AUSTIN, Texas, July 7 /PRNewswire/ -- The private intelligence
organization Stratfor said today that the "sheer scale" and pattern of the
London bombings suggested that they were almost certainly orchestrated by al
Qaeda -- and intended to boost declining morale among its followers.
"The goal appears to have been to create maximum embarrassment for Tony
Blair and George Bush in order to impress al Qaeda followers in the Middle
East and elsewhere," said Stratfor's Director of Geopolitical Analysis and
senior analyst Rodger Baker.
Baker noted that many recent statements from al Qaeda leaders indicate
that the movement has been suffering from poor recruitment and low morale.
They have needed another major media event.
"The London bombings clearly give them renewed credibility in the Muslim
and Arab world. They demonstrate that al Qaeda is still active and able to
make its presence known in the major capitals of the world.
"Al Qaeda is very media savvy. Headlines and pictures around the world
about the London bombings will be used as a tool by al Qaeda to flex its
muscles and boost recruiting. They will probably be successful."
Baker said the bombings do not mean that similar attacks are likely to
follow in the United States or other western countries anytime soon. "Al
Qaeda -- if it is al Qaeda -- does not rush these things. It plans
meticulously. The London bombings were clearly well planned and coordinated
over a period of time and successfully evaded the normally very effective UK
However, another attack on the United States at some point is "almost
guaranteed," Baker said, noting that it may follow the pattern of attacking
transportation infrastructure in order to wreak maximal damage on the nation's
EDITORS: Rodger Baker and Stratfor counterterrorism expert Fred Burton
can be reached through Jason Deal at Stratfor (512)-744-4309 or