NEWSWEEK POLL: REPUBLICAN CONVENTION 2004 Bush/Cheney Lead Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 Percent; in a Three-Way Trial Heat,

Bush/Cheney Receive 13-Point Margin Bounce



Bush Approval Rating Rises to 52 Percent; First Time Above 50 Since January;

Majority (53%) Wants to See Him Re-Elected-Highest Since May 2003



27 Percent of Registered Voters Think Bush/Cheney Campaign Is Behind Swift

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    NEW YORK, Sept. 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Immediately following the Republican
 National Convention in New York, the latest Newsweek Poll shows that, in a
 two-way presidential trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket would win over a
 Kerry/Edwards ticket by 54 percent vs. 43 percent among registered voters.  In
 a three-way trial heat, including Green Party Candidate Ralph Nader, the
 Bush/Cheney ticket would still win 52 percent to 41 percent for Kerry/Edwards
 and 3 percent for Nader/Camejo among registered voters.  That represents a
 13-point margin bounce for Bush/Cheney since an August 5-10 poll conducted by
 Princeton Survey Research Associates International for the Pew Research
 Center.
     And even though more Americans (49%) say they are dissatisfied with the
 way things are going in the U.S. at this time (43% are satisfied), President
 George W. Bush's approval rating has gone up to 52 percent, a seven-point
 increase since the last Newsweek Poll (July 29-30), and the first time it's
 topped 50 percent since January. Also 53 percent of registered voters say the
 would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term.  The last time a
 majority of Americans wanted to see the president re-elected was May 2003.
     In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think
 President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (65% vs. 47%), is
 more honest and ethical (62% vs. 47%), says what he believes and not just what
 people want to hear (66% vs. 42%), would trust him to make the right decisions
 during an international crisis (57% vs. 44%), shares their values (54% vs.
 42%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%).  In addition, more registered
 voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on various
 issues: terrorism and homeland security (60% vs. 32%), the situation in Iraq
 (55% vs. 37%), foreign policy (54% vs. 38%), taxes (52% vs. 38%), economy (49%
 vs. 43%), education (48% vs. 42%), and gay marriage (44% vs. 36%).  More
 people say Sen. Kerry would do a better job than President Bush on healthcare,
 including Medicare (45% vs. 43%) and the environment (50% vs. 36%).
     Two months before the election, more registered voters (28%) say terrorism
 and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote.
 Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 13 percent say healthcare and only 11
 percent say the situation in Iraq.  On that subject, a majority of registered
 voters (55%) think that the U.S. did the right thing in talking military
 action in Iraq, though 50 percent say the war has not made Americans safer
 from terrorism (45% think it has).  And, among registered voters, 44 percent
 think Saddam Hussein's regime was not directly involved in 9-11 (42% say it
 was).
     Despite the four-day convention, a strong 60-percent majority of
 registered voters say they saw none of (32%) or very little (28%) coverage of
 the RNC on television last week.  Only 40 percent say they saw some of it
 (24%) or a great deal (16%).  And only 36 percent say they now have a more
 favorable opinion of the Republican Party, with 27 percent saying they have a
 less favorable opinion.  Of Independents, 29 percent said they have a more
 favorable opinion of the Republicans and 27 percent said less favorable.
 Following the Democratic convention in July, 41 percent who said they had a
 more favorable opinion of the Democrats.  Only 24 percent said they had a less
 favorable opinion.  And of the 45 percent of registered voters who said they
 watched all or part of the President's speech, 37 percent said they had a more
 favorable opinion of him, while 18 percent said it was less favorable.
     As to the presidential candidates' military service, though 75 percent of
 registered voters say what they've seen or heard about Bush's military service
 will not have much effect on their vote, and 62 percent say the same about
 Kerry's military service in Vietnam, 75 percent of registered voters have seen
 or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a veterans' group questioning
 Kerry's military record.  And 21 percent say those ads are generally accurate.
 Thirty-nine percent say they are misleading or distorted.  Only 25 percent are
 not aware of those ads.  Twenty-seven percent of registered voters think the
 Bush/Cheney campaign is behind the ads, while 38 percent think they were
 produced independently.  (However, 26 percent of military households who have
 seen or heard about John Kerry's military record say they are less likely to
 vote for him).
     Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, a majority of registered
 voters (50%) said they would like to see former New York City Mayor Rudy
 Giuliani run for president in 2008 (65% of Republicans), followed by Arizona
 Sen. John McCain (48%, 47% of Republicans), and Arnold Schwarzenegger (22%,
 30% of Republicans), if the Constitution were changed to allow foreign-born
 U.S. citizens to run.
     This poll is part of the September 13 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands
 Monday, September 6). For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research
 Associates International interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older on Sept.
 2-3, 2004.  The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.
 
