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NEWSWEEK POLL: Bush Job Approval at All-Time Low: 30 Percent
---- Sixty-Seven Percent Believe Bush's Decisions Influenced More By His
Personal Beliefs Regardless of the Facts; 71 Percent Say Bush Will Not Have
Support to Get Things Done In Next Two Years ---- Eighty-Three Percent Say
Bush Will Be Seen As Average or Below Average President
NEW YORK, Jan. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush's standing
with the public didn't improve after the State of the Union speech,
according to the latest Newsweek Poll, taken in the days following the
speech. The president's job approval rating hit an all-time low in the
Newsweek Poll at 30 percent. Sixty-one percent of all those polled says
they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at
this time; just 30 percent are satisfied.
Sixty-seven percent of those polled believe Bush's decisions about
policy in Iraq and other major areas are influenced more by his personal
beliefs regardless of the facts, while just 22 percent say his decisions
are influenced more by the facts. And 71 percent say Bush will not have
enough support over the next two years to make a difference in getting
things done in Washington; just 21 percent say he will. The public is split
on whether or not Congress is likely (42%) or not likely (48%) to give
serious consideration to the proposals Bush made in the State of the Union
address about energy, health and other domestic policy.
Fifty-three percent of all those polled say they think history will see
Bush as a below average president; 30 percent say average and 14 percent
say above average. And 58 percent of all those polled say at this point in
time, they personally wish that Bush's presidency was over; 37 percent do
not feel that way.
In deciding whether to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2008
presidential election, among registered voters, 31 percent say their view
of Bush will be very important; 17 percent say it will be somewhat
important and 15 percent say not too important.
Looking ahead to the 2008 presidential election, 49 percent of
registered voters say they'd rather see a Democrat elected as our next
president in 2008; 28 percent say they'd rather see a Republican, the poll
shows. And in potential match-ups, the top candidates still polled very
closely among registered voters. With the margin of error of plus or minus
four percentage points, some of the match-ups are statistical dead heats.
In a potential match-up between Democrat Hillary Clinton versus
Republican John McCain, Clinton beats McCain 50-44 percent, among
registered voters. Democrat Barack Obama beats McCain, 48-42 percent and
Democrat John Edwards beats McCain 48-44 percent, the poll shows. In
match-ups between the Democratic candidates and Rudy Giuliani, the races
are even closer: 49 percent chose Clinton v. 46 percent for Giuliani; 47
percent for Obama v. 44 percent for Giuliani; and 46 percent for Edwards v.
47 percent for Giuliani.
Clinton also does well against Republican Mitt Romney: 56 percent v. 37
percent, the poll shows. As do Obama (56% v. 30% for Romney) and Edwards
(60% v. 26% for Romney). All results are among registered voters.
In choosing the Democratic presidential candidate, 55 percent of
registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say they'd most like to see
Clinton nominated; 35 percent say Obama. In a choice between Clinton and
Edwards, 62 percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners say
they'd most like to see Clinton nominated v. 29 percent who'd choose
Edwards, the poll shows. If the choice were between Obama and Edwards, 46
percent of registered Democrats and Democratic leaners would choose Obama;
39 percent would choose Edwards.
On the Republican ticket, in a choice between McCain and Giuliani, 48
percent of registered Republicans and Republican leaners would like to see
Giuliani nominated v. 44 percent who would choose McCain; between McCain
and Romney: 69 percent for McCain v. 19 percent for Romney and between
Giuliani and Romney, 72 percent for Giuliani and 17 percent for Romney, the
poll shows.
For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates
interviewed 1,003 adults, aged 18 and over on January 24-25, 2007. The
margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points. This poll is part
of the February 5 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, January 29). To
interview a Newsweek correspondent on the poll, contact Andrea Faville at
212-445-4859.
Newsweek Poll
Bush and 2008
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(1/26/07)
N = 1,003 national adults, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: 1/24-25/07
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR KEY SUBGROUPS:
272 Republicans (plus or minus 7)
347 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
335 Independents (plus or minus 6)
801 Those aware of State of the Union address (plus or minus 4)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
837 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
230 Republicans (plus or minus 8)
294 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
284 Independents (plus or minus 7)
332 Republicans/Republican leaners (plus or minus 6)
438 Democrats/Democratic leaners (plus or minus 7)
268 Approve of Bush's job performance (plus or minus 7)
522 Disapprove of Bush's job performance (plus or minus 6)
Notes: Data is weighted so that sample demographics match Census
Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race,
region, and population density.
