PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis

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PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis
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PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, "PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis". Hepatitis C is a liver infection caused by the hepatitis C virus (HCV) that results in acute or chronic presentation. The disease is often asymptomatic, but infected patients may experience fatigue, joint pain, itchy skin or jaundice. There is no effective vaccine against HCV, so the market is driven by therapeutics. Currently, drug combinations containing pegylated interferon (e.g., Roche's Pegasys and Merck's PegIntron) and ribavirin (e.g., Roche's Copegus and Merck's Rebetol) are used to treat HCV infection. Patients infected with HCV genotype 1 can also have a protease inhibitor added to their combination therapy, such as Merck's Victrelis (boceprevir) or Vertex's Incivek (telaprevir). The entrance of next-generation HCV therapies is expected to fundamentally change the HCV treatment algorithm. GlobalData expects a dramatic shift favoring the uptake of interferon-free regimens due to their more tolerable side-effect profiles and decreased duration of therapy compared with the current standard of care.

The anticipated main drivers of market growth during the forecast period include an increased awareness of the disease and the country's tendency to treat HCV once it is diagnosed.

Standard interferon drugs are the current market leader in China. GlobalData's primary research revealed that Merck's Intron A (interferon alfa-2b) is the most commonly prescribed standard interferon in China, but that Roferon-A (interferon alfa-2a) and Kadmon's Infergen (interferon alfacon-1) are also used frequently. Standard interferon requires more-frequent dosing than peginterferon alpha, but standard interferon has been able to retain its market share in China in the face of competition from peginterferon due to its lower cost.

Scope

- Overview of the HCV including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
- Detailed information on the key drugs in China including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
- Sales forecast for the top drugs in China from 2012-2022.
- Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting China HCV market.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for HCV
- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
- Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in China

1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 10
2 Introduction 11
2.1 Catalyst 11
2.2 Related Reports 11
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 13
3 Disease Overview 14
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 14
3.1.1 Etiology 14
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 18
3.1.3 Prognosis 19
3.2 Symptoms 19
4 Disease Management 20
4.1 Diagnosis and Referral Overview 20
4.2 Treatment Overview 21
4.3 China 24
4.3.1 Diagnosis 24
4.3.2 Clinical Practice 24
5 Competitive Assessment 25
5.1 Overview 25
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 25
5.3 Product Profiles – Major Brands 27
5.3.1 Incivek (telaprevir) 27
5.3.2 Pegasys (peginterferon alfa-2a) 32
5.3.3 PegIntron (peginterferon alfa-2b) 35
5.3.4 Copegus, Rebetol, and Generic Ribavirin 39
5.3.5 Therapeutic Class: Interferon 41
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 42
6.1 Overview 42
6.2 Unmet Needs 43
6.2.1 Unmet Need: Treatment Tolerability 43
6.2.2 Unmet Need: Efficacy 43
6.2.3 Unmet Need: Disease Awareness 44
6.2.4 Unmet Need: Treatment Cost 45
6.2.5 Unmet Need: Shorter Treatment Duration 45
6.2.6 Unmet Need: Simplified Treatment Regimens 46
6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 46
6.4 Opportunities 47
6.4.1 Opportunity: Pan-genotypic HCV Regimen 47
6.4.2 Opportunity: Treatment of Underrepresented Patient Populations 47
6.4.3 Opportunity: Involvement of Immune System 48
7 Pipeline Assessment 49
7.1 Overview 49
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 50
7.2.1 Simeprevir 51
7.2.2 Faldaprevir and Faldaprevir plus BI 207127 58
7.2.3 Daclatasvir and Daclatasvir plus Asunaprevir 65
7.2.4 Other Drug Classes 74
8 Market Outlook 77
8.1 China 77
8.1.1 Forecast 77
8.1.2 Key Events 81
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 81
9 Appendix 83
9.1 Bibliography 83
9.2 Abbreviations 91
9.3 Methodology 92
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 92
9.4.1 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 92
9.4.2 Patient Warehousing 93
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 93
9.4.4 General Pricing Assumptions 94
9.4.5 Individual Drug Assumptions 94
9.4.6 Generic Erosion 96
9.4.7 Selection of Pipeline Agents 96
9.4.8 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 96
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 98
9.6 Survey of Prescribing Physicians 100
9.7 About the Authors 101
9.7.1 Author 101
9.7.2 Global Head of Healthcare 101
9.8 About GlobalData 102
9.9 Contact Us 102
9.10 Disclaimer 102

