Moody's Economy.com Study: Housing Market Downturn in Full Swing

    WEST CHESTER, Pa., Oct. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Led by the
 Southwest coast of Florida, house prices in many U.S. metropolitan areas
 could see double-digit declines in the coming months and even into 2009,
 according to a new study that assesses the severity of the unfolding
 downturn.
     Sharp declines, some nearing 20 percent, are forecast by a new study,
 "Housing at the Tipping Point," released today by Moody's Economy.com of
 West Chester, Pa. The greatest price drops, apart from Southwest Florida,
 are forecast in many metropolitan areas of California, Arizona, Nevada, and
 the greater Washington, D.C., and Detroit areas.
     "The housing market downturn is in full swing," said Mark Zandi, chief
 economist of Moody's Economy.com, who added that "to date, the housing
 downturn has been generally orderly and is characterized best as a
 correction and not a crash. Whether the housing correction unravels into a
 crash will largely depend on the secondary or indirect effects from the
 housing downturn."
     Those effects include the impact on the job market, on consumer
 spending via the housing wealth effect, on lending institutions, and on the
 global financial system as mortgage credit quality weakens.
     "The larger these effects, the more serious the blow to the broader
 economy, which, in turn, will reverberate back onto the housing market,"
 said Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com,
 adding, "So far, the indirect effects from the housing downturn have been
 very modest."
     The unwinding of the long housing boom began in the summer of 2005,
 when interest rates began to creep up. While the long-term interest rates
 that govern the costs of fixed-rate mortgages have risen modestly,
 short-term rates and adjustable mortgage rates have risen substantially
 more. The housing downturn has become more dramatic with the departure from
 the market of the "flipper," the so-called buyers who intend to re-sell
 their properties quickly at a profit in an environment of rising prices.
     "All of this has seemingly occurred overnight," said Zandi.
     The study's results are drawn from mathematical models that incorporate
 many types of data, including housing prices and statistics on supply and
 demand, affordability, employment, and population movement.
     Moody's Corporation (NYSE:   MCO) is the parent company of Moody's
 Investors Service, a leading provider of credit ratings, research and
 analysis covering debt instruments and securities in the global capital
 markets, Moody's KMV, a leading provider of credit risk processing and
 credit risk management products for banks and investors in credit-sensitive
 assets serving the world's largest financial institutions, and Moody's
 Economy.com, a provider of economic research and data services. The
 corporation, which reported revenue of $1.7 billion in 2005, employs
 approximately 2,900 people worldwide and maintains offices in 22 countries.
 Further information is available at http://www.moodys.com.
     Metropolitan Areas That Will Suffer House Price Declines
 
                             Peak-to-Trough              Peak            Trough
                      % House Price Decline      Year/Quarter      Year/Quarter
 
     Cape Coral, FL                  -18.6               05:4              07:2
     Reno, NV                        -17.2               05:4              08:4
     Merced, CA                      -16.1               05:4              09:2
     Stockton, CA                    -15.7               05:4              08:4
     Sarasota, FL                    -14.0               05:4              07:3
     Naples, FL                      -13.8               05:4              07:3
     Tucson, AZ                      -13.4               06:1              08:2
     Las Vegas, NV                   -12.9               05:4              09:2
     Chico, CA                       -12.6               05:4              08:2
     Fresno, CA                      -12.5               06:1              09:2
     Atlantic City, NJ               -12.2               05:4              08:2
     Vallejo, CA                     -12.1               05:4              09:2
     Washington, VA                  -12.0               05:4              08:2
     Redding, CA                     -11.8               06:1              08:2
     Detroit, MI                     -11.7               05:3              06:4
     Riverside, CA                   -11.4               06:1              08:4
     Bloomington, IL                 -11.1               05:3              06:4
     Bakersfield, CA                 -11.1               06:1              09:2
     Greeley, CO                     -10.7               06:1              08:2
     Salinas, CA                     -10.3               05:4              08:2
     Santa Ana, CA                   -10.0               06:1              08:4
     Sacramento, CA                   -9.9               05:4              08:2
     Carson City, NV                  -9.8               06:1              09:2
     Phoenix, AZ                      -9.3               06:1              08:2
     Punta Gorda, FL                  -8.9               06:1              07:2
     San Diego, CA                    -8.5               05:4              08:2
     Warren, MI                       -8.4               05:3              06:4
     Allentown, PA                    -8.2               05:4              08:2
     Nassau, NY                       -8.1               06:1              08:2
     Fort Walton Beach, FL            -7.9               05:2              06:3
     Santa Rosa, CA                   -7.9               05:4              08:2
     Ocean City, NJ                   -7.6               07:1              10:2
     Visalia, CA                      -7.3               05:4              08:4
     Rockford, IL                     -7.3               06:1              09:1
     Santa Barbara, CA                -7.2               05:4              08:2
     Worcester, MA                    -7.0               05:4              07:2
     New Orleans, LA                  -6.7               05:4              07:3
     Saginaw, MI                      -6.5               06:1              09:2
     Oakland, CA                      -6.4               05:4              08:2
     Fort Collins, CO                 -6.1               05:3              07:2
     Portland, ME                     -5.9               06:1              07:1
     Fort Lauderdale, FL              -5.9               05:4              07:3
     West Palm Beach, FL              -5.7               05:4              06:3
     Miami, FL                        -5.5               06:1              08:2
     Edison, NJ                       -5.2               06:1              08:2
     Los Angeles, CA                  -4.8               06:2              08:4
     Denver, CO                       -4.6               06:2              08:2
     Napa, CA                         -3.8               06:1              06:3
     Providence, RI                   -3.6               05:3              07:2
     New York, NY                     -3.5               06:2              08:4
     Champaign, IL                    -3.5               05:4              09:1
     Essex County, MA                 -3.1               05:3              06:3
     Bethesda, MD                     -3.0               05:4              08:2
     Boulder, CO                      -2.8               05:4              06:3
     Yuba City, CA                    -2.6               05:4              06:3
     Salt Lake City, UT               -2.3               06:1              06:3
     Boston, MA                       -2.2               06:2              06:3
     Pueblo, CO                       -2.1               06:1              06:3
     Prescott, AZ                     -2.0               06:1              08:2
     Madera, CA                       -1.8               07:1              09:2
     Colorado Springs, CO             -1.6               06:2              06:3
     Grand Junction, CO               -1.3               06:2              06:3
     Portland, OR                     -0.8               07:3              09:2
     Lewiston, ID                     -0.8               07:1              08:2
     St. George, UT                   -0.5               07:3              08:2
     Honolulu, HI                     -0.3               07:2              08:4
     Milwaukee, WI                    -0.3               07:2              08:3
     Hagerstown, MD                   -0.2               07:3              08:2
     Medford, OR                      -0.2               07:3              08:2
     San Jose, CA                     -0.2               07:1              07:2
 
 

SOURCE Moody's Economy.com

Custom Packages

Browse our custom packages or build your own to meet your unique communications needs.

Start today.

 

PR Newswire Membership

Fill out a PR Newswire membership form or contact us at (888) 776-0942.

Learn about PR Newswire services

Request more information about PR Newswire products and services or call us at (888) 776-0942.