Brazil's Smart Grid Market Will Reach $36.6 Billion by 2022

WASHINGTON, April 5, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Smart grid investments in Brazil will reach $36.6 billion by 2022, according to a new study released today by Northeast Group, LLC.  Utilities in Brazil will use the smart grid investments to help reduce electricity theft, improve the reliability of electric infrastructure, offer new pricing plans for customers and enable economic growth.  

"Brazil's rapidly growing economy is straining the existing electric infrastructure and smart grid investments will be critical to address the many challenges facing the sector.  Brazil, with the fifth largest population in the world, is eager to upgrade its infrastructure in the run-up to the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics when it will be on the world stage," according to Northeast Group.

"A very significant problem in Brazil is the high rate of electricity theft.  This is both a public safety issue and also unfairly requires paying customers to subsidize those stealing power.  Smart meters are very effective tools in helping reduce electricity theft," according to Northeast Group.

Smart metering - or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) - will be the smart grid program leading the way in Brazil.  The centerpiece of Brazil's smart grid plans is a target set by ANEEL, the Brazilian electricity regulator, to deploy 63 million AMI meters by 2021.  Detailed regulations are expected within the next year and these will drive large-scale AMI deployments across the country. In addition, distribution automation, home energy management and other smart grid technologies are expected to grow in Brazil over the coming decade.

"Establishing the regulatory framework will be the catalyst for large-scale AMI deployments," according to Northeast Group.  "But even in advance of these regulations, Brazilian utilities have been very active in piloting AMI.  Almost all of the utilities have piloted AMI in some form and five of the largest utility groups with non-technical losses above 14% found that AMI deployments can bring immediate benefits by reducing theft.  Several Brazilian utilities are even already experimenting with full-scale 'smart city' concepts that leverage a number of smart grid applications, such as distributed renewable generation and sophisticated home area networks."

The study - Brazil Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2012-2022) - forecasts 14 segments of the smart grid market in Brazil.  These include market values for AMI segments (meter hardware, communications, IT, professional services and installation costs); distribution automation segments (substation automation; fault detection, isolation and restoration (FDIR); volt/VAR optimization (VVO); and grid monitoring and control); wide area measurement (synchrophasors), and home energy management segments (home area networks, electric vehicle supply equipment and smart solar inverters) through 2022.  The study also provides a detailed overview of the electricity industry structure in Brazil.  It profiles the 12 consortia controlling 33 of the largest distribution utilities that make up 90% of the market.  A smart grid vendor analysis in the report profiles those firms positioning themselves to win large smart grid contracts, including domestic Brazilian firms poised to partner with international smart grid vendors.

The study is 128 pages long and includes over 65 charts, tables and graphics.  Primary research was completed on the ground in Brazil and secondary research used English and Portuguese sources.  To order a copy of the study, please visit www.northeast-group.com or email Ben Gardner at: ben.gardner@northeast-group.com

ABOUT: Northeast Group, LLC is a Washington, DC-based smart grid market intelligence firm. Our research is focused on the smart grid opportunity in emerging market countries. 

Key questions answered in this study:

  • How large will the smart grid market – including 14 segments - become over the next decade?
  • What will the smart metering regulatory framework look like and when will it be put in place?
  • Which international vendors are already active in Brazil? Which domestic vendors are poised to partner with international firms to exploit the growing smart grid market?
  • How will Brazilian utilities build their smart meter business cases?
  • Which utilities have already developed pilot projects and which technologies are they using?
  • Where in Brazil are distribution automation and home energy management likely to develop?

