Gray Leads Fenty in Trial Heat; Rhee, Lanier Ratings Posted

WASHINGTON, Nov. 23 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Less than a year before the 2010 city elections, a new poll finds that Washington, D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty could face a tough fight winning a second term.

• The poll, conducted by the nonpartisan Clarus Research Group, finds that a little more than one-third of the city's voters want Fenty re-elected.

• Mayor Fenty runs slightly behind Council Chairman Vincent Gray in a head to head match-up, but leads a four-way trial heat against three possible opponents - including Gray and District Council members Kwame Brown and Michael Brown.

"Mayor Fenty's re-election base is dangerously weak for an incumbent going into an election year," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus, a nonpartisan polling firm based in Washington, D.C. "While the mayor still has the time and resources to shore up his re-election prospects before the September primary, he clearly has plenty of work to do to win back voters he's lost since the last election."

The poll, conducted by live telephone interviewers Nov. 15-18, 2009. was based on a scientifically-selected sample of 501 self-identified Washington, D.C. registered voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent.

The poll was conducted by Clarus as a public service and was not sponsored or paid for by any client, political candidate, or party committee. Clarus also conducted public polls in the recent Virginia gubernatorial election, as well as for the upcoming 2010 Maryland gubernatorial race. More information on Clarus is available at ClarusRG.com.

Key findings from the Clarus Poll:

FENTY JOB APPROVAL

• Mayor Fenty has a job approval rating of 43 percent and a disapproval rating of 49 percent. Fenty scores highest among whites (60 percent), voters under 50 years old (51 percent approval), and those who live in Wards 2 and 3 (60 percent). Fenty's job approval is lowest among voters over 50 (35 percent) and African Americans (29 percent). His support is weakest in the area comprising Wards 6, 7 and 8 where his job approval is 33 percent. Fenty is much stronger among white women (64 percent) than African American women (28 percent).

• Issue approval: Keeping the city clean and safe are Fenty's strongest issues, according to the poll. "Solid majorities approve of Fenty's handling of two key issues in the District - protecting the city from crime and keeping streets and public places clean and in good repair," said Faucheux.

Issues on which Fenty wins less than majority - but 40 percent or better - approval: Holding down city taxes, improving public education, keeping in touch with average citizens, working to bring new jobs to the city, and providing strong leadership. "Even though they are under 50%, it should be noted that Fenty's approval ratings are higher than his disapproval ratings on two of the hottest issues, education and jobs," said Faucheux.

Fenty's weakest points are bringing people together to solve problems, handling city finances, putting the city's interest above politics, living up to high ethical standards, and managing city government - he rates below 40 percent on these five issues (and in two cases under 30 percent).

2010 RACE FOR MAYOR

• Thirty-four percent of all voters said they would like to see Fenty re-elected while 53 percent said they would like to see somebody new get elected. On this question, 31 percent of Democrats, 44 percent of Republicans, and 38 percent of independents said they would like to see Fenty re-elected.

Fifty-one percent of all white voters polled said they would like to see Fenty re-elected but only 22 percent of all African American voters polled would - a 29 - point difference.

• Fenty runs first in the four-way Democratic primary trial heat for mayor: Fenty 34 percent, Gray 24 percent, Kwame Brown 13 percent, Michael Brown 6 percent, 23 percent undecided. (It should be noted that most of the poll's interviews were completed before news stories were run about issues related to Gray's fundraising and home repairs.)

• Gray leads Fenty in the two-way Democratic primary trial heat: Gray 41 percent, Fenty 37 percent, 22 percent undecided.

In this match-up, Fenty tops Gray among men, whites, voters under 50 years old, and those in the area comprising Wards 2 and 3. Fenty loses women, voters 50 and older, African Americans and the other two areas of the city. In the two-way race, Gray picks up most of the support received by Kwame Brown and Michael Brown in the four-way trial heat.

"The fact that Vincent Gray beats the incumbent in a head-to-head race even though 38 percent of voters citywide don't know enough about him to rate his job performance is an indication that a good bit of Gray's support is primarily an anti-Fenty vote," said Faucheux.

OTHER JOB RATINGS:

• Police chief Cathy Lanier has a job approval rating of 71 percent and a disapproval rating of 12 percent. "Chief Lanier's popularity is very strong citywide and cuts across all lines," said Faucheux. "Her ratings are the best of anyone tested in this poll."

• School Chancellor Michelle Rhee has a job approval rating of 47 percent and a disapproval rating of 39 percent. "Rhee has maintained a net positive job rating despite heavy attacks from her critics," pointed out Faucheux.

• Council Chairman Gray has a job approval rating of 46 percent and a disapproval rating of 16 percent. "Although his approval rating is below 50 percent, Gray has a solid, nearly three-to-one, positive-to-negative approval ratio," said Faucheux.

FOR THE FULL CLARUS D.C. POLL REPORT, GO TO www.ClarusRG.com

Actual poll questions and top line results follow:

I am now going to read you a list of local public officials. Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the job each is doing. If I read a name you have never heard of, just say so....

                              APPROVE    DISAPPROVE   NEVER HEARD/DK

Mayor Adrian Fenty                   43%          49%                8%
Council Chairman Vincent Gray        46           16                38
Police Chief Cathy Lanier            71           12                17
Education Chancellor Michelle
 Rhee                                47           39                14

The District of Columbia will have an election for Mayor next year. At this point, would you like to see Mayor Adrian Fenty re-elected or would you like to see somebody new get elected?

            Fenty re-elected                                    34%
            Somebody new                                        53
            Depends on who runs (volunteered)                    6
            Don't know/no answer (volunteered)                   7

Now, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Mayor Adrian Fenty is handling the following issues -

                                               APPROVE    DISAPPROVE

Keeping streets and public places clean and in
 good repair                                          68%           24%
Handling city finances                                28            58
Bringing people together to solve problems            27            57
Managing city government                              39            51
Living up to high standards of ethics                 35            50
Keeping in touch with average citizens                42            46
Holding down city taxes                               44            37
Providing strong leadership                           40            50
Protecting the city against crime and violence        54            36
Putting the city's interest above politics            30            57
Working to bring new jobs to the city                 41            37
Improving public education                            43            40

The next two questions were asked only of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic:

As you may know Washington D.C. will have a mayor's election next year. If the candidates for the Democratic nomination were (ROTATE) Kwame Brown, Adrian Fenty, Vincent Gray and Michael Brown, which one would you most likely vote for?

       1. Fenty                            34%
       2. Gray                             24
       3. KWAME Brown                      13
       4. MICHAEL Brown                     6
       5. Undecided, don't know            23

If the election for mayor was between (ROTATE) Adrian Fenty and Vincent Gray, which one would you most likely vote for?

         1. Fenty                          37%
         2. Gray                           41
         3. Undecided, don't know          22

SOURCE Clarus Research Group

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