     (Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com.  Click
 "Pressroom" at the bottom of the page.)
 
      Newsweek Poll: Post-Republican Convention, Princeton Survey Research
                            Associates International
 
                             Final Topline Results
                                    (9/4/04)
 
      N = 1,008 Registered Voters, 18 and over
      Margin of error: plus or minus 4
      Interviewing dates: September 2-3, 2004
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
      1,188     Total adults (plus or minus 3)
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
      1,008     Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
 
      505  Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
      503  Friday interviews  (plus or minus 5)
 
      374  Republicans (plus or minus 6)
      303  Democrats (plus or minus 6)
      300  Independents (plus or minus 6)
 
      476  Men (plus or minus 5)
      532  Women (plus or minus 5)
 
      112  18-29 (plus or minus 10)
      349  30-49 (plus or minus 6)
      516  50+ (plus or minus 5)
 
      283  Southern White (plus or minus 7)
      559  Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
      144  Non-White (plus or minus 8)
 
      417  Military households (plus or minus 6)
      578  Non-military households (plus or minus 5)
 
      310  Republican states (plus or minus 6)
      409  Swing states (plus or minus 6)
      289  Democratic states (plus or minus 7)
 
      541  Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
      403  Kerry/Edward supporters  (plus or minus 6)
 
      SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR SUBGROUPS OF REGISTERED VOTERS
      INTERVIEWED FRIDAY
 
      187  Republicans (plus or minus 8)
      139  Democrats (plus or minus 9)
      165  Independents (plus or minus 8)
 
      NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
 
      **REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
      Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
      ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
      Swing states:  AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
      TN, WA, WV, WI
      Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
 
      Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
      1a/b.     Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the
                following three choices for president and vice president...
                (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the
                Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and
                Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the Independent or third party
                candidates. Who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
                BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE
                ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney,
                the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and
                Camejo?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Three-Way Trial Heat
                           Total Bush  Total Kerry  Total Nader   Undec./
                            /Cheney     /Edwards     /Camejo      Other
 
     Current Total             52           41            3         4      =100
 
     Thursday interviews       49           43            3         5      =100
     Friday interviews         54           38            4         4      =100
 
     Republicans               94            4            1         1      =100
     Democrats                 14           82            1         3      =100
     Independents              45           40            9         6      =100
 
     Men                       54           39            4         3      =100
     Women                     50           43            2         5      =100
 
     18-29                     45           45            9         1      =100
     30-49                     56           37            3         4      =100
     50+                       50           44            1         5      =100
 
     Southern White            66           30            1         3      =100
     Non-Southern White        51           41            4         4      =100
     Non-White                 34           56            4         6      =100
 
     Military households       58           36            2         4      =100
     Non-military households   48           43            4         5      =100
 
     Republican states         56           37            2         5      =100
     Swing states              51           42            3         4      =100
     Democratic states         47           44            5         4      =100
 
     Trends
     (8/5-10/04)               45           47            2         6      =100
     (7/29-30/04)              42           49            3         6      =100
     (7/8-9/04)                44           47            3         6      =100
     (5/13-14/04)              42           43            5        10      =100
     (4/8-9/04)                42           46            4         8      =100
     (3/25-26/04)              45           43            5         7      =100
     (3/18-19/04)              45           43            5         7      =100
 
      Note:  August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center.  July 29-30,
      2004 poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention
      and should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce.  Trends
      before 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different question wording that did not
      include vice presidential candidates' names.
 
      1c.  Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
           Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
 
     Candidate Preference/Strength of Support
     Total                8/5-10/04  7/29-30/04
 7/8-9/04  5/13-14/04  4/8-9/04
            Bush/Cheney
             Voters
     39     Strong           32          30         31         24          28
     13     Not Strong       13          12         13         18          14
 
            Kerry/Edwards
             Voters
     25     Strong           28          31         25         22          21
     16     Not Strong       19          18         22         21          25
 
            Nader/Camejo
             Voters
      1     Strong            1           *          1          1           1
      2     Not Strong        1           3          2          4           2
 
      4     Undecided/Other   6           6          6         10           8
     100                    100         100        100        100         100
 
      Note: August 5-10, 2004 trend from Pew Research Center.  July 29-30, 2004
      poll conducted during the week of the Democratic National Convention and
      should not be used to estimate Bush's post-convention bounce.  Trends
      before 7/8-9/04 based on results that did not include vice presidential
      candidates.
 
