Manhattan and Brooklyn Prices End 2015 at Record Highs

Sales price growth expected to slow in both boroughs, and return to pre-surge levels in 2016, according to the Q4 2015 StreetEasy Market Reports

Jan 29, 2016, 05:00 ET from StreetEasy

NEW YORK, Jan. 29, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

Key facts for Q4 2015:

  • Manhattan's median resale price rose 7.1 percent from last year to $1,002,008, a record high and the first time in history that it exceeded $1 million, according to the StreetEasy Price Index.
  • Brooklyn median resale price reached a record high, soaring 8.3 percent above last year's level to $537,193.
  • Median rent stayed at or near record highs, with Manhattan median rent increasing 4.7 percent from last year to $3,112. Median rents in Brooklyn grew 2.1 percent from last year to $2,630.
  • Manhattan and Brooklyn resale prices are forecasted to increase 0.8 percent and 4.2 percent over the next 12 months, respectively, both a fraction of their 2015 growth. Record high prices will weigh on buyers and increased supply in the luxury segment will dampen price growth in 2016.

The winter chill had little impact on the Manhattan and Brooklyn sales and rentals markets, as resale and rental prices in Manhattan and Brooklyn continued to climb in the fourth quarter. According to the Q4 2015 StreetEasy® Market Reportsi, Manhattan's median resale price grew 7.1 percent from last year to $1,002,008, marking a record high and breaking $1 million for the first time in historyii. Brooklyn's median resale price also reached a record high, soaring 8.3 percent above last year's level to $537,193.

The Upper Manhattan submarket continued to see significant price increases in the fourth quarter, reflecting the high level of competition mounting above 110th Street as buyers expand their search for relative value. The median resale price in Upper Manhattan increased at double the pace of Manhattan (14.6 percent year-over-year) to $641,882. In Brooklyn, prices grew the most in East Brooklyn, where the median resale price grew 18.1 percent to $464,285.

Rent prices in Manhattan and Brooklyn also continued to rise. According to the StreetEasy Rent Indicesiii, median rent increased 4.7 percent in Manhattan to a record high of $3,112, and 2.1 percent to a near record high of $2,630 in Brooklyn.

A key factor fueling higher prices is the lack of inventory on the market, intensifying market competitiveness. In Manhattan, sales inventory sunk 14.4 percent from Q3 and remained 3.5 percent below last year's level. In Brooklyn, sales inventory decreased 13.2 percent from Q3 and only recorded a 1.5 percent increase year-over-year. 

Despite the continued upward momentum recorded at the end of 2015, there are signs of an impending slow-down, suggesting that we've reached the end of the surge seen over the past two years.

The Manhattan median resale price is forecasted to grow by 0.8 percent over the next 12 months to $1,010,243, according to the StreetEasy Price Forecastiv, a significant reduction from the 7.1 percent growth over the previous 12 months. The last time Manhattan saw annual price appreciation at or below 0.8 percent was February 2012. Slower price growth is also expected in Brooklyn. The median resale price in Brooklyn is forecasted to grow by 4.2 percent over the next 12 months to $560,005, just half the growth rate of 2015. The last time Brooklyn saw annual price appreciation at or below 4.2 percent was October 2012.

"For the Manhattan and Brooklyn sales markets, 2016 will look more like 2012 and less like 2014," says StreetEasy data scientist Alan Lightfeldt. "The spike in global and investor demand in 2014 appears to have been fully served. There are even signs of oversupply within Manhattan's luxury market, which has experienced consecutive price declines since early 2015. These are markets that are returning to sustainable growth rates after the party of 2014: expect lower price appreciation in both Manhattan and Brooklyn in 2016."

The complete StreetEasy Market Reports for Manhattan and Brooklyn with additional analysis, neighborhood data and graphics can be viewed at streeteasy.com/blog/market-reports.

Submarket Name

Dec. 2015
StreetEasy
Price Index

Annual
Change

Dec. 2015
StreetEasy
Rent Index

Annual
Change

Manhattan

$1,002,008

7.1%

$3,112

4.7%

Downtown

$1,236,756

6.1%

$3,599

3.9%

Midtown

$865,342

4.5%

$3,307

4.4%

Upper West Side

$1,087,250

8.1%

$3,150

5.2%

Upper East Side

$1,025,749

9.1%

$2,705

5.2%

Upper Manhattan

$641,882

14.6%

$2,331

6.6%

Brooklyn

$537,193

8.3%

$2,630

2.1%

North Brooklyn

$924,181

8.3%

$3,138

3.1%

Northwest Brooklyn

$810,109

8.2%

$3,048

2.9%

Prospect Park

$779,679

7.1%

$2,815

4.7%

South Brooklyn

$394,554

8.8%

$1,595

-1.2%

East Brooklyn

$464,285

18.1%

$2,578

1.6%

About StreetEasy:
StreetEasy is New York City's leading local real estate marketplace on mobile and the Web, providing accurate and comprehensive for-sale and for-rent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages throughout New York City and the major NYC metropolitan area.

StreetEasy goes deeper than any other source, offering New York-specific information with proprietary data and useful search tools to help home shoppers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, as well as Northern New Jersey and the Hamptons.

Launched in 2006, StreetEasy is based in the Flatiron neighborhood of Manhattan. StreetEasy is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z and ZG).

StreetEasy is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.

i The StreetEasy Market Reports are a monthly overview of the Manhattan and Brooklyn sales and rental markets. Every three months, a quarterly analysis is published. The report data is aggregated from public recorded sales and listings data from real estate brokerages that provide comprehensive coverage of Manhattan and Brooklyn, with most metrics dating back to 1995 in Manhattan and 2005 in Brooklyn. The reports are compiled by the StreetEasy Research team. For more information, visit http://streeteasy.com/blog/market-reports/. StreetEasy tracks data for all five boroughs within New York City, but currently only produces reports for Manhattan and Brooklyn.
ii Median resale prices are measured by the StreetEasy Price Indices. Also referred to as the StreetEasy Manhattan Price Index (MPI) and StreetEasy Brooklyn Price Index (BPI), the metrics are monthly indices that track changes in resale prices of condo, co-op, and townhouse units. Each index uses a repeat-sales method of comparing the sales prices of the same properties since January 1995 in Manhattan and January 2005 in Brooklyn. Given this methodology, each Index accurately captures the change in home prices by controlling for the varying composition of homes sold in a given month. Data on sales of homes is sourced from the New York City Department of Finance. Full methodology here: http://streeteasy.com/blog/methodology-streeteasy-price-indices/
iii The StreetEasy Rent Indices, or the Manhattan Rent Index and the Brooklyn Rent Index, are monthly indices that track changes in median rents of condo, co-op and townhouse units. Each index uses a repeat-sales methodology using rentals listings on StreetEasy, comparing the rent price of the same properties across several years. Full methodology here: http://streeteasy.com/blog/methodology-streeteasy-rent-indices/ 
iv
The Manhattan Price Forecast and the Brooklyn Price Forecast predict the change in resale prices one month out from the current reported period. Each forecast incorporates the Price Index for each borough, StreetEasy's comprehensive database of listing prices and days on market - two leading indicators to future resale prices to accurately forecast what next month's resale prices will be before the release of publicly recorded sales data.

SOURCE StreetEasy



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