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Fifty Percent of U.S. Adults Would Not Vote for Hillary Clinton as the Democratic Candidate for President
Twenty-one percent of Democrats also say they would not vote for the United
States Senator
ROCHESTER, N.Y., March 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Senator Hillary Clinton is
still the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for President of the
United States according to recent polls, even as Senator Barack Obama gains
ground on her in the race.(1) However, according to a new Harris Poll, half
of U.S. adults say they would not vote for Senator Clinton if she was the
Democratic candidate, while only 36 percent say they would, with 11 percent
unsure. Her own party is not unanimously behind her either, as 21 percent
of Democrats say they would not vote for her. In the all-important contest
for Independents, 48 percent say they would not vote for Senator Clinton,
while 37 percent say they would.
Gender also plays an important role. While one would expect that women
would be more likely than men to lean towards Senator Clinton, this is not
the case as 38 percent of women and 34 percent of men both say they would
vote for her. Even among women there is a divide as four in 10 (41%) single
women say they would vote for Senator Clinton, compared to 36 percent of
married women. Over half of both men (56%) and married women (52%) say they
would not vote for her for president.
These are just some of the results of a Harris Poll of 2,223 U.S.
adults conducted online between March 6 and 14, 2007 by Harris
Interactive(R).
Clinton's track record, political opinion and personality
In looking deeper, a picture begins to emerge as to what critics
dislike about Hillary Clinton. When asked about her track record as First
Lady, just under half (48%) say they like her track record, while 41
percent say they do not. Four in 10 (42%) like her track record as a U.S.
Senator, while 38 percent dislike it. Moving from the offices to the
personal, the dislikes edge out the likes -- by a 45 percent to 44 percent
margin, adults dislike Hillary Clinton as a person and by a 45 percent to
42 percent margin, they dislike her political opinions.
Unsurprisingly, Republicans and Conservatives are much more likely than
Democrats and Liberals to dislike Senator Clinton on these issues. Men are
also more likely than women to dislike her on these issues. There is also a
large generational gap. Those who are "Matures" (aged 62 and older) are,
across the board, more likely to dislike Hillary Clinton. Over half (54%)
dislike her track record as a U.S. Senator and 60 percent feel the same
about her track record as First Lady. But, two-thirds (65%) of matures say
they dislike Hillary Clinton's personal opinions and 61 percent dislike her
as a person. Among the generations, Generation X (31-42) is the age group
which provides her the most support. This is also seen in the 44 percent of
Gen Xers who would vote for her, compared to 23 percent of Matures.
Other personal assets and liabilities
Besides her track records and politics, there are other reasons why so
many people do not like Senator Clinton. Fully half (52%) agree that she
does not appear to connect with people on a personal level, and this number
is even higher among married women (53%), men (56%), Matures (68%), and, of
course, Republicans (73%). This may be her big problem.
There is also an issue with things that happened during the Bill
Clinton presidency. A plurality (45%) agrees that it is difficult to trust
her because of Whitewater and other scandals in the Clinton White House,
while 42 percent disagree. Similar numbers (44%) agree that her handling of
health care in the White House raises questions about her ability and 34
percent disagree.
Nevertheless, the news is not all bad for Senator Clinton.
Three-quarters of adults (76%) agree that she is a very intelligent person
and this is the sentiment across the board. Even 65 percent of Republicans
agree. Just over half (52%) of adults agree that Hillary Clinton
understands family and children's issues, while 44 percent say she inspires
confidence personally. When it comes to her experience, 39 percent say she
lacks experience and is unqualified to be president, but 49 percent of
adults disagree with that statement.
Additionally, Senator Clinton's supposed liberalism is not a major
liability. One area that the Senator has had to deal with has been her
perceived inconsistencies on issues and claims that she has moved from
liberal to the middle and back to liberal again. When asked about her
political philosophy, one-third (31%) say Hillary Clinton is too liberal
and 41 percent say she is neither too liberal nor too conservative. Just
four percent say she is too conservative, but among liberals that number
rises to 11 percent. What the Clinton campaign may have to address is the
25 percent who say they are not sure, including 22 percent of their own
party. This could be a plus or it could be a minus.
While the first votes are still many months away, there are a few
groups that Senator Clinton and her team need to target. First, married
women are consistently more likely to have negative feelings toward the
Senator than single women. Second, those over age 62 have some of the
highest negatives for her -- behind only Republicans and Conservatives.
