NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004

Bush and Kerry In Dead Heat In Presidential Head-To-Head



One Year After Start Of Iraq War, Majority (57%) Says U.S. Did the

Right Thing In Going To War



After Madrid Bombings, 48 Percent Say Attacks Close To

U.S. Election Day 'Likely'



Mar 20, 2004, 00:00 ET from Newsweek

    NEW YORK, March 20 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush and Democratic
 presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry are tied in a dead-heat that, if the
 election were held today, could see a repeat of the 2000 presidential
 election, according to the latest Newsweek poll; both Bush and Kerry received
 48 percent among registered voters in a test match-up. In the Feb. 19-20
 Newsweek poll, Kerry beat bush by 48 to 45 percent, but with a margin of
 error of three percentage points, that result was a statistical tie.
     In a three-way match-up with Independent Ralph Nader, Bush would lead
 among registered voters with 45 percent, followed by Kerry at 43 percent and
 Nader at five percent, again representing a statistical dead-heat for Bush and
 Kerry. Bush's approval rating remains unchanged from the Feb. poll, holding at
 48 percent (44% disapprove), and 46 percent of registered voters say they
 would like to see him re-elected, up slightly from 43 percent in the last
 Newsweek poll (50% disagree).
     A majority (52%) of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of
 Bush, 51 percent say the same of Kerry (10 percent say they "don't know" and
 three percent say they had never heard of Kerry).  When asked which phrases
 describe Bush, 67 percent say he has strong leadership qualities (55% say the
 same of Kerry). Majorities also say Bush is personally likeable (69% vs. 60%
 for Kerry);  says what he believes, not just what people want to hear (62% vs.
 45% for Kerry); that they would trust him to make the right decisions during
 an international crisis (56% vs. 46% for Kerry); and that he is honest and
 ethical (54% vs. 53% for Kerry). Less than half (49%) say Bush cares about
 people like them, (compared with 52% for Kerry).  On Bush and Kerry's
 political leanings, 34 percent of registered voters say Bush is too
 conservative (60% disagree), while 38 percent say Kerry is too liberal (46%
 disagree).
     When asked about Kerry's Senate vote last year against the
 administration's $87 billion request to fund the military efforts in Iraq and
 Afghanistan, almost half of registered voters (49%) say Kerry's vote will not
 affect their presidential vote; 27 percent say it will make them less likely
 to vote for him, 20 percent say more likely. Forty-eight percent say Kerry is
 politically motivated and changes his position when he thinks it will improve
 his image or help him win an election; 38 percent say he is thoughtful and
 changes his position as circumstances change or he learns more about an issue.
     On which issue will be the most important in determining their vote for
 president this year, 24 percent of registered voters picked the economy,
 followed by terrorism and homeland security (19%), health care, including
 Medicare (14%), American jobs and foreign competition (13%), the situation in
 Iraq (12%), education (9%) and taxes (3%). Significant majorities say Bush
 would do a better job than Kerry handling terrorism and homeland security (56%
 vs. 35%) and the situation in Iraq (53% vs. 38%); 45 percent say he would do a
 better job of handling taxes (vs. 44% for Kerry).  Voters say Kerry would do a
 better job handling the economy (47% vs. 43% for Bush), health care, including
 Medicare (53% vs. 37%), American jobs and foreign competition (50% vs. 39%)
 and education (46% vs. 43%).
     One year after the start of the Iraqi war, a majority (57%) of Americans
 says the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq (37%
 disagree).  Nonetheless, 36 percent say military action against Iraq has done
 more to increase the risk that large numbers of Americans will be killed in a
 future terrorist attack, (up from 28 percent in the Dec. 18-19 Newsweek poll);
 30 percent say it has done more to decrease the risk of attack, 27 percent say
 it has made no difference.
     And more than half of Americans (55%) think the administration misanalyzed
 or misinterpreted reports that indicated Iraq had banned weapons (up from 36%
 in a Newsweek poll last May), while 35 percent disagree. People are more
 evenly split on whether the administration purposely misled the public about
 evidence of banned weapons (46% agree, a record high in the Newsweek poll; 49%
 disagree). A majority (53%) says the amount of  money the U.S. is spending for
 postwar operations in Iraq is too high (34% say  it's about right).  A
 majority (55%) also says the U.S. should reduce the number of military
 personnel in Iraq and begin bringing troops home; 27 percent say it should
 keep the same amount of troops, 10 percent say send more troops.
     In the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, a majority (54%) of Americans say
 the attacks haven't had much effect on their opinion of the Bush
 administration's approach to fighting terror; 24 percent say they're more
 likely to think it's the right one, 12 percent say less likely. Almost half
 (48%) say it's likely that terrorist attacks will be carried out close to
 election day in the U.S. (42% disagree) in an attempt to influence the
 elections here. Sixty-six percent say it is likely that more terrorists
 attacks will be carried out against major U.S. cities, buildings or national
 landmarks between now and the November election (26% very likely, 40% somewhat
 likely).
     A majority (51%) says it's likely that other countries in the U.S.-led
 coalition will follow the new Spanish government's lead in withdrawing troops
 from Iraq (36% disagree).  Forty-two percent say in trying to achieve its
 foreign policy goals, the Bush administration has done the right amount to
 involve major allies and international organizations; 36 percent say not
 enough and 14 percent say too much.
     This poll is part of the March 29 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday,
 March 22). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates
 International interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older on March 18-19, 2004.
 The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
     (Poll attached. Read Newsweek's news releases at www.Newsweek.MSNBC.com
 Click "Pressroom" at the bottom of the page.)
 