List of Tables

Table 1: Modes of HCV Transmission 18
Table 2: Symptoms of Acute and Chronic HCV Infection 19
Table 3: HCV Genotypes Present in the 9MM 21
Table 4: General Standard of Care by HCV Genotype 21
Table 5: Treatment Guidelines for HCV by Country 22
Table 6: Most-Prescribed Drugs for HCV by Class in the Global Markets, 2013 23
Table 7: Leading Treatments for HCV, 2012 26
Table 8: Product Profile – Incivek 28
Table 9: Efficacy of Incivek in Treatment-Naïve Patients (ADVANCE Trial) 28
Table 10: Efficacy of Incivek in Treatment-Experienced Patients (REALIZE Trial) 29
Table 11: Common Incivek Adverse Drug Reactions 30
Table 12: Incivek SWOT Analysis, 2012 31
Table 13: Product Profile – Pegasys 32
Table 14: Antiviral Efficacy of Peginterferon alfa-2a Compared with Interferon alfa-2b 33
Table 15: Pegasys SWOT Analysis, 2012 35
Table 16: Product Profile – PegIntron 36
Table 17: Antiviral Efficacy of Peginterferon alfa-2b Compared with Interferon alfa-2b 37
Table 18: PegIntron SWOT Analysis, 2012 38
Table 19: Effect of Addition of Ribavirin to Peginterferon HCV Therapy 40
Table 20: Ribavirin SWOT Analysis, 2012 41
Table 21: Summary of Minor Therapeutic Classes, 2012 41
Table 22: Overall Unmet Needs – Current Level of Attainment 42
Table 23: Clinical Unmet Needs – Gap Analysis, 2012 46
Table 24: HCV – Pipeline, 2012 50
Table 25: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for HCV, 2012 51
Table 26: Janssen's Simeprevir Ongoing Clinical Trials of Interest 52
Table 27: Product Profile – Simeprevir 53
Table 28: PILLAR Clinical Trial Results 54
Table 29: Adverse Events Observed in PILLAR Clinical Trial 55
Table 30: Simeprevir SWOT Analysis, 2012 58
Table 31: Boehringer Ingelheim's Faldaprevir Ongoing Clinical Trials of Interest 59
Table 32: Product Profile – Faldaprevir 60
Table 33: Efficacy of Interferon-Free Faldaprevir Regimen (SOUND-C2 Trial) 61
Table 34: Faldaprevir SWOT Analysis, 2012 65
Table 35: Bristol-Myers Squibb's Daclatasvir Ongoing Clinical Trials of Interest 67
Table 36: Product Profile – Daclatasvir 68
Table 37: Efficacy of Daclatasvir in Treatment-Naïve Patients (COMMAND-1 Trial) 68
Table 38: Daclatasvir and Asunaprevir Quad Therapy Efficacy 69
Table 39: Daclatasvir Triple Therapy Adverse Events 70
Table 40: Daclatasvir SWOT Analysis, 2012 73
Table 41: Comparison of Peginterferon lambda with Peginterferon alfa (EMERGE Trial) 74
Table 42: Efficacy of Alisporivir in Treatment-Naïve HCV GT2/3 Patients (VITAL-1 Trial) 75
Table 43: Sales Forecasts ($m) for HCV in China, 2012–2022 79
Table 44: Key Events Impacting Sales for HCV in China, 2012 81
Table 45: Chinese HCV Market – Drivers and Barriers, 2012 81
Table 46: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 100

List of Figures

Figure 1: HCV Genome and Polyprotein Composition 15
Figure 2: HCV Lifecycle Overview 16
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in HCV, 2012–2022 50
Figure 4: Sales for HCV Therapeutics in China by Drug Class, 2012–2022 80

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Drug_and_Medication Industry: PharmaPoint: Hepatitis C Virus - China Drug Forecast and Market Analysis

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