Job Market Insecurities Persist, Threaten Consumer Purchasing

WASHINGTON, Nov. 18 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Consumers in the Greater Washington, DC region are more optimistic about the future of the local economy, according to a poll released today by the Greater Washington Board of Trade. The Consumer Confidence survey found that overall confidence in the region's economy has increased 4 points since April 2009 and 11 points since December 2008. Overall consumer confidence for November 2009 now stands at 60.

"The upward direction of consumer optimism during the past twelve months is a piece of welcome information for the Greater Washington business community as we enter the critical end-of-year holiday buying period," said Jim Dinegar, president and CEO of the Greater Washington Board of Trade.

"Consumers are clearly troubled by the job market, but sentiments about current conditions of the regional economy are considerably more positive than they were a year ago, up 19 percentage points," said Dinegar. "The data also shows that a majority of consumers expect the economy to improve during the next 6 months."

According to the survey, the Index of Current Conditions is at 42, and the Index of Future Expectations for the regional economy has soared to 78. This 36-point gap makes clear that expectations for the improvement of the economy in the next 6 months are much more positive than the current assessment of the economy.

"Analysts believe consumer confidence is one of the most important economic predictors," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group, the DC-based research firm that conducted the study.

Key Findings

Thirty percent of consumers in the Greater Washington market plan to make major purchases, such as furniture, appliances and computers, in the next 6 months. This is down 1% since April 2009.

Fewer consumers in the Greater Washington region believe that jobs are easier to find now than they did in the April 2009 survey. In April, 15% of respondents thought jobs were "plentiful, easy to find," compared to 11% in November.

The majority of respondents - 65% - said they believed jobs were "scarce, hard to find" in both the April and November surveys, indicating that a majority of Greater Washington consumers continue to be troubled by the job market.

In April 2009, 27% of workers reported getting paid higher salaries over the prior 6 months. In November 2009, that number dropped to 18%. Workers who said that their salaries stayed the same decreased by 9%, from 53% in April to 64% in November. Slightly fewer people (12%) expect a promotion in the next 6 months than they did in April (15%).

Despite concerns about employment conditions, Greater Washington's residents were more upbeat about the region's economy that the U.S. economy as a whole.

"Optimism in this region's economic future is encouraging," said Peter A.S. Pfeiffer, managing partner of Tatum LLC, which sponsored the study. "Fifty percent of regional consumers reported positive sentiments on Greater Washington's economic conditions, compared to only 16% on national economic conditions."

More survey results available at:

http://www.bot.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cvvly4ufIDU%3d&tabid=440

Includes consumer attitudes on the housing and job market, perceptions of the economic stimulus package and charitable giving history.

Greater Washington's Consumer Confidence - November 2009

Consumer Confidence Index over Time:

Composed of the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations

• November 2009: 60
• April 2009: 56
• December 2008: 49
  

Current Conditions vs. Future Expectations

• Index of Current Conditions: 42
• Determined by answers to questions about current economic conditions, current
• employment conditions and if it is a good time to purchase major items.
• Index of Future Expectations: 78
• Determined by questions about expectations for economic conditions,
• employment conditions and personal finances in the next 6 months.
  

Consumer Confidence Index by Locale:

• Residents of Northern Virginia: 58
• Residents of Suburban Maryland: 55
• Residents of Washington, DC: 67
  

Consumer Confidence Index by Age:

• 18 to 29-year-olds: 62
• 30 to 49-year-olds: 62
• 50 to 64-year-olds: 59
• 65+ year-olds: 56
  

Consumer Confidence Index by Race/Ethnicity:

• Caucasians: 60
• African Americans: 62
• Hispanics: 57
  

Consumer Confidence in Greater Washington vs. Nationwide

• During approximately the same time that regional consumer confidence has moved from 49 to 60 (according to the Greater Washington Board of Trade's Consumer Confidence survey), national consumer confidence went up from 39 to 48 (according to the Conference Board's nationwide consumer confidence survey).
  

Download the full report at:

http://www.bot.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cvvly4ufIDU%3d&tabid=440

The Greater Washington Board of Trade's Consumer Confidence Index, based on the Consumer Confidence poll, indicates the degree of consumer optimism on the local economy. Consumers express optimism through their perceptions about the economy and plans for personal spending. This value is adjusted periodically on the basis of a household survey of consumers' opinions.

Clarus conducted the regional survey based on a representative, scientifically selected sample of 1,202 adults in the Greater Washington, DC region. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percent. Interviews were conducted via telephone by live interviewers from November 1-5, 2009.

Survey Presented by Greater Washington Board of Trade

The Greater Washington Board of Trade is the Greater Washington region's premier business network and the only local business association representing all industry sectors. Founded in 1889, the Board of Trade enjoys a long history of helping its members' businesses grow by providing content-rich programs, connecting business leaders and marketing Greater Washington's economic opportunities. As Greater Washington's regional business organization, the Board of Trade addresses business concerns that stretch across geographic boundaries, such as transportation, emergency preparedness, green as a competitive advantage and workforce issues. For more information, visit www.BoardofTrade.org.

Survey Conducted by Clarus Research Group

Clarus Research Group is a full-service and nonpartisan survey research firm based in Washington, D.C. Clarus provides a full range of polling and market research services to corporate, association, nonprofit and public affairs clients. Clarus conducts public opinion surveys, focus groups, branding studies and media research. Dr. Ron Faucheux, who also teaches at the Public Policy Institute at Georgetown University, is president of Clarus. For more information, visit www.ClarusRG.com.

Survey Sponsored by Tatum LLC

Companies turn to Tatum when critical business challenges arise because we immediately deliver financial and technology operational expertise via solutions tailored to the Office of the CFO. We leverage nearly 1,000 executives and consulting professionals nationwide to accelerate results and create more value(TM). For more information, visit www.TatumLLC.com.

    Liz Krinock, 202.857.5987 (o); 202.821.5095 (c)
    LizKrinock@bot.org

SOURCE Greater Washington Board of Trade

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