 
                                 Newsweek Poll
                              Post-Madrid Bombings
               Princeton Survey Research Associates International
 
      Final Topline Results
      (3/20/04)
 
      N = 1,006 adults, 18 and over
      Margin of error: plus or minus 3
      Interviewing dates: 3/18-19/04
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
 
      838  Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
 
      385  Men (plus or minus 6)
      453  Women (plus or minus 5)
 
      107  Ages 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
      284  Ages 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
      260  Ages 50-64 (plus or minus 7)
      158  Ages 65+ (plus or minus 9)
 
      282  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
      287  Democrats (plus or minus 7)
      236  Independents (plus or minus 7)
 
      276  Republican states (plus or minus 7)**
      336  Swing states (plus or minus 6)**
      226  Democratic states (plus or minus 7)**
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS SUBGROUPS:
 
      835  Fliers (plus or minus 4)
 
      401  Men fliers  (plus or minus 6)
      434  Women fliers (plus or minus 5)
 
 
      NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
 
      **REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
      Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
                         ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
      Swing states:  AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
                     TN, WA, WV, WI
      Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
 
 
     1a/b. Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the
           candidates were... (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE OF BUSH AND KERRY)
           George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph
           Nader, an Independent candidate. Who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT
           SUPPORT BUSH, KERRY, OR NADER RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY,
           do you LEAN more toward...Bush, the Republican; Kerry, the Democrat;
           or Nader, the Independent?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Three-Way Trial Heat
                   Bush/Lean    Kerry/Lean     Nader/Lean   Undecided/Other
                     Bush         Kerry           Nader
     Total            45            43               5            7  =100
 
     Men              50            41               4            5  =100
     Women            42            45               6            7  =100
 
     18-29            38            48               7            7  =100
     30-49            54            37               5            4  =100
     50-64            43            45               6            6  =100
     65+              35            53               4            8  =100
 
     Rep              88             8               1            3  =100
     Dem              11            81               4            4  =100
     Ind              35            43              12           10  =100
 
     Rep States       54            38               3            5  =100
     Swing States     43            47               5            5  =100
     Dem States       38            46               7            9  =100
 
 
     1c. Do you support (Q1a CHOICE: Bush/Kerry/Nader) STRONGLY or only
         moderately?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
 
       Total                                Rep          Dem          Ind
             Bush Voters
        32   Strong                         70            6           18
        13   Not Strong                     18            5           17
 
             Kerry Voters
        22   Strong                         4             47          16
        21   Not Strong                     4             34          27
 
             Nader Voters
         1   Strong                         0             1           4
         4   Not Strong                     1             3           8
 
         7   Undecided/Other                3             4           10
       100                                  100           100         100
 
 
     2a/b. Suppose there were only two presidential candidates on the ballot
           and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... George W. Bush, the Republican, and
           John Kerry, the Democrat.  If the election were held TODAY, who
           would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH OR KERRY, RESPONDENTS
           WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush, the
           Republican or Kerry, the Democrat?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Two Way Trial Heat
                  Bush/Lean Bush    Kerry/Lean    Undecided/Other
                                      Kerry
     Current
      Total            48              48               4          =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)      45              48               7          =100
     (2/5-6/04)        45              50               5          =100
     (1/29-30/04)      46              48               6          =100
     (1/22-23/04)      46              49               5          =100
     (1/8-9/04)        52              41               7          =100
     (12/11-12/03)     51              41               8          =100
     (11/6-7/03)       49              45               6          =100
     (10/23-24/03)     50              42               8          =100
     (10/9-10/03)      48              42              10          =100
     (9/25-26/03)      50              42               8          =100
     (9/18-19/03)      48              43               9          =100
     (7/10-11/03)      50              42               8          =100
 
     Note: Trends are based on a slightly different question that was not
           preceded by the three way trial heat including Nader.  Earlier trial
           heats were preceded by questions about the Democratic presidential
           race.
 
 
     3a/b. If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you
           vote for... the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic
           Party's candidate (ROTATE) for Congress in your district?   As of
           TODAY, do you LEAN more toward... the Republican or the Democrat
           (ROTATE)?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                         Rep/Lean   Dem/Lean Dem  Undecided/Other
                            Rep
     Current                 42           49            9             =100
 
     Past Election
      Trends (RVs)
     2/2002                  46           45            9             =100
     2/2000                  44           47            9             =100
     3/1998                  40           52            8             =100
     3/1996                  44           49            7             =100
 
     Note: All trends from the Pew Research Center.
 
 
     4. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
        the following people in politics.  If I mention someone you had never
        heard of before this interview, just tell me.  (First,) what about...
        (INSERT READ AND ROTATE) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable
        opinion of him?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                             Favorable Unfavorable  Never heard   DK
                                                        of
     a. George W. Bush
     Current RVs                 52         42          *          6   =100
     Trends  - RVs
     (2/19-20/04)                49         47          *          4   =100
     (2/24-25/00)                55         36          *          9   =100
     (1/17-19/00)                66         26          *          8   =100
     (10/21-24/99)               71         21          1          7   =100
 
     b.    John Kerry
     Current RVs                 51         36          3         10   =100
     Trends - RVs
     (2/19-20/04)                56         27          5         12   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                57         24          5         14   =100
     (1/22-23/04)                54         25          8         13   =100
     (12/11-12/03)               33         34          16        17   =100
 
 
     5.  Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
         job as president?
 
                                        Approve   Disapprove       DK
     Current Total                        48          44            8    =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                         48          44            8    =100
     (2/5-6/04)                           48          45            7    =100
     (1/29-30/04)                         49          44            7    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                         50          44            6    =100
     (1/8-9/04)                           54          41            5    =100
     (12/18-19/03)                        54          38            8    =100
     (12/11-12/03)                        51          42            7    =100
     (11/6-7/03)                          52          40            8    =100
     (10/30-31/03)                        51          39           10    =100
     (10/23-24/03)                        51          40            9    =100
     (10/9-10/03)                         51          42            7    =100
     (9/25-26/03)                         52          40            8    =100
     (9/18-19/03)                         51          42            7    =100
     (9/11-12/03)                         52          39            9    =100
     (8/21-22/03)                         53          36           11    =100
     (7/24-25/03)                         57          34            9    =100
     (7/10-11/03)                         55          37            8    =100
     (5/29-30/03)                         61          28           11    =100
     (5/1-2/03)                           65          26            9    =100
     (4/10-11/03)                         71          23            6    =100
     (3/27-28/03)                         68          26            6    =100
     (3/13-14/03)                         53          37           10    =100
     (2/6-7/03)                           61          31            8    =100
     (1/23-24/03)                         55          38            7    =100
     (1/16-17/03)                         56          33           11    =100
     (11/7-8/02)                          60          30           10    =100
     (10/24-25/02)                        61          29           10    =100
     (10/11-12/02)                        61          29           10    =100
     (9/26-27/02)                         65          27            8    =100
     (9/12-13/02)                         70          23            7    =100
     (8/28-29/02)                         61          30            9    =100
     (6/27-28/02)                         70          19           11    =100
     (3/21-22/02)                         74          16           10    =100
     (1/31-2/1/02)                        83          12            5    =100
     (12/13-14/01)                        81          11            8    =100
     (10/25-26/01)                        85          10            5    =100
     (10/11-12/01)                        88           8            4    =100
     (9/20-21/01)                         86          10            4    =100
     (9/13-14/01)                         82          11            7    =100
     (8/25-9/5/01)                        51          34           15    =100
     (5/10-11/01)                         50          31           19    =100
     (2/15-16/01)                         56          21           23    =100
 
     Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends selected.
           Bush approval figures for August-September 2001 from Pew Research
           Center.
 
