Bush, Kerry in Michigan Dead Heat; Proposals 04-1 and 04-2 Both Look Like Winners

Sep 28, 2004, 01:00 ET from Inside Michigan Politics

    LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race for
 Michigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S.
 Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter.  Kerry leads
 Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it
 appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly.
     Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader.  About 11%
 of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will
 vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK).
     Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by Inside
 Michigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group,
 Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24.  The poll sampled 600 registered voters
 stratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history.  36% of the
 respondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are
 ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits or
 had never voted before.  Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%.
     MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization on
 Michigan issues and political races.  Inside Michigan Politics, founded in
 1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletter
 in North America.
     The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10
 days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, this
 Thursday evening.  Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead,
 49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention.  Now, however,
 IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has
 tightened to a virtual draw.
     The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals that
 will be on the Nov. 2  general election ballot: 04-1, which would require that
 any new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voters
 locally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called
 "gay marriage" in the state.
     Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters support
 Prop 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRG
 found when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.

SOURCE Inside Michigan Politics