - all without prejudicing his ability to attract Latino
 votes. But when a politician heads into the murky territory of mass
 deportations, or rejection of guest worker programs, or criminalization of
 the civil infractions of undocumented work, the political penalty he pays
 among Latinos is harsh and prompt.
 
     "Policies that induce mass fear in illegal aliens induce mass anger in
 legal aliens. The moral hazard associated with decades of non-enforcement
 of immigration laws becomes explicit with 'enforcement-only.' Ties of
 family, culture, and a shared media communicate the fears of the group
 directly threatened - the illegals - to other Latinos who are not.
 
     "Participants in the immigration debate needn't like this conclusion.
 But they had better understand it."
 
     The full text of the report is available for download at AMERMAJ.com
 
 
 

SOURCE Americas Majority Foundation