     6. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
        term as president, or not?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                        Yes         No          DK
     Current Total                      46          50           4       =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       43          52           5       =100
     (2/5-6/04)                         45          50           5       =100
     (1/29-30/04)                       45          49           6       =100
     (1/22-23/04)                       44          52           4       =100
     (1/8-9/04)                         48          46           6       =100
     (12/18-19/03)                      46          46           8       =100
     (12/11-12/03)                      45          50           5       =100
     (11/6-7/03)                        44          50           6       =100
     (10/30-31/03)                      45          46           9       =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      46          47           7       =100
     (10/9-10/03)                       44          50           6       =100
     (9/25-26/03)                       46          47           7       =100
     (9/18-19/03)                       44          50           6       =100
     (8/21-22/03)                       44          49           7       =100
     (7/24-25/03)                       49          43           8       =100
     (7/10-11/03)                       47          46           7       =100
     (5/1-2/03)                         51          38          11       =100
     (4/10-11/03)                       52          38          10       =100
     (11/7-8/02)                        49          42           9       =100
 
 
     Questions 7 and 8 were asked in random order; in each question series, the
 order in which the items were read was rotated with item G always asked last.
 
     7. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
        describes GEORGE W. BUSH.  (First,) what about... (Does this describe
        Bush or not?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                           Yes,      No, does not  DK
                                        describes
     a. Has strong leadership qualities
     Current Total                          67            31        2    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           65            33        2    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        59            33        8    =100
 
     b. Is honest and ethical
     Current Total                          54            40        6    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           57            38        5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        58            31       11    =100
 
     c. Cares about people like you
     Current Total                          49            46        5    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           48            48        4    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        51            41        8    =100
 
     d. Is personally likeable
     Current Total                          69            29        4    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           67            28        5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        70            23        7    =100
 
     e. Says what he believes, not just
        what people want to hear
     Current Total                          62            32        6    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           63            32        5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        52            37       11    =100
 
     f. Would trust him to make the right
        decisions during an international
        crisis
     Current Total                          56            40        4    =100
     Trend
     (1/22-23/04)                           56            41        3    =100
 
     g. Is too conservative
     Current Total                          34            60        6    =100
 
 
     8. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
        describes JOHN KERRY.  (First,) what about ...  (Does this describe
        Kerry, or not?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                           Yes,      No, does not  DK
                                         describes
     a. Has strong leadership qualities
     Current Total                          55            27       18    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           62            17       21    =100
 
     b. Is honest and ethical
     Current Total                          53            29       18    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           58            14       28    =100
 
     c. Cares about people like
        you
     Current Total                          52            32       16    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           52            26       22    =100
 
     d. Is personally likeable
     Current Total                          60            24       16    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           67            13       20    =100
 
     e. Says what he believes, not just
        what people want to hear
     Current Total                          45            38       17    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           48            27       25    =100
 
     f. Would trust him to make the right
        decisions during an international
        crisis
     Current Total                          46            36       18    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           52            24       24    =100
 
     g. Is too liberal
     Current Total                          38            46       16    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           32            45       23    =100
 
 
     9. Over his 19-year career in the U.S. Senate, John Kerry has changed his
        position on a number of issues.  From what you know about Kerry, do you
        think this is MORE because ...  (ROTATE ANSWER CATEGORIES 1-2)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Total                                              Rep      Dem      Ind
 
       38 Kerry is thoughtful and changes his            14       62       38
          position as circumstances change or
          he learns more about an issue (or)
 
       48 Kerry is politically-motivated and             71       28       47
          changes his position when he thinks
          it will improve his image or help him
          win an election  (or)
 
       14 Don't know/Refused                             15       10       15
      100                                               100      100      100
 
 
     10. Now I 'm going to read you a list of issues.  Please tell me how
         important you think each will be in determining your vote for
         president this year.  (First,) what about... (INSERT-READ AND
         RANDOMIZE)? (Will this issue be very important, somewhat important,
         not too important, or not at all important in determining your vote?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                       Very        Somewhat   Not    DK
                                       Imp.          Imp.     Imp.
     a. The economy**
     Current Total                      78            18       3      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       77            19       3      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      80            17       2      1  =100
 
     b. The situation in Iraq
     Current Total                      70            23       6      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       63            26       9      3  =100
 
     c. Terrorism and homeland security
     Current Total                      74            20       5      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       69            24       6      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      70            21       7      2  =100
 
     d. Health care, including Medicare**
     Current Total                      71            22       6      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       70            24       5      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      75            20       4      1  =100
 
     e. Education
     Current Total                      72            23       5      *  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       72            23       4      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      78            18       3      1  =100
 
     f. Taxes
     Current Total                      59            31       8      2  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       55            37       7      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      61            29       6      4  =100
 
     g. American jobs and foreign
        competition
     Current Total                      71            23       5      1  =100
     Trend
     (2/19-20/04)                       68            22       8      2  =100
 
     Note: "Not Important" includes combined responses of "Not too important"
           and "Not at all important". Wording for 2003 was different for two
           items: item a -"The economy and jobs", item d -"Health care".
 
     11. Which ONE of the following issues do you think will be MOST important
         in determining your vote for president this year ...  (ROTATE ITEMS
         RATED VERY IMPORTANT) ?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Summary of Most Important Issues
      Total
         24   The economy
         19   Terrorism and homeland security
         14   Health care, including Medicare
         13   American jobs and foreign competition
         12   The situation in Iraq
          9   Education
          3   Taxes
          6   None rated very important
        100
 
 
     12. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
         if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
         better job handling each of the following issues.  (First,) what
         about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)?  (Which do you trust do to
         a better job handling this issue ...  Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                Bush   Kerry      Equal   Neither   DK
                                                  (VOL)    (VOL)
     a. The economy
     Current Total               43      47         2        2       6 =100
 
     b. The situation in Iraq
     Current Total               53      38         2        2       5 =100
 
     c. Terrorism and homeland
        security
     Current Total               56      35         2        1       6 =100
 
     d. Health care, including
        Medicare
     Current Total               37      53         1        2       7 =100
 
     e. Education
     Current Total               43      46         2        2       7 =100
 
     f. Taxes
     Current Total               45      44         1        3       7 =100
 
     g. American jobs and
        foreign competition
     Current Total               39      50         1        3       7 =100
 
 
     13. From what you know now, do you think the United States did the right
         thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?
 
