London Bombings Intended to Boost Sagging Terrorist Morale, Boost Recruitment, Says Stratfor

Jul 07, 2005, 01:00 ET from Stratfor

    AUSTIN, Texas, July 7 /PRNewswire/ -- The private intelligence
 organization Stratfor said today that the "sheer scale" and pattern of the
 London bombings suggested that they were almost certainly orchestrated by al
 Qaeda -- and intended to boost declining morale among its followers.
     "The goal appears to have been to create maximum embarrassment for Tony
 Blair and George Bush in order to impress al Qaeda followers in the Middle
 East and elsewhere," said Stratfor's Director of Geopolitical Analysis and
 senior analyst Rodger Baker.
     Baker noted that many recent statements from al Qaeda leaders indicate
 that the movement has been suffering from poor recruitment and low morale.
 They have needed another major media event.
     "The London bombings clearly give them renewed credibility in the Muslim
 and Arab world.  They demonstrate that al Qaeda is still active and able to
 make its presence known in the major capitals of the world.
     "Al Qaeda is very media savvy.  Headlines and pictures around the world
 about the London bombings will be used as a tool by al Qaeda to flex its
 muscles and boost recruiting.  They will probably be successful."
     Baker said the bombings do not mean that similar attacks are likely to
 follow in the United States or other western countries anytime soon.  "Al
 Qaeda -- if it is al Qaeda -- does not rush these things.  It plans
 meticulously.  The London bombings were clearly well planned and coordinated
 over a period of time and successfully evaded the normally very effective UK
     However, another attack on the United States at some point is "almost
 guaranteed," Baker said, noting that it may follow the pattern of attacking
 transportation infrastructure in order to wreak maximal damage on the nation's
     EDITORS:  Rodger Baker and Stratfor counterterrorism expert Fred Burton
 can be reached through Jason Deal at Stratfor (512)-744-4309 or ).

SOURCE Stratfor