     Strength of Support by
      Candidate Preference
                                        Bush/Cheney         Kerry/Edwards
                                         Supporters          Supporters
     Strength of Support
     Strong                                 74                   62
     Not Strong                             26                   38
                                           100                  100
     Number of Interviews                 (541)                (403)
 
      2a/b.     Suppose there were only two choices for president and vice
                president and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND
                ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, and
                John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats.  If the election
                were held TODAY, who would you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT
                BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of
                TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush and Cheney, the
                Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Two-Way Trial Heat
                            Total Bush     Total Kerry     Undecided/Other
                             /Cheney        /Edwards
 
     Current Total              54             43                 3        =100
 
     Thursday interviews        52             46                 2        =100
     Friday interviews          56             40                 4        =100
 
      3.   Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
           of the following people in politics.  If I mention someone you had
           never heard of before this interview, just tell me.  (First,) what
           about... (INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND
           ROTATE ITEMS C & D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
           of him?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                         Favorable   Unfavorable   Never heard of   DK
     a. George W. Bush
     Current RVs            55           40              *           5   =100
     Trends - RVs
     (7/29-30/04)           48           48              0           4   =100
     (7/8-9/04)             51           45              *           4   =100
     (5/13-14/04)           46           46              0           8   =100
     (4/8-9/04)             48           46              *           6   =100
     (3/25-26/04)           51           44              0           5   =100
     (3/18-19/04)           52           42              *           6   =100
     (2/19-20/04)           49           47              *           4   =100
     (2/24-25/00)           55           36              *           9   =100
     (1/17-19/00)           66           26              *           8   =100
     (10/21-24/99)          71           21              1           7   =100
 
     b. John Kerry
     Current RVs            45           46              *        9      =100
     Trends - RVs
     (7/29-30/04)           53           37              2        8      =100
     (7/8-9/04)             52           36              3        9      =100
     (5/13-14/04)           47           36              3       14      =100
     (4/8-9/04)             51           34              3       12      =100
     (3/25-26/04)           51           35              2       12      =100
     (3/18-19/04)           51           36              3       10      =100
     (2/19-20/04)           56           27              5       12      =100
     (1/29-30/04)           57           24              5       14      =100
     (1/22-23/04)           54           25              8       13      =100
     (12/11-12/03)          33           34             16       17      =100
 
     c. Dick Cheney
     Current RVs            50           40              1        9      =100
     Trend - RVs
     (7/29-30/04)           43           46              2        9      =100
     (7/8-9/04)             46           43              2        9      =100
     (2/19-20/04)           44           44              3        9      =100
 
     d. John Edwards
     Current RVs            46           33              5       16      =100
     Trends - RVs
     (7/29-30/04)           52           28              6       14      =100
     (7/8-9/04)             52           25              8       15      =100
     (2/19-20/04)           52           19             11       18      =100
     (1/29-30/04)           42           27             12       19      =100
     (1/22-23/04)           46           23             14       17      =100
     (12/11-12/03)          27           25             23       25      =100
 
      4.   Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in
           the United States at this time?
 
      BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
 
                            Satisfied        Dissatisfied         DK
     Current Total              43                49               8      =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)               36                58               6      =100
     (7/8-9/04)                 40                54               6      =100
     (5/13-14/04) Prisoner abuse
                   scandal      30                62               8      =100
     (4/8-9/04)                 36                59               5      =100
     (1/22-23/04)               43                52               5      =100
     (1/8-9/04)                 46                47               7      =100
     (12/18-19/03) Saddam's
                    capture     46                47               7      =100
     (10/9-10/03)               40                54               6      =100
     (4/03) Iraq War            50                41               9      =100
     (9/02)                     41                55               4      =100
     (7/02)                     46                46               8      =100
     (9/01) Terrorist attacks   57                34               9      =100
     (6/01)                     43                52               5      =100
     (3/01)                     47                45               8      =100
     (1/01)                     55                41               4      =100
     (6/00)                     47                45               8      =100
     (3/00)                     56                36               8      =100
     (8/99)                     56                39               5      =100
     (9/98)                     54                42               4      =100
     (1/97)                     38                58               4      =100
     (3/96)                     28                70               2      =100
     (6/95)                     25                73               2      =100
     (8/94)                     24                71               5      =100
     (6/92) Recession           14                84               2      =100
     (3/91) Gulf War Victory    66                31               3      =100
     (9/90)                     37                58               5      =100
     (9/88)                     56                40               4      =100
     (11/85)                    51                46               3      =100
     (12/81) Recession          27                67               6      =100
     (7/79)  Energy/Economic
              Crisis            12                84               4      =100
 
      Note:     Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research
                Center; 7/79-6/92 Gallup.
 
