NEWSWEEK POLL: DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION 2004 -- Kerry/Edwards Leads Bush/Cheney 52 to 44 Percent; Dems Receive Two-Point Margin Bounce in Two-Way Race, Four-Point Bounce in Three-Way Race

58 Percent Dissatisfied With Direction of Country;

57 Percent Say War With Iraq Has Not Made U.S. Safer



46 Percent Say Bush Closer to Their View on Gay Marriage



Jul 31, 2004, 01:00 ET from Newsweek

    NEW YORK, July 31 /PRNewswire/ -- In a two-way trial heat between the
 Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters,
 Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President
 Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted
 Thursday and Friday. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo
 ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42
 percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.
     In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six
 points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush
 by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the
 poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic
 National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin "bounce" in the three-
 way heat and a two-point margin "bounce" in the two-way heat.
     In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance
 speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters,
 Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek
 Poll.  In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50
 percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way
 race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and
 Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and
 Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.
     Reflecting the DNC's themes, 27 percent of registered voters say Kerry's
 war record makes them more likely to vote for him (15% say less likely); five
 percent say Bush's war record makes them more likely to vote for him (22% say
 less likely). And overall, 51 percent of registered voters say Bush has done
 more to divide Americans than unite them (39 percent say he has done more to
 unite them).
     Looking at crossover voters from the 2000 election, 92 percent of Gore
 voters in 2000 support Kerry (5 percent say they will vote for Bush and 3
 percent is undecided); 84 percent of Bush voters say they plan to vote for the
 president again (four percent of Bush 2000 voters are undecided, 10 percent
 say they will vote for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader).
     Only 19 percent of registered voters say they paid a great deal of
 attention to the Democratic convention, 29 percent said some. Fifty-one
 percent paid very little (26%) or no attention (25%) to the convention. And 55
 percent of registered voters say from what they've seen or heard about the
 convention Kerry and Edwards would provide the kind of leadership that would
 unite Americans (33% say they would not), the poll shows.
     As for who will handle issues better, among registered voters, Bush and
 Kerry are even at 46 percent on handling the situation in Iraq, but Bush
 scores better on handling terrorism and homeland security (48% vs. 43%).  And
 46 percent say Bush is closer to the their view on gay marriage (33% say
 Kerry). But Kerry scores better on handling health care, including Medicare
 (55% vs. 32%), American jobs and foreign competition (53% vs. 36%), and
 education (48% vs. 40%), the environment (59% vs. 29%) and stem cell research
 (53% vs. 26%), the poll shows. Bush's job-approval rating dropped to 45
 percent among all those polled.
     Regarding foreign policy issues, among registered voters, 43 percent say
 the Bush administration has not done enough to involve major allies and
 international organizations; 38 percent say they've done the right amount. But
 60 percent say the administration's policies and diplomatic efforts have led
 to more anti-Americanism around the world; just 9 percent say they've improved
 America's image around the world, the poll shows. And 71 percent of registered
 voters say the way people in other countries feel about the United States
 should matter at least somewhat (38% say a lot) to our political leaders in
 Washington.
     Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say going to war with Iraq has
 not made America safer from terrorism and 58 percent say they are not
 satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., the poll shows.
     Sixty-seven percent of registered voters say Kerry is personally likable
 (compared to 62 percent who say the same of President Bush), an increase for
 Kerry from 60 percent in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll; 58 percent say he has
 strong leadership qualities (compared to 60 percent who say the same for
 Bush). Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say he cares about people like
 them (vs. 44% for Bush) and 58 percent say he is honest and ethical (vs. 54%
 for Bush), the poll shows. Fifty-three percent say they would trust him to
 make the right decisions during an international crisis (48% say they would
 trust Bush) and 49 percent say he says what he believes, not just what people
 want to hear, compared to 58 percent for Bush.
     Regardless of which presidential candidate they support, 43 percent of
 registered voters think Bush is more likely to win in November, 44 percent say
 Kerry. An increase for Kerry in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, which found 47
 percent said Bush and 38 percent said Kerry. When asked who they would vote
 for if they could vote for vice president separately, registered voters chose
 Edwards over Cheney, 55-36 percent.
     For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International
 interviewed 1,190 adults aged 18 and older on July 29-30, 2004. The margin of
 error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the August 9
 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, August 2).
 