Table of Contents


i. Executive Summary

1

ii. Methodology

8

1. Introduction

11

2. Brazil smart grid snapshot

19

    2.1 Current situation

19

    2.2 Regional comparison

21

    2.3 Electricity industry structure

25

    2.4 Smart metering regulatory framework

30

    2.5 Market drivers and barriers

35

3. Smart grid market forecast

47

    3.1 Deployment start date and pace

47

    3.2 Cost estimates

47

    3.3 Alternative scenario

50

4. Detailed smart grid market forecast and technology outlook

51

    4.1 AMI

51

        4.1.1 Meter hardware

52

        4.1.2 Communications options

53

        4.1.3 IT: meter data management and customer information systems

56

        4.1.4 Professional services

57

        4.1.5 Installation costs

57

        4.1.6 Prepaid metering

57

    4.2 Wide area measurement

58

    4.3 Distribution automation

59

        4.3.1 Overview of DA in Brazil

59

        4.3.2 Distribution automation components

61

        4.3.2.1 Substation automation and monitoring

62

        4.3.2.2 FDIR

63

        4.3.2.3 Volt/VAR optimization

64

        4.3.2.4 Grid monitoring and control

65

        4.3.3 Distribution automation activity in Brazil

66

    4.4 Home energy management

68

        4.4.1 Home area networks

68

        4.4.2 Distributed generation: solar inverters with communication capability

70

        4.4.3 Electric vehicle supply equipment

71

5. Utilities

74

    5.1 AES

74

    5.2 Iberdrola

78

    5.1 CPFL

79

    5.2 Light

81

    5.1 Cemig

85

    5.2 Endesa

88

    5.1 Copel

91

    5.2 Rede Energia

92

    5.1 EDP

93

    5.2 Eletrobras

95

    5.1 Celesc

96

    5.2 Cemar

97

6. Vendor activity

100

    6.1 Domestic vendors

100

    6.2 International vendors

106

        6.2.1 International vendors in AMI projects

106

        6.2.2 International vendors in distribution automation projects

110

        6.2.3 International vendors poised to expand in Brazil

112

7. Conclusion

114

8. Appendix

115

    8.1 Domestic electricity sector vendors in Brazil

115

    8.2 List of companies mentioned in this report

119

    8.3 List of acronyms

120





List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables


Brazil smart grid: key takeaways

4

Brazil smart grid: leading indicators

5

Smart grid development in Brazilian utilities

6

Combined smart grid forecast

7

Brazil smart grid forecast data

7

Figure 1.1: Smart grid value chain

11

Figure 1.2: Projected wind generation in Brazil

12

Figure 1.3: Smart grid model highlighting focus in Brazil

13

Table 1.1: Benefits of AMI in Brazil

14

Table 1.2: Demand response options

17

Figure 1.4: Solar and wind resources in Brazil

18

Table 2.1: Classification of meters by type

19

Table 2.2: Functionalities of electronic meters

20

Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential

21

Figure 2.2: Current smart meter penetration rates in Latin America

22

Figure 2.3: Per-capita electricity consumption in emerging markets

23

Figure 2.4: Average residential consumption in Brazil

23

Figure 2.5: Global per-capita CO2 emissions

24

Figure 2.6: Actual and forecasted GDP growth in Latin America

24

Box 2.1: Smart grid throughout Latin America

25

Figure 2.7: Global residential electricity prices

26

Figure 2.8: Electricity generation mix in Brazil

26

Figure 2.9: Contracted and forecasted new generation

27

Figure 2.10: Utility ownership in Brazil

28

Box 2.2: Brazil political situation – the Dilma effect

29

Figure 2.11: Electricity regulatory structure in Brazil

30

Figure 2.12: Conventional and "white" tariffs

32

Table 2.3: Smart grid-related government action in Brazil

33

Figure 2.13: Global distribution losses

36

Box 2.3: Smart meter business case in Brazil – an analysis of loss reduction alone

36

Figure 2.14: Payback on AMI meter from loss reduction in average Brazilian home

37

Figure 2.15: Payback on average res/comm. AMI meter from loss reduction in two utilities

37

Figure 2.16: Aggregate cost savings from res/comm. non-technical loss reduction

38

Figure 2.17: Percent manufacturing sales lost to power outages

39

Figure 2.18: Electricity consumption growth in Brazil

40

Table 2.4: Percentage of customers who would alter habits if peak prices were to double

41

Table 2.5: Appliance ownership in Brazil

42

Table 2.6: Smart grid drivers and barriers in Brazil

43

Figure 2.19: Percentage renewable energy consumption in Latin America

45

Figure 3.1: Timeline of smart grid development in Brazil

47

Figure 3.2: Combined smart grid forecast    

48

Table 3.1: Brazil smart grid forecast data        

48

Figure 3.3: Annual AMI deployments            

49

Figure 3.4: Brazil smart meter penetration rate            

49

Figure 3.5: Delayed deployment scenario                 

50

Figure 4.1: AMI cost breakdown                               

51

Figure 4.2: Combined AMI forecast                             

52

Table 4.1: AMI forecast data                                           

52

Table 4.2: Communications technologies                                              

54

Figure 4.3: Phasor measurement unit (PMU) forecast                                           

59

Figure 4.4: Distribution automation forecast                                                            

60

Figure 4.5: Substation and distribution automation in Brazil                   

62

Table 4.4: Home energy management forecast data                                  

69

Figure 4.6: Home energy management forecast                       

69

Figure 4.7: Electric vehicle forecast                                         

72

Figure 4.8: EV incentives in Brazil                                           

73

Figure 5.1: Smart grid development in Brazilian utilities                         

74

Table 5.1: Brazilian distribution utilities                                                                 

75

Box 5.1: Light's Optimus program                                                                   

82

Figure 5.2: Non-technical losses as a percentage of total sales in Brazilian utilities               

83

Figure 5.3: "Smart city" projects in Brazil                                                                                     

86

Figure 6.1: Leading smart grid vendors in Brazil                                                                      

100

Table 6.1: Leading smart metering vendors in Brazil                                                                             

101

Table 7.1:  The next steps and necessary actions                                                                                 

114

Table 8.1:  Domestic electricity sector vendors in Brazil                                              

115

Companies covered in this report

  • ABB (Sui)
  • AES (US)
  • Alstom (Fra)
  • BPL (Fra)
  • Celesc (Bra)
  • Cemar (Bra)
  • Cemig (Bra)
  • CESP (Bra)
  • Choice (Bra)
  • Copel (Bra)
  • CPFL (Bra)
  • CTEEP (Bra)
  • Echelon (US)
  • Ecil (Bra)
  • Eletra Energy (Bra)
  • Eletrobras (Bra)
  • Elipse (Bra)
  • ELO (Bra)
  • Elster (Ger)
  • Elucid (Bra)
  • eMeter (US)
  • Endesa (Esp)
  • Enel (Ita)
  • EDP (Por)
  • Gamesa (Esp)
  • GDF Suez (Fra)
  • Iberdrola (Esp)
  • IBM (US)
  • Impsa (Arg)
  • ISA (Col)
  • Itron (US)
  • Landis+Gyr (Sui)
  • Light (Bra)
  • Logica (Ned)
  • Nansen (Bra)
  • Rede Energia (Bra)
  • S&C Electric (US)
  • Schneider Electric (Fra)
  • SEL (Ger)
  • Siemens (Ger)
  • Silver Spring (US)
  • Telvent (Esp)
  • Terna (Ita)
  • TIM (Ita)
  • Tractebel Energia (Bra)
  • Treetech (Bra)
  • Trilliant (US)
  • V2Com (Bra)
  • Way2 (Bra)
  • Wobben (Ger)

 

SOURCE Northeast Group, LLC



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