Reported sample sizes are unweighted and should not be used to compute
percentages.
An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
1. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 30 61 9 =100
Trends(1)
1/17-18/07 30 62 8 =100
12/6-7/06 31 59 10 =100
11/9-10/06 29 63 8 =100
11/2-3/06 29 64 7 =100
10/26-27/06 31 61 8 =100
10/19-20/06 25 67 8 =100
10/5-6/06 Foley scandal 25 67 8 =100
8/24-25/06 28 65 7 =100
8/10-11/06 26 67 7 =100
5/11-12/06 NSA wiretapping 23 71 6 =100
3/16-17/06 30 64 6 =100
11/10-11/05 26 68 6 =100
9/29-30/05 31 61 8 =100
9/8-9/05 Hurricane Katrina 28 66 6 =100
8/2-4/05 36 54 10 =100
12/2-3/04 46 46 8 =100
10/27-29/04 39 56 5 =100
10/21-22/04 40 56 4 =100
10/14-15/04 40 55 5 =100
9/30-10/2/04 38 57 5 =100
9/9-10/04 39 53 8 =100
9/2-3/04 43 49 8 =100
7/29-30/04 36 58 6 =100
7/8-9/04 40 54 6 =100
5/13-14/04 Prisoner abuse scandal 30 62 8 =100
4/8-9/04 36 59 5 =100
1/22-23/04 43 52 5 =100
1/8-9/04 46 47 7 =100
12/18-19/03 Saddam's capture 46 47 7 =100
10/9-10/03 40 54 6 =100
4/03 Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
9/02 41 55 4 =100
7/02 46 46 8 =100
9/01 Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
6/01 43 52 5 =100
1/01 55 41 4 =100
6/00 47 45 8 =100
8/99 56 39 5 =100
9/98 54 42 4 =100
1/97 38 58 4 =100
3/96 28 70 2 =100
6/95 25 73 2 =100
8/94 24 71 5 =100
6/92 Recession 14 84 2 =100
3/91 Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
9/90 37 58 5 =100
9/88 56 40 4 =100
11/85 51 46 3 =100
(1) Trends from 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 from Pew Research
Center; 11/85-6/92 from Gallup.
2. Now thinking ahead to the next PRESIDENTIAL election ... In general,
would you rather see ... (RESPONSE CATEGORIES ROTATED) a Republican
or a Democrat elected as our next president in 2008?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Other
Republican Democrat party(2) DK
Current Total 28 49 3 20 =100
Republicans 78 4 * 18 =100
Democrats 3 90 0 7 =100
Independents 19 42 8 31 =100
Trends
1/17-18/07 28 49 4 19 =100
11/9-10/06 28 48 4 20 =100
5/11-12/06 32 49 2 17 =100
(2) Other party was a volunteered response category.
READ INTRO TO Q3ab-Q11ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I'm going to
describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in the 2008
election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would
vote if the election for president were being held TODAY. First ...
Order randomized for questions 3ab-11ab.
