Deloitte's 24th Annual Holiday Survey Shows Southern Californians are Hopeful About the Economic Recovery, Although Gift Giving is Expected to Decline

LOS ANGELES, Nov. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- After one of the most difficult years on record for retailers and consumers, Southern Californians are more optimistic as the holiday shopping season kicks off, according to Deloitte's 24th Annual Holiday Survey of retail spending and trends.

Fears about the recession are slowly subsiding, with more than half of Southern Californians surveyed (52 percent) saying they expect the economy to improve in 2010, compared with 29 percent responding favorably last year. Moderate optimism is starting to show in shopping plans as 47 percent of consumers in Southern California expect to spend more or the same on the holidays, an improvement from last year's 41 percent response.

However, Southern Californians remain concerned about their financial stability. Deloitte found that 24 percent of respondents in Southern California feel that their jobs are not secure -- a jump from 19 percent who felt this way last year and higher than the national average of 18 percent. Almost half -- 49 percent -- of Southern Californians surveyed feel their household's current financial situation is worse than it was at this time last year versus a national average of 44 percent.

Despite expectations for economic improvement in 2010, consumers continue to reduce their spending on gifts. The average number of gifts Southern Californians plan to purchase declined to 15.1 from 22.9 last year and 22.8 in 2007. The amount those surveyed consumers plan to spend on gifts is down as well, to $391 compared with $469 in 2008, and $515 in 2007.

"Southern Californians have been hit hard by the economic downturn and are still struggling," said Jackie Fernandez, partner, Deloitte & Touche LLP and Deloitte's Retail Sector leader in the Pacific Southwest. "With a state unemployment level above 12 percent and a depressed real estate market, local consumers are taking a very conservative approach to their holiday spending."

Consumers in Southern California, however, do appear willing to increase their spending on two non-gift categories that traditionally account for a smaller portion of the holiday budget: entertaining at home and non-gift clothing. Local respondents expect to increase their home entertaining budget by 55 percent to $259 from $167 in 2008. They plan to spend $170 on non-gift clothing -- an increase of 53 percent from $111 they expected to spend on this category in 2008.

In total, consumers' anticipated holiday spend in Southern California is expected to reach $1,092, a 6 percent decline from last year.

"Consumers in Southern California are reprioritizing how they spend their dollars and getting back to basics," said Fernandez. "Although it will be a lean spending year, we expect shoppers to dedicate more dollars this season to replenishing essential items and making the time spent with family and friends more enjoyable."

Among Southern Californians planning to spend less, the number of respondents attributing at least part of it to job loss and pay reduction rose sharply, doubling to 41 percent this year.

Discount Stores Still Top Destination; Gift Cards Remain Top Gift

Discount stores continue to hold the top spot as a shopping destination with nearly six out of 10 Southern Californians (57 percent) saying they expect to shop at discount/value department stores. Online shopping remains strong this year at 38 percent. Some of the more popular shopping destinations among Southern Californians also include toy stores and warehouse membership clubs.

Traditional department stores continue their downward trend as a shopping destination, falling to 25 percent, and a sharp drop from last year's 33 percent. Despite the shift in preferred shopping destinations, 48 percent of Southern California shoppers are remaining loyal to the stores they like, although they are making fewer trips or buying less at these retail outlets.

Gift cards hold their first-place position for the sixth year in a row, with 62 percent of consumers in Southern California planning to buy them as presents. The number of gift cards they plan to purchase has declined to 4.9 from 5.7 last year, and the amount Southern California consumers expect to spend per card fell to $25.90 from $27.54 last year.

In addition, toys, dolls and games (excluding computer and video games) show strong potential to rebound in popularity this season. Almost four out of 10 consumers in Southern California (37 percent) plan to purchase these items, up from 29 percent in 2008.

The Deal-Seeking Consumer May Turn Up Empty Handed

Consumers are expecting a repeat of last holiday season's deep discounts, and more are planning to shop early. For example, 54 percent of Southern Californians planning to purchase apparel and 41 percent of those buying toys expect a discount of 50 percent off or more. In a sizeable jump from last year, 39 percent plan to do most of their holiday shopping during the first two weeks of December, up from 20 percent in 2008.

"Retailers have been making significant adjustments to inventory since the 2008 holiday season, so consumers expecting rock-bottom, 'overstock' prices may come up empty-handed," said Brent Schoenbaum, a partner in Deloitte's Retail practice. "Consumers in Southern California have been observing this trend and likely know that the products they want will move quickly and may not be replaced. Retailers who are already promoting sales and this year's 'must-have' gifts stand to reap the benefits from these early-bird shoppers."

About the Survey

The survey was commissioned by Deloitte and conducted online by an independent research company between September 24 and October 2, 2009. The survey polled a sample of 10,878 consumers nationwide, with a Southern California sample size of 229, and has a margin of error for the entire sample of plus or minus one percentage point.

For the purposes of this survey, the term "Southern California" encompasses Los Angeles County, Orange County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, San Diego County and Ventura County.

For more information about Deloitte's Annual Holiday Survey, including interesting statistics, historical data and useful links, please visit www.deloitte.com/us/2009HolidaySurvey.

About Deloitte

As used in this document, "Deloitte" means Deloitte LLP, Deloitte & Touche LLP and Deloitte Services LP, which are subsidiaries of Deloitte LLP. Please see www.deloitte.com/us/about for a detailed description of the legal structure of Deloitte LLP and its subsidiaries.

SOURCE Deloitte

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