Since this is the age group that votes in the highest numbers, there is
work to be done here. Finally, the Clinton campaign may not want to use the
slogan "a vote for Hill is one for Bill." Only just over one-third (37%)
feel it would be good to have both Hillary and Bill Clinton back in the
White House.
TABLE 1
VOTING FOR HILLARY CLINTON
"If Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee for President, which is closest
to the way you think?"
Base: All adults
Total Gender Gender/Marital Status
Single Married
Male Female Women Women
% % % % %
Would vote for her (NET) 36 34 38 41 36
I definitely would vote for
her 15 13 17 19 14
I probably would vote for her 22 22 21 22 22
Would not vote for her (NET) 50 56 45 42 52
I probably would not vote for
her 11 11 10 11 10
I definitely would not vote for
her 39 44 35 31 42
I wouldn't vote at all 3 2 3 4 2
Not sure 11 8 13 13 10
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2
VOTING FOR HILLARY CLINTON - BY GENERATION AND POLITICAL PARTY "If
Hillary Clinton was the Democratic nominee for President, which is closest
to the way you think?"
Base: All adults
Generation Political Party
Echo Baby
Boomers Gen X Boomers Matures
Total (18-30) (31-42) (43-61) (62+) Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % % % % %
Would vote
for her
(NET) 36 34 44 39 23 5 68 37
I definitely
would vote
for her 15 11 15 19 10 1 33 11
I probably
would vote
for her 22 23 29 21 13 4 35 26
Would not
vote for
her (NET) 50 46 40 49 69 91 21 48
I probably
would not
vote for
her 11 12 11 12 9 10 10 13
I definitely
would not
vote for her 39 35 29 38 60 81 11 35
I wouldn't
vote at all 3 4 2 3 1 1 1 3
Not sure 11 15 14 9 6 2 10 12
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3
OPINION OF HILLARY CLINTON
"Looking at the list of attributes, please indicate how you feel about each."
Base: All adults
Like Strongly Somewhat Dislike Somewhat Strongly Not
(NET) like like (NET) dislike dislike sure
% % % % % % %
Hillary
Clinton's
track record
as First Lady 48 23 25 41 14 27 12
Hillary Clinton
as a person 44 19 26 45 15 29 11
Hillary
Clinton's
track record
as a U.S.
Senator 42 19 23 38 14 24 20
Hillary
Clinton's
political
opinions 42 15 27 45 13 31 14
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 4
OPINION OF HILLARY CLINTON - BY GENERATION AND GENDER
"Looking at the list of attributes, please indicate how you feel about each."
Those saying "Somewhat/Strongly Dislike"
Base: All adults
Gender/Marital
Generation Gender Status
Echo Baby
Total Boomers Gen X Boomers Matures Single Married
Dislike (18-30) (31-42) (43-61) (62+) Male Female Women Women
% % % % % % % % %
Hillary
Clinton's
political
opinions 45 42 31 43 65 52 38 34 46
Hillary
Clinton
as a
person 45 43 36 42 61 50 40 36 46
Hillary
Clinton's
track
record as
First
Lady 41 35 34 39 60 45 37 33 44
Hillary
Clinton's
track
record as
a U.S.
Senator 38 36 28 38 54 45 32 27 39
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5
OPINION OF HILLARY CLINTON - BY POLITICAL PARTY AND PHILOSOPHY "Looking
at the list of attributes, please indicate how you feel about each."
Those saying "Somewhat/Strongly Dislike"
Base: All adults
Total Political party Political philosophy
Dislike Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % %
Hillary Clinton's
political opinions 45 84 17 43 72 39 19
Hillary Clinton as
a person 45 81 17 44 72 39 20
Hillary Clinton's
track record as
First Lady 41 77 15 39 68 35 16
Hillary Clinton's
track record as a
U.S. Senator 38 75 15 33 65 32 17
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding
TABLE 6
ATTITUDES TOWARD HILLARY CLINTON
"Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements
about Hillary Clinton."