      5.   Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
           his job as president?
 
      BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
 
                     Approve     Disapprove       DK
     Current Total      52           41            7        =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)       45           49            6        =100
     (7/8-9/04)         48           46            6        =100
     (5/13-14/04)       42           52            6        =100
     (4/8-9/04)         49           45            6        =100
     (3/25-26/04)       49           45            6        =100
     (3/18-19/04)       48           44            8        =100
     (2/19-20/04)       48           44            8        =100
     (2/5-6/04)         48           45            7        =100
     (1/29-30/04)       49           44            7        =100
     (1/22-23/04)       50           44            6        =100
     (1/8-9/04)         54           41            5        =100
     (12/18-19/03)      54           38            8        =100
     (12/11-12/03)      51           42            7        =100
     (11/6-7/03)        52           40            8        =100
     (10/30-31/03)      51           39           10        =100
     (10/23-24/03)      51           40            9        =100
     (10/9-10/03)       51           42            7        =100
     (9/25-26/03)       52           40            8        =100
     (9/18-19/03)       51           42            7        =100
     (9/11-12/03)       52           39            9        =100
     (8/21-22/03)       53           36           11        =100
     (7/24-25/03)       57           34            9        =100
     (7/10-11/03)       55           37            8        =100
     (5/29-30/03)       61           28           11        =100
     (5/1-2/03)         65           26            9        =100
     (4/10-11/03)       71           23            6        =100
     (3/27-28/03)       68           26            6        =100
     (3/13-14/03)       53           37           10        =100
     (2/6-7/03)         61           31            8        =100
     (1/23-24/03)       55           38            7        =100
     (1/16-17/03)       56           33           11        =100
     (11/7-8/02)        60           30           10        =100
     (10/24-25/02)      61           29           10        =100
     (10/11-12/02)      61           29           10        =100
     (9/26-27/02)       65           27            8        =100
     (9/12-13/02)       70           23            7        =100
     (8/28-29/02)       61           30            9        =100
     (6/27-28/02)       70           19           11        =100
     (3/21-22/02)       74           16           10        =100
     (1/31-2/1/02)      83           12            5        =100
     (12/13-14/01)      81           11            8        =100
     (10/25-26/01)      85           10            5        =100
     (10/11-12/01)      88            8            4        =100
     (9/20-21/01)       86           10            4        =100
     (9/13-14/01)       82           11            7        =100
     (8/25-9/5/01)      51           34           15        =100
     (5/10-11/01)       50           31           19        =100
     (2/15-16/01)       56           21           23        =100
 
      Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends
            selected. Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research
            Center.
 
      6.   In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to
           another term as president, or not?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                       Yes           No           DK
     Current Total      53           43            4        =100
 
     Republican         93            5            2        =100
     Democrat           14           82            4        =100
     Independent        48           46            6        =100
 
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)       43           53            4        =100
     (7/8-9/04)         43           52            5        =100
     (5/13-14/04)       41           51            8        =100
     (3/18-19/04)       46           50            4        =100
     (2/19-20/04)       43           52            5        =100
     (2/5-6/04)         45           50            5        =100
     (1/29-30/04)       45           49            6        =100
     (1/22-23/04)       44           52            4        =100
     (1/8-9/04)         48           46            6        =100
     (12/18-19/03)      46           46            8        =100
     (12/11-12/03)      45           50            5        =100
     (11/6-7/03)        44           50            6        =100
     (10/30-31/03)      45           46            9        =100
     (10/23-24/03)      46           47            7        =100
     (10/9-10/03)       44           50            6        =100
     (9/25-26/03)       46           47            7        =100
     (9/18-19/03)       44           50            6        =100
     (8/21-22/03)       44           49            7        =100
     (7/24-25/03)       49           43            8        =100
     (7/10-11/03)       47           46            7        =100
     (5/1-2/03)         51           38           11        =100
     (4/10-11/03)       52           38           10        =100
     (11/7-8/02)        49           42            9        =100
 
 
      7.   If you could vote separately for VICE PRESIDENT, would you be more
      likely to vote for ...  (ROTATE BY FORM) Dick Cheney, the Republican; or
      John Edwards, the Democrat?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                            Cheney   Edwards   Neither/Other   DK
     Current Total            44        45           3          8        =100
 
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)             36        55           3          6        =100
     (7/8-9/04)               41        52           2          5        =100
 
      Note: Neither/Other is a volunteered response category.
 
