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Hot Beverages- 2009 Edition

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The hot beverages market grew by 1.6% in value terms in the year to 1st November 2008 (compared with the year ending 3rd November 2007). The market encompasses retail sales of instant and ground coffees, black and green leaf teas, fruit and herb teas, and hot chocolate and malted drinks. It excludes sales of these products via foodservice outlets such as cafes, restaurants, hotels, canteens, and coffee and tea shops, etc.

Although the market is dominated in value by standard instant coffees and black teas in bags, it is the speciality and 'sophisticated' premium-priced segments within all sectors of the hot beverages market that have shown growth. These have managed to support the total market, with mainstream instant coffees and bagged leaf teas showing generally static or declining sales.

Within instant coffees, sales have benefited from the 'coffee experience' of drinking espresso coffee in coffee bars, boosting sales of sachets of espressos for home consumption. Ground coffee sales have been boosted by growth in premium brands, and by significant sales of Kraft, Nestle and Douwe Egberts coffee systems using 'pods'.

Within teas, sales of speciality and decaffeinated products continue to increase, although other segments -- including green teas, which had previously been experiencing strong growth -- are now static or in decline. This has resulted in the total black and green leaf teas sector continuing its long-term contraction. However, there continues to be growth in the fruit and herb teas sector, assisted by increasing sales of rooibos (redbush) teas.

The hot chocolate and malted drinks sector showed growth in value terms in 2007/2008, with one of the most significant increases being recorded in the largest segment, hot chocolate products (as well as in cocoa drinks). Here again, this has been due to the success of premium lines. Sales of malted drinks declined in 2007/2008, but those of chocolate malted drinks rose.

Nestle and Kraft dominate the instant coffee subsector with their Nescafe and Kenco brands, respectively, and a combined value share of more than four-fifths in 2007/2008. The ground coffee subsector is more fragmented, with the leading brand, Sara Lee's Douwe Egberts, holding only a relatively small value share. Retailers' own labels are very strong in ground coffee. The leading Fairtrade coffee producer is Cafedirect, with Fairtrade coffees holding a significant share of the ground coffee subsector (but only a small share of the instant subsector).

The bagged black tea subsector is dominated by Unilever and Tata Teas, with their PG Tips and Tetley brands, respectively, together accounting for almost two-thirds of the subsector's total value. Cafedirect (with its Teadirect brand) is the major branded Fairtrade tea producer, although retailers' own labels now hold the major share by value. The Associated British Foods subsidiaries Twinings and Jacksons of Piccadilly hold dominant positions within speciality and green teas, and within fruit and herb teas.

The hot chocolate and malted drinks sector is divided between: Cadbury Trebor Bassett, the brand leader in chocolate products with its Cadbury's range; GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which is dominant in malted drinks, with its Horlicks products; and AB Foods' Twinings, the major player in chocolate malted drinks, with its Ovaltine brand. However, GSK, Mars, Nestle and Twinings have gained shares within the hot chocolate subsector, and GSK has boosted its share of the chocolate malted drinks subsector. Overall, Cadbury's holds an estimated 35% value share of the hot chocolate and malted drinks sector; GSK has an estimated 27% share, and Twinings accounts for an estimated 20%.

Various conflicting factors will continue to affect future growth in the hot beverages market. These include: an ageing UK population; the greater consumption of premium and speciality products (particularly by younger consumers); the effect of increasing awareness of the need for healthier eating and drinking; and, most importantly in the short to medium term, the impact of the financial crisis and recession. This has already led to visibly falling grocery sales, brought about by consumers switching to cheaper own-label products and purchasing more from the discounters, as well as by price reductions and special offers from all grocery retailers.