                                        Yes            No         DK
     Current Total                       57            37         6      =100
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                        55            39         6      =100
     (12/18-19/03)                       62            32         6      =100
     (11/6-7/03)                         55            38         7      =100
     (10/23-24/03)                       59            34         7      =100
     (10/9-10/03)                        56            37         7      =100
     (9/11-12/03)                        64            31         5      =100
     (8/21-22/03)                        61            33         6      =100
     (7/24-25/03)                        68            28         4      =100
 
 
     14. Do you think the amount of money the United States is spending for
         operations in postwar Iraq is too high, too low, or about right?
 
      Current                           10/23-24/03   9/25-26/03   9/18-19/03
           53 Too high                           58           56           56
            4 Too low                             3            4            5
           34 About right                        31           31           31
            9 Don't know                          8            9            8
          100                                   100          100          100
 
 
         As far as the number of U.S. military personnel now in Iraq, do you
         think the United States should... (READ)
 
      Current                           10/23-24/03   9/25-26/03   9/11-12/03
           10 Send more troops to Iraq           12           14           16
           27 Keep the same amount of
              troops                             23           29           31
           55 Reduce their number and            56           49           46
              begin bringing troops home
            8 Don't know                          9            8            7
          100                                   100          100          100
 
 
     16. Do you think the U.S. military action against Iraq has done more to
         INCREASE the risk or DECREASE the risk that large numbers of Americans
         will be killed or injured in a future terrorist attack -- or that it
         hasn't made much difference either way?
 
                                 Increase    Decrease        No      DK
                                                         difference
     Current Total                  36          30           27       7  =100
     Trends
     (12/18-19/03)                  28          30           34       8  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                  35          27           30       8  =100
     (8/21-22/03)                   36          25           34       5  =100
     (4/10-11/03)                   28          26           41       5  =100
 
     Note: Trend question wording read, "In the long run, do you think the U.S.
           military action against Iraq will do more to ... "
 
 
     17. Before the Iraq war, the Bush administration said it had intelligence
         reports indicating that Iraq was hiding banned chemical or biological
         weapons from UN weapons inspectors.  So far, however, no such banned
         weapons have been found in Iraq.  Do you think the Bush
         Administration...(INSERT-READ ITEMS IN ORDER)?
 
                                                   Yes      No       DK
     a. Misinterpreted or misanalyzed the
        intelligence reports they said indicated
        Iraq had banned weapons
     Current Total                                 55       35       10  =100
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                                  54       36       10  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                                 50       39       11  =100
     (10/9-10/03)                                  49       39       12  =100
     (8/21-22/03)                                  44       47        9  =100
     (7/24-25/03)                                  41       49       10  =100
     (7/10-11/03)                                  45       41       14  =100
     (5/29-30/03)                                  36       54       10  =100
 
     b. Purposely misled the public about
        evidence that Iraq had banned weapons
        in order to build support for war
     Current Total                                 46       49        5  =100
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                                  41       51        8  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                                 42       49        9  =100
     (10/9-10/03)                                  45       45       10  =100
     (8/21-22/03)                                  43       51        6  =100
     (7/24-25/03)                                  39       56        5  =100
     (7/10-11/03)                                  38       53        9  =100
     (5/29-30/03)                                  36       57        7  =100
 
 
     18. In your opinion, how likely is it that more terrorist attacks will be
         carried out against major U.S. cities, buildings, or national
         landmarks BETWEEN NOW AND THE NOVEMBER ELECTION?  Would you say ...
         (READ)
 
                          Very    Somewhat Not too   Not at  DK
                                                      all
     Current Total         26         40     19        9     6           =100
     Trends
     (5/29-30/03)          45         40     10        2     3           =100
     (10/11-12/01)         48         37      8        3     4           =100
     (10/4-5/01)           39         40     13        4     4           =100
     (9/27-28/01)          33         46     14        4     3           =100
     (9/20-21/01)          41         41     11        4     3           =100
     (9/13-14/01)          43         39     12        3     3           =100
 
     Note: Trend question wording read " ...  national landmarks in the near
           future?"
 
 
     19. In trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, do you think the Bush
         administration has done too much to involve major allies and
         international organizations, not enough, or about the right amount?
 
         Current                    9/25-26/03      3/13-14/03
              14   Too much             8              17
              36   Not enough           41             29
              42   Right amount         44             49
               8   Don't know           7              5
             100                        100            100
 
 
     20. Now I have a few questions about the terrorist bombings in Madrid, and
         the Spanish elections where the ruling party supporting U.S. Iraq
         policy was voted out of power ... Has what's happened in Spain made
         you more likely or less likely to think the Bush administration's
         approach to fighting terrorism is the right one, OR has what's
         happened in Spain not had much effect on your opinion either way?
 
 
         24   More likely
         12   Less likely
         54   Not much effect
         10   Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     21. From what you've seen, heard or read, which of the following do you
         think was the MORE important reason why the ruling party in Spain was
         voted out of power ... (READ AND ROTATE 1-2)
 
         47  Voter fear that Spain will be a target for terrorist attacks as
             long as their government supports U.S. Iraq policy (or)
         26  Voter dissatisfaction with their government for blaming the
             Basques and covering up evidence that the bombings were done by
             Muslim extremists (or)
          2  Both equally (VOL.)
         25  Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     22. Do you think it is likely or NOT likely that terrorist attacks will be
         carried out close to Election Day in the United States to try to
         influence the results of our presidential election?
 
         48  Likely
         42  Not likely
         10  Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     23. The new government in Spain has announced its intentions to withdraw
         Spanish troops from Iraq. Do you think it is likely or NOT likely that
         OTHER countries in the U.S.-led coalition will decide to withdraw
         their troops from Iraq in the near future?
 