3a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat,
and John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you
be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat;
or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Clinton McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 50 44 6 =100
Republicans 9 87 4 =100
Democrats 86 12 2 =100
Independents 43 47 10 =100
Trends
1/17-18/07 48 47 5 =100
12/6-7/06 50 43 7 =100
4a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and
John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or
McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Obama McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 48 42 10 =100
Republicans 9 86 5 =100
Democrats 78 14 8 =100
Independents 47 40 13 =100
Trends
1/17-18/07 46 44 10 =100
12/6-7/06 43 45 12 =100
5a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat, and
John McCain, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat;
or McCain, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Edwards McCain Undec./Other
Current Total 48 44 8 =100
Republicans 10 86 4 =100
Democrats 82 13 5 =100
Independents 44 45 11 =100
Trend
1/17-18/07 48 43 9 =100
6a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat,
and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you
be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat;
or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Clinton Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 49 46 5 =100
Republicans 9 88 3 =100
Democrats 85 12 3 =100
Independents 42 50 8 =100
Trends
1/17-18/07 47 48 5 =100
12/6-7/06 48 47 5 =100
7a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and
Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or
Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Obama Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 47 44 9 =100
Republicans 7 87 6 =100
Democrats 78 15 7 =100
Independents 45 43 12 =100
Trends
1/17-18/07 45 47 8 =100
12/6-7/06 44 47 9 =100
8a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and
Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat;
or Giuliani, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Edwards Giuliani Undec./Other
Current Total 46 47 7 =100
Republicans 10 86 4 =100
Democrats 75 20 5 =100
Independents 44 46 10 =100
Trend
1/17-18/07 48 45 7 =100
9a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat;
and Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you
be more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat;
or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Clinton Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 56 37 7 =100
Republicans 16 76 8 =100
Democrats 92 6 2 =100
Independents 49 40 11 =100
Trend
12/6-7/06 58 32 10 =100
10a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and
Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat;
or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Obama Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 56 30 14 =100
Republicans 18 68 14 =100
Democrats 83 7 10 =100
Independents 56 26 18 =100
Trend
12/6-7/06 55 25 20 =100
11a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and
Mitt Romney, the Republican. (Choices rotated) Who would you be
more likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat;
or Romney, the Republican?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Total
Edwards Romney Undec./Other
Current Total 60 26 14 =100
Republicans 19 67 14 =100
Democrats 87 3 10 =100
Independents 64 22 14 =100
Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document). Order
randomized for questions 12ab-14ab.
12a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential
nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Hillary
Clinton and Barack Obama. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST
like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Clinton or Obama?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
55 Total Clinton
35 Total Obama
10 Undecided/Other
100
13a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential
nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Hillary
Clinton and John Edwards. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST
like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Clinton or
Edwards?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
62 Total Clinton
29 Total Edwards
9 Undecided/Other
100
14a/b. Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential
nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Barack
Obama and John Edwards. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST
like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Obama or Edwards?
BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS
46 Total Obama
39 Total Edwards
15 Undecided/Other
100
Order randomized for questions 15ab-17ab.
15a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential
nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... John
McCain and Rudy Giuliani. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST
like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... McCain or
Giuliani?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
44 Total McCain
48 Total Giuliani
8 Undecided/Other
100
16a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential
nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... John
McCain and Mitt Romney. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST
like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... McCain or Romney?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
69 Total McCain
19 Total Romney
12 Undecided/Other
100
17a/b. Suppose the race for the Republican Party's presidential
nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between ... Rudy
Giuliani and Mitt Romney. (Choices rotated) Who would you MOST
like to see nominated? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE
ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ... Giuliani or
Romney?
BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS
72 Total Giuliani
17 Total Romney
11 Undecided/Other
100
18. On another subject ... Do you approve or disapprove of the way George
W. Bush is handling his job as president?
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 30 64 6 =100
Trends(3)
1/17-18/07 31 62 7 =100
12/6-7/06 32 60 8 =100
11/9-10/06 31 63 6 =100
11/2-3/06 35 56 9 =100
10/26-27/06 37 53 10 =100
10/19-20/06 35 57 8 =100
10/5-6/06 33 59 8 =100
8/24-25/06 36 56 8 =100
8/10-11/06 38 55 7 =100
5/11-12/06 35 59 6 =100
3/16-17/06 36 58 6 =100
11/10-11/05 36 58 6 =100
9/29-30/05 40 53 7 =100
9/8-9/05 38 55 7 =100
8/2-4/05 42 51 7 =100
3/17-18/05 45 48 7 =100
2/3-4/05 50 42 8 =100
12/2-3/04 49 44 7 =100
10/27-29/04 46 47 7 =100
10/14-15/04 47 46 7 =100
9/30-10/2/04 46 48 6 =100
9/9-10/04 48 44 8 =100
9/2-3/04 52 41 7 =100
7/29-30/04 45 49 6 =100
7/8-9/04 48 46 6 =100
5/13-14/04 42 52 6 =100
4/8-9/04 49 45 6 =100
3/18-19/04 48 44 8 =100
2/19-20/04 48 44 8 =100
2/5-6/04 48 45 7 =100
1/22-23/04 50 44 6 =100
1/8-9/04 54 41 5 =100
12/18-19/03 54 38 8 =100
11/6-7/03 52 40 8 =100
10/9-10/03 51 42 7 =100
8/21-22/03 53 36 11 =100
7/10-11/03 55 37 8 =100
5/29-30/03 61 28 11 =100
5/1-2/03 65 26 9 =100
4/10-11/03 71 23 6 =100
3/27-28/03 68 26 6 =100
3/13-14/03 53 37 10 =100
1/16-17/03 56 33 11 =100
11/7-8/02 60 30 10 =100
6/27-28/02 70 19 11 =100
1/31-2/1/02 83 12 5 =100
9/13-14/01 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(3) Full trendline from 1/04 to present; earlier trends selected.
Approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.
Lowest Approval Ratings for Past Presidents
President % Approve
Clinton 36 5/26-27/93 Newsweek
G.H.W. Bush 29 7/31-8/2/92 Gallup
Reagan 35 1/28-31/83 Gallup
Carter 28 6/29-7/2/79 Gallup
Ford 37 1/10-13/75 & 3/28-31/75
Gallup
Nixon 23 1/4-7/74 Gallup
Johnson 35 8/7-12/68 Gallup
Kennedy 56 9/12-17/63 Gallup
Eisenhower 48 3/27-4/1/58 Gallup
Truman 22 2/9-14/52 Gallup
Roosevelt 48 8/18-24/39 Gallup
Source: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research iPoll database.
19. As time passes, how do you think history will see George W. Bush as
president? Do you think Bush will be seen as an average president,
above average, or below average?
Current 5/11-12/06 9/29-30/05 9/8-9/05 10/9-10/03
30 Average 32 35 35 40
14 Above average 16 19 19 29
53 Below average 50 43 42 26
3 Don't know 2 3 4 5
100 100 100 100 100
20. How important will your view of George W. Bush be in deciding whether
to vote Democratic or Republican in the 2008 presidential election?
Will it be...(READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Bush-Appr Bush-Disappr
31 Very important 23 37
17 Somewhat important 21 16
15 Not too important, OR 16 14
32 Not at all important? 37 29
5 Don't know 3 4
100 100 100
21a. On Tuesday night, did you happen to see or hear any of President
Bush's nationally televised State of the Union address?
21b. [If didn't see address live] Did you happen to see, read or hear
anything about it afterward?
74 Total Aware
49 Saw/heard address live
25 Exposed to coverage of address but didn't see live
26 Not aware/Don't know
100
22. Thinking about the proposals Bush made in his address about energy,
health care, and other domestic policy ... Do you think Congress is
likely or is not likely to give these proposals serious
consideration?
BASED ON THOSE AWARE OF STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
42 Likely
48 Not likely
10 Don't know
100
23. In general, do you think George W. Bush will have enough support over
the next two years to make a difference in getting things done in
Washington, or not?
Total Rep Dem Ind
21 Yes, will 34 13 20
71 No, will not 57 81 74
8 Don't know 9 6 6
100 100 100 100
24. Do you think President Bush's decisions about policy in Iraq and
other major areas are influenced more by the facts or more by his
personal beliefs, regardless of the facts?
Total Rep Dem Ind
22 Influenced more by the facts 45 6 20
67 Influenced more by personal beliefs 42 86 70
11 Don't know 13 8 10
100 100 100 100
25. Since the Iraq war began, do you think Congress has been assertive
enough in challenging the Bush administration's conduct of the war,
or has not been assertive enough?
Total Rep Dem Ind
27 Assertive enough 54 8 27
64 Not assertive enough 31 87 69
9 Don't know/Refused 15 5 4
100 100 100 100
26. At this point in time, do you personally wish that George W. Bush's
presidency was over, or don't you feel this way?
Total Rep Dem Ind
58 Yes, wish it was over 21 86 59
37 No, do not 75 12 36
5 Don't know/Refused 4 2 5
100 100 100 100
D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in
politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or
Independent?
D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the
Democratic Party?
Total RVs
26 Republican 26
37 Democrat 37
34 Independent 34
1 No party/Not interested in politics (VOL.) 1
* Other party (VOL.) *
2 Don't know/Refused 2
100 100
37 Total Republican/Lean Republican 37
55 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic 55
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
you very much for your cooperation.
SOURCE Newsweek
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