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

THE HISTORY OF HOT BEVERAGES, AND HEALTH CLAIMS

Instant and Ground Coffee

Black and Green Leaf Teas

Fruit and Herb Teas

Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

DEFINITION

Instant and Ground Coffee

Black and Green Leaf Teas

Fruit and Herb Teas

Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

METHODS OF PRODUCTION

Instant and Ground Coffee

Black and Green Leaf Teas

Fruit and Herb Teas

Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

2. Strategic Overview

MARKET DYNAMICS AND SEGMENTATION

Factors Driving or Affecting the Market

Changing Demographics

Table 1: The Estimated and Forecast UK Population by Age (% and million), Mid-Years 1971-2006 and 2011-2031

Competition From Other Drinks

Table 2: Household Purchase of Hot Beverages and Soft Drinks (grams per person per week and millilitres per person per week), 1995, 2003/2004-2005/2006 and 2006

New Product Development

Ethical/Fairtrade Teas and Coffees

Coffee Bars and Tea Shops/Tea Rooms

Market Size

Table 3: The Total Market for Hot Beverages in Great Britain

by Sector by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2005-2007/2008

Figure 1: The Total Market For Hot Beverages in Great Britain

by Sector by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2005-2007/2008

DISTRIBUTION

COMPETITIVE STRUCTURE

Instant and Ground Coffee

Black and Green Leaf Teas

Fruit and Herb Teas

Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

ADVERTISING

THE CONSUMER

Instant and Ground Coffee

Table 4: All Instant Coffees -- Penetration Levels

by Frequency by Age, Sex and Social Grade (%), 2007/2008

Instant Coffee

Table 5: Instant Coffee -- Penetration Levels For Decaffeinated,

Cappuccino and Latte Variants by Age, Sex and Social Grade (%), 2007/2008

Ground Coffee

Table 6: All Ground Coffees -- Penetration Levels

by Frequency by Age, Sex and Social Grade (%), 2007/2008

Black and Green Leaf Teas

Standard Black Teas

Table 7: Standard Black Teas -- Penetration Levels

by Frequency by Age, Sex and Social Grade (%), 2007/2008

Green Teas

Table 8: Green Teas -- Penetration by Age, Sex and Social Grade (%), 2007/2008

Fruit and Herb Teas

Table 9: Fruit and Herb Teas -- Penetration by Frequency

by Age, Sex and Social Grade (%), 2007/2008

MARKET FORECASTS

Table 10: The Forecast Total Market For Hot Beverages in Great Britain

by Sector by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2008/2009-2012/2013

3. Instant and Ground Coffee

MARKET SIZE AND MARKET SHARES

Table 11: The Instant and Ground Coffee Sector in Great Britain

by Product Type by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2005-2007/2008

Instant Coffee

Table 12: Instant Coffee Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Ground Coffee

Table 13: Ground Coffee Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Fairtrade Ground Coffee

Table 14: Fairtrade Ground Coffee Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Ground Coffee 'Pods'

Table 15: Ground Coffee 'Pod' Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

4. Black and Green Leaf Teas

MARKET SIZE AND MARKET SHARES

Table 16: The Black and Green Leaf Teas Sector in Great Britain

by Product Type by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2005-2007/2008

Mainstream Tea Bags

Table 17: Mainstream Tea Bag Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Green, Speciality and Fairtrade Teas

Table 18: Green Teas Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Table 19: Speciality Tea Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Table 20: Fairtrade Tea Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

Decaffeinated Teas

Table 21: Decaffeinated Tea Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

5. Fruit and Herb Teas

MARKET SIZE AND MARKET SHARES

Table 22: The Fruit and Herb Teas Sector in Great Britain

by Product Type by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2005-2007/2008

Table 23: Fruit and Herb Tea Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

6. Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

MARKET SIZE AND MARKET SHARES

Table 24: The Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks Sector in Great Britain

by Product Type by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2005-2007/2008

Table 25: Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks Brands by Market Share

in Great Britain by Retail Sales Value (%), 2006/2007 and 2007/2008

7. Imports and Exports

COFFEE

Imports

Table 26: Imports of Coffee by Volume and Value

by Type and Source (000 tonnes and pounds Sterling m), 2007 and January-June 2008

Table 27: Non-EU Imports of Not Roasted/Not Decaffeinated Coffee by Value and Volume by Source (000 tonnes and pounds Sterling m), 2007 and January-June 2008 Exports