         51  Likely
         36  Not likely
         13  Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     24. As you may know, the Bush campaign recently criticized John Kerry's
         Senate vote last year against the administration's request for 87
         billion dollars to fund military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, as
         an example of his failure to support our troops overseas.  Kerry says
         he voted "no" to because he disagreed with the administration's
         Iraq plans. Does Kerry's Senate vote on Iraq funding make you more
         likely or less likely to vote for him in November - OR does it not
         make much difference either way?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
      Total                                Rep           Dem          Ind
         20  More likely                    8             35           20
         27  Less likely                    50            6            24
         49  Doesn't make much difference   41            57           52
          4  Don't know/Refused             1             2            4
        100                                 100           100          100
 
 
 

SOURCE Newsweek
    NEW YORK, March 20 /PRNewswire/ -- President George W. Bush and Democratic
 presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry are tied in a dead-heat that, if the
 election were held today, could see a repeat of the 2000 presidential
 election, according to the latest Newsweek poll; both Bush and Kerry received
 48 percent among registered voters in a test match-up. In the Feb. 19-20
 Newsweek poll, Kerry beat bush by 48 to 45 percent, but with a margin of
 error of three percentage points, that result was a statistical tie.
     In a three-way match-up with Independent Ralph Nader, Bush would lead
 among registered voters with 45 percent, followed by Kerry at 43 percent and
 Nader at five percent, again representing a statistical dead-heat for Bush and
 Kerry. Bush's approval rating remains unchanged from the Feb. poll, holding at
 48 percent (44% disapprove), and 46 percent of registered voters say they
 would like to see him re-elected, up slightly from 43 percent in the last
 Newsweek poll (50% disagree).
     A majority (52%) of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of
 Bush, 51 percent say the same of Kerry (10 percent say they "don't know" and
 three percent say they had never heard of Kerry).  When asked which phrases
 describe Bush, 67 percent say he has strong leadership qualities (55% say the
 same of Kerry). Majorities also say Bush is personally likeable (69% vs. 60%
 for Kerry);  says what he believes, not just what people want to hear (62% vs.
 45% for Kerry); that they would trust him to make the right decisions during
 an international crisis (56% vs. 46% for Kerry); and that he is honest and
 ethical (54% vs. 53% for Kerry). Less than half (49%) say Bush cares about
 people like them, (compared with 52% for Kerry).  On Bush and Kerry's
 political leanings, 34 percent of registered voters say Bush is too
 conservative (60% disagree), while 38 percent say Kerry is too liberal (46%
 disagree).
     When asked about Kerry's Senate vote last year against the
 administration's $87 billion request to fund the military efforts in Iraq and
 Afghanistan, almost half of registered voters (49%) say Kerry's vote will not
 affect their presidential vote; 27 percent say it will make them less likely
 to vote for him, 20 percent say more likely. Forty-eight percent say Kerry is
 politically motivated and changes his position when he thinks it will improve
 his image or help him win an election; 38 percent say he is thoughtful and
 changes his position as circumstances change or he learns more about an issue.
     On which issue will be the most important in determining their vote for
 president this year, 24 percent of registered voters picked the economy,
 followed by terrorism and homeland security (19%), health care, including
 Medicare (14%), American jobs and foreign competition (13%), the situation in
 Iraq (12%), education (9%) and taxes (3%). Significant majorities say Bush
 would do a better job than Kerry handling terrorism and homeland security (56%
 vs. 35%) and the situation in Iraq (53% vs. 38%); 45 percent say he would do a
 better job of handling taxes (vs. 44% for Kerry).  Voters say Kerry would do a
 better job handling the economy (47% vs. 43% for Bush), health care, including
 Medicare (53% vs. 37%), American jobs and foreign competition (50% vs. 39%)
 and education (46% vs. 43%).
     One year after the start of the Iraqi war, a majority (57%) of Americans
 says the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq (37%
 disagree).  Nonetheless, 36 percent say military action against Iraq has done
 more to increase the risk that large numbers of Americans will be killed in a
 future terrorist attack, (up from 28 percent in the Dec. 18-19 Newsweek poll);
 30 percent say it has done more to decrease the risk of attack, 27 percent say
 it has made no difference.
     And more than half of Americans (55%) think the administration misanalyzed
 or misinterpreted reports that indicated Iraq had banned weapons (up from 36%
 in a Newsweek poll last May), while 35 percent disagree. People are more
 evenly split on whether the administration purposely misled the public about
 evidence of banned weapons (46% agree, a record high in the Newsweek poll; 49%
 disagree). A majority (53%) says the amount of  money the U.S. is spending for
 postwar operations in Iraq is too high (34% say  it's about right).  A
 majority (55%) also says the U.S. should reduce the number of military
 personnel in Iraq and begin bringing troops home; 27 percent say it should
 keep the same amount of troops, 10 percent say send more troops.
     In the aftermath of the Madrid bombings, a majority (54%) of Americans say
 the attacks haven't had much effect on their opinion of the Bush
 administration's approach to fighting terror; 24 percent say they're more
 likely to think it's the right one, 12 percent say less likely. Almost half
 (48%) say it's likely that terrorist attacks will be carried out close to
 election day in the U.S. (42% disagree) in an attempt to influence the
 elections here. Sixty-six percent say it is likely that more terrorists
 attacks will be carried out against major U.S. cities, buildings or national
 landmarks between now and the November election (26% very likely, 40% somewhat
 likely).
     A majority (51%) says it's likely that other countries in the U.S.-led
 coalition will follow the new Spanish government's lead in withdrawing troops
 from Iraq (36% disagree).  Forty-two percent say in trying to achieve its
 foreign policy goals, the Bush administration has done the right amount to
 involve major allies and international organizations; 36 percent say not
 enough and 14 percent say too much.
     This poll is part of the March 29 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday,
 March 22). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates
 International interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older on March 18-19, 2004.
 The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
     (Poll attached. Read Newsweek's news releases at www.Newsweek.MSNBC.com
 Click "Pressroom" at the bottom of the page.)
 
 
                                 Newsweek Poll
                              Post-Madrid Bombings
               Princeton Survey Research Associates International
 
      Final Topline Results
      (3/20/04)
 
      N = 1,006 adults, 18 and over
      Margin of error: plus or minus 3
      Interviewing dates: 3/18-19/04
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
 
      838  Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
 
      385  Men (plus or minus 6)
      453  Women (plus or minus 5)
 
      107  Ages 18-29 (plus or minus 10)
      284  Ages 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
      260  Ages 50-64 (plus or minus 7)
      158  Ages 65+ (plus or minus 9)
 
      282  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
      287  Democrats (plus or minus 7)
      236  Independents (plus or minus 7)
 
      276  Republican states (plus or minus 7)**
      336  Swing states (plus or minus 6)**
      226  Democratic states (plus or minus 7)**
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS SUBGROUPS:
 
      835  Fliers (plus or minus 4)
 
      401  Men fliers  (plus or minus 6)
      434  Women fliers (plus or minus 5)
 
 
      NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
 
      **REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
      Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
                         ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
      Swing states:  AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
                     TN, WA, WV, WI
      Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
 