Base: All adults
Total Total
Agree Strongly Somewhat disagree Somewhat Strongly Not
(NET) agree agree (NET) disagree disagree sure
% % % % % % %
She is a very
intelligent
person. 76 47 29 14 6 8 11
She does not
appear to
connect with
people on a
personal level. 52 27 26 34 21 13 14
She understands
family and
children's issues. 52 24 28 34 15 19 14
It's difficult to
trust her because
of Whitewater and
other scandals in
the Clinton White
House. 45 28 17 42 18 24 13
She inspires
confidence
personally. 44 18 27 43 15 27 13
Her handling of
health care
reform in the
White House
raises questions
about her ability. 44 24 20 34 19 14 22
She lacks
experience and
is unqualified to
be president. 39 23 16 49 23 26 11
It would be good
to have both her
and Bill Clinton
in the White House
again. 37 19 18 50 10 40 13
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 7
ATTITUDES TOWARD HILLARY CLINTON - BY GENERATION AND POLITICAL PARTY
"Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following
statements
about Hillary Clinton."
Those saying "Somewhat/Strongly Agree"
Base: All adults
Generation Political Party
Total Echo Baby
Agree Boomers Gen X Boomers Matures
(NET) (18-30) (31-42) (43-61) (62+) Rep. Dem. Ind.
% % % % % % % %
She is a very
intelligent
person. 76 66 79 79 78 65 90 79
She does not
appear to
connect with
people on a
personal level. 52 42 51 51 68 73 41 52
She understands
family and
children's issues. 52 45 53 56 50 28 78 53
It's difficult
to trust her
because of
Whitewater and
other scandals in
the Clinton White
House. 45 36 46 43 57 74 23 44
She inspires
confidence
personally. 44 37 50 51 35 19 72 45
Her handling of
health care
reform in the
White House
raises questions
about her ability. 44 36 43 43 57 67 29 43
She lacks
experience and
is unqualified to
be president. 39 34 35 38 54 66 23 38
It would be good
to have both her
and Bill Clinton
in the White House
again. 37 36 38 43 27 9 67 36
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 8
ATTITUDES TOWARD HILLARY CLINTON - BY GENERATION AND POLITICAL PARTY
"Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following
statements
about Hillary Clinton."
Those saying "Somewhat/Strongly Agree"
Base: All adults
Gender/Marital
Gender Status
Total
Agree Single Married
(NET) Male Female Women Women
% % % % %
She is a very intelligent person. 76 75 77 78 76
She does not appear to connect with
people on a personal level. 52 56 49 45 53
She understands family and children's
issues. 52 49 55 57 52
It's difficult to trust her because
of Whitewater and other scandals in
the Clinton White House. 45 49 41 39 46
She inspires confidence personally. 44 39 50 52 49
Her handling of health care reform in
the White House raises questions
about her ability. 44 50 38 35 44
She lacks experience and is
unqualified to be president. 39 45 35 35 38
It would be good to have both her and
Bill Clinton in the White House
again. 37 35 39 43 34
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
TABLE 9
HILLARY CLINTON'S POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
"Do you think Hillary Clinton ... ?"
Base: All adults
Political
Total Party Philosophy
Rep. Dem. Ind. Cons. Mod. Lib.
% % % % % % %
Is too liberal 31 68 7 26 66 23 2
Is neither too liberal nor
too conservative 41 13 67 44 13 46 66
Is too conservative 4 2 5 4 * 3 11
Not sure 25 17 22 26 20 28 21
Note: Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.
Note: *less than 0.5%
Methodology
This Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States
between March 6 and 14, 2007, among 2,223 adults (aged 18 and over).
Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were
weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual
proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to
adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include:
sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed);
measurement error due to question wording and/or question order,
deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse
(including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used)
and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that
result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a
finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should
be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is
possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not
other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure
probability sample of 2,223 adults one could say with a ninety-five percent
probability that the overall results would have a sampling error of +/- two
percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into
account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and
therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the
National Council on Public Polls.
J29950
Q705, 710, 715, 720
The Harris Poll (R)#28, March 27, 2007
By Regina Corso, Director, The Harris Poll
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market
research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research,
insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident
decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in
performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of
the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online
market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the
world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris
Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and
Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris in France and through a
global network of independent market research firms. The service bureau,
HISB, provides its market research industry clients with mixed-mode data
collection, panel development services as well as syndicated and tracking
research consultation. More information about Harris Interactive may be
obtained at http://www.harrisinteractive.com.
To become a member of the Harris Poll Online and be invited to
participate in online surveys, register at http://www.harrispollonline.com.
Press Contact:
Tracey McNerney
Harris Interactive
585-214-7756
(1) Harris Poll #23 Support for Barack Obama Surges
SOURCE Harris Interactive
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