Table 28: Exports of Coffee by Destination by Volume and Value

(000 tonnes and pounds Sterling m), 2007 and January-June 2008

TEA

Imports

Table 29: Imports of Black and Green Teas by Volume and Value by Type by Source (000 tonnes and pounds Sterling m), 2007 and January-June 2008

Table 30: Non-EU Imports of Black Teas by Volume and Value by Source (000 tonnes and pounds Sterling m), 2007 and January-June 2008

Exports

Table 31: Exports of Black and Green Teas by Volume and Value

by Type by Destination (000 tonnes and pounds Sterling m), 2007 and January-June 2008

8. Advertising

MAIN MEDIA ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE

Total Expenditure

Table 32: Total Main Media Advertising Expenditure

on Hot Beverages by Sector (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending June 2006-2008

Instant and Ground Coffee

Table 33: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Instant

and Ground Coffee by Brand (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending June 2006-2008

Black and Green Leaf Teas, and Fruit and Herb Teas

Table 34: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Black and Green

Leaf Teas and Fruit and Herb Teas by Brand (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending June 2006-2008

Hot Chocolate and Malted Drinks

Table 35: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Hot Chocolate

and Malted Drinks by Brand (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending June 2006-2008

9. Distribution

RETAILERS' MARKET SHARES

10. An International Perspective

KEY TRENDS IN MAJOR EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Coffee

Table 36: Production of Coffees in Major European Countries

by Product Type by Volume (000 metric tons), 2007

Table 37: Comparisons of Coffee Drinking in Selected European Countries

by Volume Consumed (kilograms per person per year), 2005-2007

Tea

11. PEST Analysis

POLITICAL FACTORS

ECONOMIC FACTORS

SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS

12. Consumer Dynamics

OVERVIEW

Table 38: Summary of Survey Findings Regarding Consumers' Purchasing and Consumption of Hot Beverages (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE PURCHASING OR DRINKING A GREATER PROPORTION OF FAIRTRADE OR ORGANIC PRODUCTS DURING THE PAST YEAR

Fairtrade Products

Organic Products

Table 39: Those Purchasing or Drinking a Greater Proportion of Fairtrade or Organic Products in the Past 12 Months Than Previously (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE PURCHASING OR DRINKING A GREATER PROPORTION OF DECAFFEINATED OR LOW-CALORIE PRODUCTS DURING THE PAST YEAR

Decaffeinated Products

Low-Calorie Products

Table 40: Those Purchasing or Drinking a Greater Proportion of Decaffeinated or Low-Calorie Products in the Past 12 Months Than Previously (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE PURCHASING OR DRINKING MORE GROUND OR INSTANT ESPRESSO COFFEE DURING THE PAST YEAR

Ground Coffee

Instant Espresso Coffee

Table 41: Those Purchasing or Drinking More Ground or Instant Espresso Coffee in the Past 12 Months Than Previously (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE PURCHASING OR DRINKING MORE SPECIALITY COFFEES OR TEAS DURING THE PAST YEAR

Speciality Coffees

Speciality Teas

Table 42: Those Purchasing or Drinking More Speciality Coffees or Teas in the Past 12 Months Than Previously (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE PURCHASING OR DRINKING MORE FRUIT AND HERB TEA OR GREEN TEA DURING THE PAST YEAR

Fruit and Herb Tea

Green Tea

Table 43: Those Purchasing or Drinking More Fruit and Herb Tea

or Green Tea in the Past 12 Months Than Previously (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE PURCHASING OR DRINKING MORE PREMIUM HOT CHOCOLATE OR MALTED BEVERAGES DURING THE PAST YEAR

Table 44: Those Purchasing or Drinking More Premium Hot Chocolate

or Malted Beverages in the Past 12 Months Than Previously

(% of respondents), October 2008

OWNERSHIP OF A COFFEE-MAKING MACHINE THAT USES COFFEE 'PODS'

Table 45: Ownership of a Coffee-Making Machine That Uses Coffee 'Pods'

(% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE REDUCING THEIR CONSUMPTION OF TEA OR COFFEE DURING THE PAST YEAR DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT CAFFEINE INTAKE