 

SOURCE Newsweek
    NEW YORK, July 31 /PRNewswire/ -- In a two-way trial heat between the
 Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters,
 Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President
 Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted
 Thursday and Friday. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo
 ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42
 percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.
     In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six
 points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush
 by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the
 poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic
 National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin "bounce" in the three-
 way heat and a two-point margin "bounce" in the two-way heat.
     In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance
 speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters,
 Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek
 Poll.  In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50
 percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way
 race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and
 Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and
 Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.
     Reflecting the DNC's themes, 27 percent of registered voters say Kerry's
 war record makes them more likely to vote for him (15% say less likely); five
 percent say Bush's war record makes them more likely to vote for him (22% say
 less likely). And overall, 51 percent of registered voters say Bush has done
 more to divide Americans than unite them (39 percent say he has done more to
 unite them).
     Looking at crossover voters from the 2000 election, 92 percent of Gore
 voters in 2000 support Kerry (5 percent say they will vote for Bush and 3
 percent is undecided); 84 percent of Bush voters say they plan to vote for the
 president again (four percent of Bush 2000 voters are undecided, 10 percent
 say they will vote for Kerry and 2 percent for Nader).
     Only 19 percent of registered voters say they paid a great deal of
 attention to the Democratic convention, 29 percent said some. Fifty-one
 percent paid very little (26%) or no attention (25%) to the convention. And 55
 percent of registered voters say from what they've seen or heard about the
 convention Kerry and Edwards would provide the kind of leadership that would
 unite Americans (33% say they would not), the poll shows.
     As for who will handle issues better, among registered voters, Bush and
 Kerry are even at 46 percent on handling the situation in Iraq, but Bush
 scores better on handling terrorism and homeland security (48% vs. 43%).  And
 46 percent say Bush is closer to the their view on gay marriage (33% say
 Kerry). But Kerry scores better on handling health care, including Medicare
 (55% vs. 32%), American jobs and foreign competition (53% vs. 36%), and
 education (48% vs. 40%), the environment (59% vs. 29%) and stem cell research
 (53% vs. 26%), the poll shows. Bush's job-approval rating dropped to 45
 percent among all those polled.
     Regarding foreign policy issues, among registered voters, 43 percent say
 the Bush administration has not done enough to involve major allies and
 international organizations; 38 percent say they've done the right amount. But
 60 percent say the administration's policies and diplomatic efforts have led
 to more anti-Americanism around the world; just 9 percent say they've improved
 America's image around the world, the poll shows. And 71 percent of registered
 voters say the way people in other countries feel about the United States
 should matter at least somewhat (38% say a lot) to our political leaders in
 Washington.
     Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say going to war with Iraq has
 not made America safer from terrorism and 58 percent say they are not
 satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., the poll shows.
     Sixty-seven percent of registered voters say Kerry is personally likable
 (compared to 62 percent who say the same of President Bush), an increase for
 Kerry from 60 percent in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll; 58 percent say he has
 strong leadership qualities (compared to 60 percent who say the same for
 Bush). Fifty-seven percent of registered voters say he cares about people like
 them (vs. 44% for Bush) and 58 percent say he is honest and ethical (vs. 54%
 for Bush), the poll shows. Fifty-three percent say they would trust him to
 make the right decisions during an international crisis (48% say they would
 trust Bush) and 49 percent say he says what he believes, not just what people
 want to hear, compared to 58 percent for Bush.
     Regardless of which presidential candidate they support, 43 percent of
 registered voters think Bush is more likely to win in November, 44 percent say
 Kerry. An increase for Kerry in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, which found 47
 percent said Bush and 38 percent said Kerry. When asked who they would vote
 for if they could vote for vice president separately, registered voters chose
 Edwards over Cheney, 55-36 percent.
     For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International
 interviewed 1,190 adults aged 18 and older on July 29-30, 2004. The margin of
 error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the August 9
 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, August 2).
 
 SOURCE  Newsweek