     Questions 8 and 9 were asked in random order; in each question series, the
 order in which the items were read was rotated with item h in question 8 and
 items h-i in question 9 always asked last.
 
      8.   Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
      phrases describes GEORGE W. BUSH.  (First,) what about... (Does this
      describe Bush or not?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                       Yes, describes  No, does not  DK
     a.Has strong leadership
       qualities
     Current Total                         65              33         2    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                          60              38         2    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            67              31         2    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                          65              33         2    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                       59              33         8    =100
 
     b.Is honest and ethical
     Current Total                         62              33         5    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                          54              40         6    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            54              40         6    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                          57              38         5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                       58              31        11    =100
 
     c.Cares about people like you
     Current Total                         53              43         4    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                          44              51         5    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            49              46         5    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                          48              48         4    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                       51              41         8    =100
 
     d.Is personally likeable
     Current Total                         67              29         4    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                          62              34         4    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            69              29         4    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                          67              28         5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                       70              23         7    =100
 
     e.Says what he believes, not
       just what people want to hear
     Current Total                         66              29         5    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                          58              35         7    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            62              32         6    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                          63              32         5    =100
     (10/31-11/2/00)                       52              37        11    =100
 
     f.Would trust him to make the
       right decisions during an
       international crisis
     Current Total                         57              40         3    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                          48              49         3    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            56              40         4    =100
     (1/22-23/04)                          56              41         3    =100
 
     g.Shares your values
     Current Total                         54              41         5    =100
     Trend
     (7/29-30/04)                          48              48         4    =100
 
     h.Is too conservative
     Current Total                         32              61         7    =100
     Trend
     (7/29-30/04)                          37              56         7    =100
     (7/8-9/04)                            34              60         6    =100
 
 
      9.   Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
      phrases describes JOHN KERRY.  (First,) what about ... (Does this
      describe Kerry, or not?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                       Yes, describes  No, does not  DK
     a.Has strong leadership qualities
     Current Total                           47           41         12   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            58           31         11   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              55           27         18   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            62           17         21   =100
 
     b.Is honest and ethical
     Current Total                           47           39         14   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            58           28         14   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              53           29         18   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            58           14         28   =100
 
     c.Cares about people like you
     Current Total                           49           38         13   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            57           33         10   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              52           32         16   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            52           26         22   =100
 
     d.Is personally likeable
     Current Total                           59           33          8   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            67           25          8   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              60           24         16   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            67           13         20   =100
 
     e.Says what he believes, not just
       what people want to hear
     Current Total                           42           47         11   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            49           39         12   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              45           38         17   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            48           27         25   =100
 
     f.Would trust him to make the right
       decisions during an international
       crisis
     Current Total                           44           48          8   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            53           37         10   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              46           36         18   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            52           24         24   =100
 
     g.Shares your values
     Current Total                           42           48         10   =100
     Trend
     (7/29-30/04)                            50           41          9   =100
 
     h. Is too liberal
     Current Total                           45           43         12   =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                            40           50         10   =100
     (7/8-9/04)                              38           46         16   =100
     (1/29-30/04)                            32           45         23   =100
 
     i.Is a war hero
     Current Total                           48           31         21   =100
     Trend
     (1/29-30/04)                            46           19         35   =100
 
 
      10.  Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
      determining your vote for president this year ...  (INSERT-READ AND
      ROTATE 1-7)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Total                                    Rep    Dem    Ind    7/29-30/04
       28  Terrorism and homeland security    50     10     23         21
       21  The economy                        14     29     19         19
       13  Health care, including Medicare     5     22     13         15
       11  The situation in Iraq               9     11     15         18
        9  American jobs and foreign
            competition                        5     12     10          9
        6  Education                           3      6      9          6
        3  Taxes                               4      1      4          4
        3  (VOL.-DO NOT READ) Other            3      3      4          4
        6  (DO NOT READ) Don't know            7      6      3          4
      100                                    100    100    100        100
 