 
     1a/b. Suppose the election for president were being held TODAY and the
           candidates were... (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE OF BUSH AND KERRY)
           George W. Bush, the Republican; John Kerry, the Democrat; and Ralph
           Nader, an Independent candidate. Who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT
           SUPPORT BUSH, KERRY, OR NADER RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY,
           do you LEAN more toward...Bush, the Republican; Kerry, the Democrat;
           or Nader, the Independent?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Three-Way Trial Heat
                   Bush/Lean    Kerry/Lean     Nader/Lean   Undecided/Other
                     Bush         Kerry           Nader
     Total            45            43               5            7  =100
 
     Men              50            41               4            5  =100
     Women            42            45               6            7  =100
 
     18-29            38            48               7            7  =100
     30-49            54            37               5            4  =100
     50-64            43            45               6            6  =100
     65+              35            53               4            8  =100
 
     Rep              88             8               1            3  =100
     Dem              11            81               4            4  =100
     Ind              35            43              12           10  =100
 
     Rep States       54            38               3            5  =100
     Swing States     43            47               5            5  =100
     Dem States       38            46               7            9  =100
 
 
     1c. Do you support (Q1a CHOICE: Bush/Kerry/Nader) STRONGLY or only
         moderately?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
 
       Total                                Rep          Dem          Ind
             Bush Voters
        32   Strong                         70            6           18
        13   Not Strong                     18            5           17
 
             Kerry Voters
        22   Strong                         4             47          16
        21   Not Strong                     4             34          27
 
             Nader Voters
         1   Strong                         0             1           4
         4   Not Strong                     1             3           8
 
         7   Undecided/Other                3             4           10
       100                                  100           100         100
 
 
     2a/b. Suppose there were only two presidential candidates on the ballot
           and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... George W. Bush, the Republican, and
           John Kerry, the Democrat.  If the election were held TODAY, who
           would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH OR KERRY, RESPONDENTS
           WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush, the
           Republican or Kerry, the Democrat?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Two Way Trial Heat
                  Bush/Lean Bush    Kerry/Lean    Undecided/Other
                                      Kerry
     Current
      Total            48              48               4          =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)      45              48               7          =100
     (2/5-6/04)        45              50               5          =100
     (1/29-30/04)      46              48               6          =100
     (1/22-23/04)      46              49               5          =100
     (1/8-9/04)        52              41               7          =100
     (12/11-12/03)     51              41               8          =100
     (11/6-7/03)       49              45               6          =100
     (10/23-24/03)     50              42               8          =100
     (10/9-10/03)      48              42              10          =100
     (9/25-26/03)      50              42               8          =100
     (9/18-19/03)      48              43               9          =100
     (7/10-11/03)      50              42               8          =100
 
     Note: Trends are based on a slightly different question that was not
           preceded by the three way trial heat including Nader.  Earlier trial
           heats were preceded by questions about the Democratic presidential
           race.
 
 
     3a/b. If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you
           vote for... the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic
           Party's candidate (ROTATE) for Congress in your district?   As of
           TODAY, do you LEAN more toward... the Republican or the Democrat
           (ROTATE)?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                         Rep/Lean   Dem/Lean Dem  Undecided/Other
                            Rep
     Current                 42           49            9             =100
 
     Past Election
      Trends (RVs)
     2/2002                  46           45            9             =100
     2/2000                  44           47            9             =100
     3/1998                  40           52            8             =100
     3/1996                  44           49            7             =100
 
     Note: All trends from the Pew Research Center.
 
 
     4. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
        the following people in politics.  If I mention someone you had never
        heard of before this interview, just tell me.  (First,) what about...
        (INSERT READ AND ROTATE) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable
        opinion of him?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                             Favorable Unfavorable  Never heard   DK
                                                        of
     a. George W. Bush
     Current RVs                 52         42          *          6   =100
     Trends  - RVs
     (2/19-20/04)                49         47          *          4   =100
     (2/24-25/00)                55         36          *          9   =100
     (1/17-19/00)                66         26          *          8   =100
     (10/21-24/99)               71         21          1          7   =100
 
     b.    John Kerry
     Current RVs                 51         36          3         10   =100
     Trends - RVs
     (2/19-20/04)                56         27          5         12   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                57         24          5         14   =100
     (1/22-23/04)                54         25          8         13   =100
     (12/11-12/03)               33         34          16        17   =100
 
 
     5.  Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
         job as president?
 
                                        Approve   Disapprove       DK
     Current Total                        48          44            8    =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                         48          44            8    =100
     (2/5-6/04)                           48          45            7    =100
     (1/29-30/04)                         49          44            7    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                         50          44            6    =100
     (1/8-9/04)                           54          41            5    =100
     (12/18-19/03)                        54          38            8    =100
     (12/11-12/03)                        51          42            7    =100
     (11/6-7/03)                          52          40            8    =100
     (10/30-31/03)                        51          39           10    =100
     (10/23-24/03)                        51          40            9    =100
     (10/9-10/03)                         51          42            7    =100
     (9/25-26/03)                         52          40            8    =100
     (9/18-19/03)                         51          42            7    =100
     (9/11-12/03)                         52          39            9    =100
     (8/21-22/03)                         53          36           11    =100
     (7/24-25/03)                         57          34            9    =100
     (7/10-11/03)                         55          37            8    =100
     (5/29-30/03)                         61          28           11    =100
     (5/1-2/03)                           65          26            9    =100
     (4/10-11/03)                         71          23            6    =100
     (3/27-28/03)                         68          26            6    =100
     (3/13-14/03)                         53          37           10    =100
     (2/6-7/03)                           61          31            8    =100
     (1/23-24/03)                         55          38            7    =100
     (1/16-17/03)                         56          33           11    =100
     (11/7-8/02)                          60          30           10    =100
     (10/24-25/02)                        61          29           10    =100
     (10/11-12/02)                        61          29           10    =100
     (9/26-27/02)                         65          27            8    =100
     (9/12-13/02)                         70          23            7    =100
     (8/28-29/02)                         61          30            9    =100
     (6/27-28/02)                         70          19           11    =100
     (3/21-22/02)                         74          16           10    =100
     (1/31-2/1/02)                        83          12            5    =100
     (12/13-14/01)                        81          11            8    =100
     (10/25-26/01)                        85          10            5    =100
     (10/11-12/01)                        88           8            4    =100
     (9/20-21/01)                         86          10            4    =100
     (9/13-14/01)                         82          11            7    =100
     (8/25-9/5/01)                        51          34           15    =100
     (5/10-11/01)                         50          31           19    =100
     (2/15-16/01)                         56          21           23    =100
 
     Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends selected.
           Bush approval figures for August-September 2001 from Pew Research
           Center.
 
     6. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
        term as president, or not?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                        Yes         No          DK
     Current Total                      46          50           4       =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       43          52           5       =100
     (2/5-6/04)                         45          50           5       =100
     (1/29-30/04)                       45          49           6       =100
     (1/22-23/04)                       44          52           4       =100
     (1/8-9/04)                         48          46           6       =100
     (12/18-19/03)                      46          46           8       =100
     (12/11-12/03)                      45          50           5       =100
     (11/6-7/03)                        44          50           6       =100
     (10/30-31/03)                      45          46           9       =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      46          47           7       =100
     (10/9-10/03)                       44          50           6       =100
     (9/25-26/03)                       46          47           7       =100
     (9/18-19/03)                       44          50           6       =100
     (8/21-22/03)                       44          49           7       =100
     (7/24-25/03)                       49          43           8       =100
     (7/10-11/03)                       47          46           7       =100
     (5/1-2/03)                         51          38          11       =100
     (4/10-11/03)                       52          38          10       =100
     (11/7-8/02)                        49          42           9       =100
 
 
     Questions 7 and 8 were asked in random order; in each question series, the
 order in which the items were read was rotated with item G always asked last.
 
     7. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
        describes GEORGE W. BUSH.  (First,) what about... (Does this describe
        Bush or not?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                           Yes,      No, does not  DK
                                        describes
     a. Has strong leadership qualities
     Current Total                          67            31        2    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           65            33        2    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        59            33        8    =100
 
     b. Is honest and ethical
     Current Total                          54            40        6    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           57            38        5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        58            31       11    =100
 
     c. Cares about people like you
     Current Total                          49            46        5    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           48            48        4    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        51            41        8    =100
 
     d. Is personally likeable
     Current Total                          69            29        4    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           67            28        5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        70            23        7    =100
 
     e. Says what he believes, not just
        what people want to hear
     Current Total                          62            32        6    =100
     Trends
     (1/22-23/04)                           63            32        5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                        52            37       11    =100
 
     f. Would trust him to make the right
        decisions during an international
        crisis
     Current Total                          56            40        4    =100
     Trend
     (1/22-23/04)                           56            41        3    =100
 
     g. Is too conservative
     Current Total                          34            60        6    =100
 
 
     8. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
        describes JOHN KERRY.  (First,) what about ...  (Does this describe
        Kerry, or not?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                           Yes,      No, does not  DK
                                         describes
     a. Has strong leadership qualities
     Current Total                          55            27       18    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           62            17       21    =100
 
     b. Is honest and ethical
     Current Total                          53            29       18    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           58            14       28    =100
 
     c. Cares about people like
        you
     Current Total                          52            32       16    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           52            26       22    =100
 
     d. Is personally likeable
     Current Total                          60            24       16    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           67            13       20    =100
 
     e. Says what he believes, not just
        what people want to hear
     Current Total                          45            38       17    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           48            27       25    =100
 
     f. Would trust him to make the right
        decisions during an international
        crisis
     Current Total                          46            36       18    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           52            24       24    =100
 
     g. Is too liberal
     Current Total                          38            46       16    =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                           32            45       23    =100
 
 
     9. Over his 19-year career in the U.S. Senate, John Kerry has changed his
        position on a number of issues.  From what you know about Kerry, do you
        think this is MORE because ...  (ROTATE ANSWER CATEGORIES 1-2)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Total                                              Rep      Dem      Ind
 
       38 Kerry is thoughtful and changes his            14       62       38
          position as circumstances change or
          he learns more about an issue (or)
 
       48 Kerry is politically-motivated and             71       28       47
          changes his position when he thinks
          it will improve his image or help him
          win an election  (or)
 
       14 Don't know/Refused                             15       10       15
      100                                               100      100      100
 
 
     10. Now I 'm going to read you a list of issues.  Please tell me how
         important you think each will be in determining your vote for
         president this year.  (First,) what about... (INSERT-READ AND
         RANDOMIZE)? (Will this issue be very important, somewhat important,
         not too important, or not at all important in determining your vote?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                       Very        Somewhat   Not    DK
                                       Imp.          Imp.     Imp.
     a. The economy**
     Current Total                      78            18       3      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       77            19       3      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      80            17       2      1  =100
 
     b. The situation in Iraq
     Current Total                      70            23       6      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       63            26       9      3  =100
 
     c. Terrorism and homeland security
     Current Total                      74            20       5      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       69            24       6      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      70            21       7      2  =100
 
     d. Health care, including Medicare**
     Current Total                      71            22       6      1  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       70            24       5      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      75            20       4      1  =100
 
     e. Education
     Current Total                      72            23       5      *  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       72            23       4      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      78            18       3      1  =100
 
     f. Taxes
     Current Total                      59            31       8      2  =100
     Trends
     (2/19-20/04)                       55            37       7      1  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                      61            29       6      4  =100
 
     g. American jobs and foreign
        competition
     Current Total                      71            23       5      1  =100
     Trend
     (2/19-20/04)                       68            22       8      2  =100
 
     Note: "Not Important" includes combined responses of "Not too important"
           and "Not at all important". Wording for 2003 was different for two
           items: item a -"The economy and jobs", item d -"Health care".
 
     11. Which ONE of the following issues do you think will be MOST important
         in determining your vote for president this year ...  (ROTATE ITEMS
         RATED VERY IMPORTANT) ?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Summary of Most Important Issues
      Total
         24   The economy
         19   Terrorism and homeland security
         14   Health care, including Medicare
         13   American jobs and foreign competition
         12   The situation in Iraq
          9   Education
          3   Taxes
          6   None rated very important
        100
 
 
     12. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
         if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
         better job handling each of the following issues.  (First,) what
         about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)?  (Which do you trust do to
         a better job handling this issue ...  Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                Bush   Kerry      Equal   Neither   DK
                                                  (VOL)    (VOL)
     a. The economy
     Current Total               43      47         2        2       6 =100
 
     b. The situation in Iraq
     Current Total               53      38         2        2       5 =100
 
     c. Terrorism and homeland
        security
     Current Total               56      35         2        1       6 =100
 
     d. Health care, including
        Medicare
     Current Total               37      53         1        2       7 =100
 
     e. Education
     Current Total               43      46         2        2       7 =100
 
     f. Taxes
     Current Total               45      44         1        3       7 =100
 
     g. American jobs and
        foreign competition
     Current Total               39      50         1        3       7 =100
 
 
     13. From what you know now, do you think the United States did the right
         thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?
 