       11. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell
       me if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
       better job handling each of the following issues.  (First,) what
       about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)?  (Which do you trust do to a
       better job handling this issue ...  Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                          Bush      Kerry    Equal   Neither    DK
                                             (VOL)    (VOL)
     a. The economy
     Current Total         49        43       1        2         5    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          42        49       1        2         6    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          43        47       2        2         6    =100
 
     b. The situation in
         Iraq
     Current Total         55        37       1        2         5    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          46        46       1        2         5    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          53        38       2        2         5    =100
 
     c. Terrorism and
         homeland security
     Current Total         60        32       2        2         4    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          48        43       2        2         5    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          56        35       2        1         6    =100
 
     d. Health care,
         including Medicare
     Current Total         43        45       2        2         8    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          32        55       2        3         8    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          37        53       1        2         7    =100
 
     e. Education
     Current Total         48        42       2        2         6    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          40        48       2        2         8    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          43        46       2        2         7    =100
 
     f. Taxes
     Current Total         52        38       1        2         7    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          42        48       1        3         6    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          45        44       1        3         7    =100
 
     g. American jobs and
         foreign
         competition
     Current Total         45        44       1        3         7    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          36        53       1        2         8    =100
     (3/18-19/04)          39        50       1        3         7    =100
 
     h. Foreign policy in
         general
     Current Total         54        38       2        1         5    =100
     Trend
     (7/29-30/04)          44        49       1        2         4    =100
 
     i. The environment
     Current Total         36        50       2        2        10    =100
     Trend
     (7/29-30/04)          29        59       2        2         8    =100
 
     j. Gay marriage
     Current Total         44        36       1        6        13    =100
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)          46        33       1        5        15    =100
     (2/5-6/04)            38        29       2        5        26    =100
 
      Note: Trend results for item j are based on slightly different question
      wording: "Which presidential candidate comes closer to reflecting your
      own views on the issue of gay marriage?"
 
      Questions 12 and 13 were asked in random order
 
      12.  Has what you've seen or heard about George W. Bush's military
      service record in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War made
      you more likely or less likely to vote for him in November, or has it not
      had much effect either way?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Current                      Military HH     Non-Military HH    7/29-30/04
        5     More likely              6                 5               5
       17     Less likely             16                18              22
       75     Not much effect         75                74              70
        1     Haven't heard about
              /Not aware of (VOL.)     1                 1               2
        2     Don't know               2                 2               1
      100                            100               100             100
 
 
      13.  Has what you've seen or heard about John Kerry's military service
      record in the Vietnam War made you more likely or less likely to vote for
      him in November, or has it not had much effect either way?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Current                      Military HH     Non-Military HH    7/29-30/04
       15     More likely             15               16                27
       19     Less likely             26               15                15
       62     Not much effect         55               66                55
        2     Haven't heard about
               /Not aware of (VOL.)    1                2                 1
        2     Don't know               3                1                 2
      100                            100              100               100
 
 
      14a. Have you seen or heard about the recent TV Ads sponsored by a
           veterans' group questioning John Kerry's military service record in
           Vietnam?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     75   Yes, seen or heard about the ads
     24   No
     1    Don't know
     100
 
 
     14b. From what you've seen or heard, do you think these ads are generally
           accurate in what they say about Kerry's military service in Vietnam,
           or are misleading or distorted?
 
     BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
 
     Current                            Military HH        Non-Military HH
       21     Generally accurate             26                  19
       39     Misleading or distorted        36                  40
       25     Not aware of ads               21                  27
       15     Don't know                     17                  14
      100                                   100                 100
 
 
      14c. Do you think the Bush-Cheney campaign is behind these anti-Kerry
           ads, or that the ads were produced independently, without the Bush-
           Cheney campaign's involvement?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
     Current                            Military HH        Non-Military HH
       27     Bush-Cheney campaign
               behind ads                    24                  30
       38     Produced independently         46                  34
       26     Not aware of ads               21                  27
        9     Don't know                      9                   9
      100                                   100                 100
 
 
      15.  On another subject ...  All in all, do you think George W. Bush's
           economic and tax policies have done more to help or hurt economic
           conditions in this country - or haven't had much effect either way?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
 
     Current                        7/29-30/04
       38       Help                    33
       38       Hurt                    43
       19       Not much effect         20
        5       Don't know               4
      100                              100
 