                                        Yes            No         DK
     Current Total                       57            37         6      =100
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                        55            39         6      =100
     (12/18-19/03)                       62            32         6      =100
     (11/6-7/03)                         55            38         7      =100
     (10/23-24/03)                       59            34         7      =100
     (10/9-10/03)                        56            37         7      =100
     (9/11-12/03)                        64            31         5      =100
     (8/21-22/03)                        61            33         6      =100
     (7/24-25/03)                        68            28         4      =100
 
 
     14. Do you think the amount of money the United States is spending for
         operations in postwar Iraq is too high, too low, or about right?
 
      Current                           10/23-24/03   9/25-26/03   9/18-19/03
           53 Too high                           58           56           56
            4 Too low                             3            4            5
           34 About right                        31           31           31
            9 Don't know                          8            9            8
          100                                   100          100          100
 
 
         As far as the number of U.S. military personnel now in Iraq, do you
         think the United States should... (READ)
 
      Current                           10/23-24/03   9/25-26/03   9/11-12/03
           10 Send more troops to Iraq           12           14           16
           27 Keep the same amount of
              troops                             23           29           31
           55 Reduce their number and            56           49           46
              begin bringing troops home
            8 Don't know                          9            8            7
          100                                   100          100          100
 
 
     16. Do you think the U.S. military action against Iraq has done more to
         INCREASE the risk or DECREASE the risk that large numbers of Americans
         will be killed or injured in a future terrorist attack -- or that it
         hasn't made much difference either way?
 
                                 Increase    Decrease        No      DK
                                                         difference
     Current Total                  36          30           27       7  =100
     Trends
     (12/18-19/03)                  28          30           34       8  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                  35          27           30       8  =100
     (8/21-22/03)                   36          25           34       5  =100
     (4/10-11/03)                   28          26           41       5  =100
 
     Note: Trend question wording read, "In the long run, do you think the U.S.
           military action against Iraq will do more to ... "
 
 
     17. Before the Iraq war, the Bush administration said it had intelligence
         reports indicating that Iraq was hiding banned chemical or biological
         weapons from UN weapons inspectors.  So far, however, no such banned
         weapons have been found in Iraq.  Do you think the Bush
         Administration...(INSERT-READ ITEMS IN ORDER)?
 
                                                   Yes      No       DK
     a. Misinterpreted or misanalyzed the
        intelligence reports they said indicated
        Iraq had banned weapons
     Current Total                                 55       35       10  =100
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                                  54       36       10  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                                 50       39       11  =100
     (10/9-10/03)                                  49       39       12  =100
     (8/21-22/03)                                  44       47        9  =100
     (7/24-25/03)                                  41       49       10  =100
     (7/10-11/03)                                  45       41       14  =100
     (5/29-30/03)                                  36       54       10  =100
 
     b. Purposely misled the public about
        evidence that Iraq had banned weapons
        in order to build support for war
     Current Total                                 46       49        5  =100
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                                  41       51        8  =100
     (10/23-24/03)                                 42       49        9  =100
     (10/9-10/03)                                  45       45       10  =100
     (8/21-22/03)                                  43       51        6  =100
     (7/24-25/03)                                  39       56        5  =100
     (7/10-11/03)                                  38       53        9  =100
     (5/29-30/03)                                  36       57        7  =100
 
 
     18. In your opinion, how likely is it that more terrorist attacks will be
         carried out against major U.S. cities, buildings, or national
         landmarks BETWEEN NOW AND THE NOVEMBER ELECTION?  Would you say ...
         (READ)
 
                          Very    Somewhat Not too   Not at  DK
                                                      all
     Current Total         26         40     19        9     6           =100
     Trends
     (5/29-30/03)          45         40     10        2     3           =100
     (10/11-12/01)         48         37      8        3     4           =100
     (10/4-5/01)           39         40     13        4     4           =100
     (9/27-28/01)          33         46     14        4     3           =100
     (9/20-21/01)          41         41     11        4     3           =100
     (9/13-14/01)          43         39     12        3     3           =100
 
     Note: Trend question wording read " ...  national landmarks in the near
           future?"
 
 
     19. In trying to achieve its foreign policy goals, do you think the Bush
         administration has done too much to involve major allies and
         international organizations, not enough, or about the right amount?
 
         Current                    9/25-26/03      3/13-14/03
              14   Too much             8              17
              36   Not enough           41             29
              42   Right amount         44             49
               8   Don't know           7              5
             100                        100            100
 
 
     20. Now I have a few questions about the terrorist bombings in Madrid, and
         the Spanish elections where the ruling party supporting U.S. Iraq
         policy was voted out of power ... Has what's happened in Spain made
         you more likely or less likely to think the Bush administration's
         approach to fighting terrorism is the right one, OR has what's
         happened in Spain not had much effect on your opinion either way?
 
 
         24   More likely
         12   Less likely
         54   Not much effect
         10   Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     21. From what you've seen, heard or read, which of the following do you
         think was the MORE important reason why the ruling party in Spain was
         voted out of power ... (READ AND ROTATE 1-2)
 
         47  Voter fear that Spain will be a target for terrorist attacks as
             long as their government supports U.S. Iraq policy (or)
         26  Voter dissatisfaction with their government for blaming the
             Basques and covering up evidence that the bombings were done by
             Muslim extremists (or)
          2  Both equally (VOL.)
         25  Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     22. Do you think it is likely or NOT likely that terrorist attacks will be
         carried out close to Election Day in the United States to try to
         influence the results of our presidential election?
 
         48  Likely
         42  Not likely
         10  Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     23. The new government in Spain has announced its intentions to withdraw
         Spanish troops from Iraq. Do you think it is likely or NOT likely that
         OTHER countries in the U.S.-led coalition will decide to withdraw
         their troops from Iraq in the near future?
 
         51  Likely
         36  Not likely
         13  Don't know/Refused
        100
 
 
     24. As you may know, the Bush campaign recently criticized John Kerry's
         Senate vote last year against the administration's request for 87
         billion dollars to fund military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, as
         an example of his failure to support our troops overseas.  Kerry says
         he voted "no" to because he disagreed with the administration's
         Iraq plans. Does Kerry's Senate vote on Iraq funding make you more
         likely or less likely to vote for him in November - OR does it not
         make much difference either way?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
      Total                                Rep           Dem          Ind
         20  More likely                    8             35           20
         27  Less likely                    50            6            24
         49  Doesn't make much difference   41            57           52
          4  Don't know/Refused             1             2            4
        100                                 100           100          100
 
 
 SOURCE  Newsweek