 
      16.  From what you know now, do you think the United States did the right
           thing in taking military action against Iraq last year, or not?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                         Yes         No         DK
     Current Total                        55         38          7      =100
     Republicans                          87         11          2      =100
     Democrats                            29         61         10      =100
     Independents                         46         48          6      =100
 
     Trends
     (5/13-14/04)                         51         43          6      =100
     (4/8-9/04)                           57         39          4      =100
     (3/25-26/04)                         55         41          4      =100
     (3/18-19/04)                         57         37          6      =100
     (1/29-30/04)                         55         39          6      =100
     (12/18-19/03)                        62         32          6      =100
     (11/6-7/03)                          55         38          7      =100
     (10/23-24/03)                        59         34          7      =100
     (10/9-10/03)                         56         37          7      =100
     (9/11-12/03)                         64         31          5      =100
     (8/21-22/03)                         61         33          6      =100
     (7/24-25/03)                         68         28          4      =100
 
      Note: Trend results are based on total sample.
 
 
      17.  In general, do you think going to war with Iraq has made Americans
           safer from terrorism, or not?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                Yes            No           DK
     Current Total               45            50            5        =100
     Republicans                 75            20            5        =100
     Democrats                   21            76            3        =100
     Independents                38            57            5        =100
 
     Trends
     (7/29-30/04)                38            57            5        =100
     (1/22-23/04)                44            53            3        =100
 
 
      18.  Do you think Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was DIRECTLY involved
           in planning, financing, or carrying out the terrorist attacks of
           September 11th, 2001, or not?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                Yes            No           DK
     Current Total               42            44           14        =100
     Republicans                 55            32           13        =100
     Democrats                   32            54           14        =100
     Independents                37            48           15        =100
 
     Trends
     (1/29-30/04)                49            39           12        =100
     (9/18-19/03)                47            37           16        =100
 
      Note: Trend results are based on total sample.
 
 
      19.  How much, if any, of the Republican Convention did you watch on TV
           this week ...  (READ)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                          None    Very little    Some    A great    DK
                          of it                  of it    deal
     Current Total          32          28         24       16       *   =100
 
     Trends
     2004 Democratic
      Convention            25          26         29       19       1   =100
     2000 Republican
      Convention            31          28         26       15       *   =100
     2000 Democratic
      Convention            25          27         28       18       2   =100
     1996 Republican
      Convention            27          29         26       17       1   =100
     1992 Republican
      Convention            16          29         33       22       0   =100
     1988 Republican
      Convention            17          26         27       30       *   =100
 
      Note: 1988 trend from Gallup.
 
 
      20.  From what you saw or heard about this week's Republican Convention,
           is your opinion of the Republican Party more favorable or less
           favorable?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                      More   Less   No change   Didn't follow conv.   DK
     Current Total     36     27       23              12              2   =100
 
     Republicans       66      3       23               7              1   =100
     Democrats         13     52       18              14              3   =100
     Independents      29     27       29              13              2   =100
 
     Trends
     2004 Democratic
      Convention       41     24       22               9              4   =100
     2000 Republican
      Convention       49     22       18               5              6   =100
     2000 Democratic
      Convention       43     20       21              10              6   =100
     1996 Republican
      Convention       40     27       22               8              3   =100
     1992 Republican
      Convention       35     41       18               4              2   =100
     1988 Republican
      Convention       43     26       20               3              8   =100
 
      Note: 1988 trend from Gallup
 
      21.  Did you happen to watch all or part of George W. Bush's acceptance
           speech last night on live television?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
 
                                          Yes      No      DK
     Current Total                         45      53       2   =100
 
     Trends
     2004 - Kerry speech                   51      49       *   =100
     2000 - Bush speech                    49      50       1   =100
     2000 - Gore speech                    53      45       2   =100
     1996 - Dole speech                    46      54       *   =100
 
 
      22.  From what you saw or heard about George W. Bush's acceptance speech,
           is your opinion of Bush more favorable or less favorable?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
 
 
                             More    Less  No change  Didn't follow   DK
     Current Total            37      18      22             22        1   =100
 
     Republicans              61       2      17             18        2   =100
     Democrats                10      37      23             28        2   =100
     Independents             35      17      26             20        2   =100
 
     Trends
     2004 - Kerry speech      43      17      22             15        3   =100
     2000 - Bush speech       47      11      18             18        6   =100
     2000 - Gore speech       45      20      20              9        6   =100
     1996 - Dole speech       35      21      22             17        5   =100
     1992 - GHW Bush speech   39      35      16              7        3   =100
 
 
      23a. Do you think the Republican Party is more conservative than the
           image it presented at this week's convention, OR that the party is
           NOT more conservative than the image it presented?
 
      23b. Would you say the party is A LOT more conservative or ONLY somewhat
           more conservative?
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
      GOP Ideology vs. Image Presented
      Current                                         2000       1996
        18 A lot more conservative                      20         16
        21 Somewhat more conservative                   27         26
        30 Not more conservative                        30         33
        31 Didn't follow/Don't know                     23         25
       100                                             100        100
 
 
      24.  Please tell me if each of the following things that happened at the
           convention this week makes you more likely or less likely to vote
           for Bush and Cheney in November, or if it doesn't make much
           difference either way.  (First,) what about...(INSERT-READ AND
           RANDOMIZE)  (Does this make you more likely or less likely to vote
           for Bush and Cheney, or does it not make much difference either
           way?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                More   Less   No diff.   Not aware    DK
     a. Arizona Senator John
         McCain's speech on
         Monday
     Current Total               20      6      37          34         3   =100
     Trend
     2000 - McCain speech
      and endorsement            32     13      36          14         5   =100
 
     b. Former New York City
         Mayor Rudy Giuliani's
         speech on Monday
     Current Total               24      8      33          32         3   =100
 
     c. Laura Bush's speech on
         Tuesday
     Current Total               25      7      36          30         2   =100
 
     Trends
     2004 - Teresa Heinz Kerry
             speech              21     15      33          29         2   =100
     2000 - Laura Bush speech    29     10      36          19         6   =100
 
     d. California Governor
         Arnold Schwarzenegger's
         speech on Tuesday
     Current Total               22     10      38          27         3   =100
 
     e. The keynote speech by
         U.S. Senator Zell
         Miller, Democrat from
         Georgia, on Wednesday
     Current Total               21     14      30          31         4   =100
 
     Republicans                 39      6      27          25         3   =100
     Democrats                    7     23      34          31         5   =100
     Independents                16     13      31          37         3   =100
 
     Trend
     2004 - Barack Obama DNC
      keynote speech             24      5      34          35         2   =100
 
     f. Vice president Dick
         Cheney's acceptance
         speech on Wednesday
     Current Total               19     15      34          29         3   =100
     Trends
     2004 - Edwards speech       31      7      33          27         2   =100
     2000 - Cheney speech        32     13      34          15         6   =100
 
     ITEM G ASKED OF THOSE
      INTERVIEWED ON FRIDAY
 
     g. George W. Bush's
         acceptance speech
         on Thursday
     Current Total               30     10     27           30         3   =100
 
     Republicans                 52      1     22           22         3   =100
     Democrats                    9     23     32           32         4   =100
     Independents                26      8     27           36         3   =100
 
     Trends
     2004 - Kerry speech         32      8     31           28         1   =100
     2000 - Bush speech          37      7     30           21         5   =100
     2000 - Gore speech          40     11     21           24         4   =100
 
 
      25.  Looking ahead to the next presidential campaign, please tell me
           which, if any, of the following Republicans you would like to see
           run for president in 2008.    (First,) what about...(INSERT-READ AND
           RANDOMIZE) (Would you like him to run in 2008, or not?)
 
      BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
 
                                          Yes      No      DK
      a. John McCain
     Current Total                         48      36      16        =100
 
     Republicans                           47      39      14        =100
 
     b. Rudy Giuliani
     Current Total                         50      37      13        =100
 
     Republicans                           65      24      11        =100
 
     c. Senate Majority leader Bill Frist
     Current Total                         11      55      34        =100
 
     Republicans                           19      47      34        =100
 
     d. Florida Governor Jeb Bush
     Current Total                         15      66      19        =100
 
     Republicans                           28      49      23        =100
 
     e. New York Governor George Pataki
     Current Total                         15      55      30        =100
 
     Republicans                           13      52      35        =100
 
     f. Arnold Schwarzenegger, if the
        Constitution were changed to
        allow foreign-born U.S. citizens
        to run
     Current Total                         22      66      12        =100
 
     Republicans                           30      57      13        =100
 
     END OF INTERVIEW.  THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank
 you very much for your cooperation.
 
 

SOURCE Newsweek

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