Table 46: Those Reducing Their Consumption of Tea or Coffee

During the Past 12 Months Due to Concerns About Caffeine Intake

(% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE VISITING COFFEE SHOPS MORE OFTEN DURING THE PAST YEAR

Table 47: Those Visiting Coffee Shops More Often in the

Past 12 Months Than Previously (% of respondents), October 2008

THOSE VISITING DISCOUNTER GROCERY RETAILERS MORE OFTEN THAN THEY DID A YEAR AGO

Table 48: Those Visiting Discounter Grocery Retailers More Often Than They Did 12 Months Ago (% of respondents), October 2008

13. Company Profiles

INTRODUCTION

INSTANT AND GROUND COFFEE

Sara Lee Coffee & Tea UK Ltd (Douwe Egberts)

Profitability

Table 49: Financial Results For Sara Lee Coffee & Tea UK Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 30th June 2005-2007

Kraft Foods UK Ltd

Profitability

Table 50: Financial Results For Kraft Foods UK Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

53 Weeks Ending 17th December 2005 and Years Ending 16th December 2006 and 15th December 2007

Nestle UK Ltd

Profitability

Table 51: Financial Results For Nestle UK Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Other Producers and Suppliers

Bettys & Taylors Group Ltd

Profitability

Boaters Coffee Co Ltd

Profitability

Table 52: Financial Results For Boaters Coffee Co Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Year Ending 31st December 2004, 65 Weeks Ending 31st March 2006 and Year Ending 31st March 2007

Cafedirect PLC

Profitability

Table 53: Financial Results For Cafedirect PLC (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 30th September 2005-2007

Euro Food Brands Ltd

Profitability

Table 54: Financial Results For Euro Food Brands Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st March 2006-2008

Food Brands Group Ltd

Profitability

Table 55: Financial Results For Food Brands Group Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st March 2006-2008

Gala Coffee Ltd

Profitability

Table 56: Financial Results For Gala Coffee Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st December 2004-2006

Lavazza Coffee (UK) Ltd

Profitability

Table 57: Financial Results For Lavazza Coffee (UK) Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Rombouts Coffee (Premier Foods PLC)

Profitability

R Twining and Company Ltd

Profitability

Retailers' Own Labels

BLACK AND GREEN LEAF TEAS, AND FRUIT AND HERB TEAS

Apeejay Surrendra/Ty.phoo Tea Ltd

Profitability

Table 58: Financial Results For Ty.phoo Tea Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

22 Weeks Ending 31st March 2006 and Year Ending 31st March 2007

Bettys & Taylors Group Ltd

Profitability

Table 59: Financial Results For Bettys & Taylors Group Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st October 2005-2007

Tetley GB Ltd

Profitability

Table 60: Financial Results For Tetley GB Ltd (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending 16th April 2006 and 3rd March 2007, and 53 Weeks Ending 5th April 2008

R Twining and Company Ltd, and Jacksons of Piccadilly Ltd (Associated British Foods PLC)

Profitability

Table 61: Financial Results For R Twining and Company Ltd (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending 17th September 2005, 16th September 2006 and 15th September 2007

Unilever PLC

Profitability

Table 62: Financial Results For Unilever PLC (euro 000), Years Ending 31st December 2004-2006

Other Producers and Suppliers

Clipper Teas Ltd

Profitability

Table 63: Financial Results For Clipper Teas Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 30th June 2005-2007

Dragonfly Teas Ltd

Profitability

James Finlay Ltd (Finlays)

Profitability

Table 64: Financial Results For James Finlay Ltd (pounds Sterling 000),

Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Lancashire Tea Company Ltd

Profitability

Northern Tea Merchants Ltd

Profitability

Only Natural Products Ltd

Profitability

Redbush Tea Company Ltd

Profitability

Table 65: Financial Results For Redbush Tea Company Ltd (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Keith Spicer Ltd (Spicers)

Profitability

Teadirect

Profitability

Whittard of Chelsea Ltd

Profitability

Table 66: Financial Results For Whittard of Chelsea Ltd (pounds Sterling 000), Year Ending 31st March 2005, 43 Weeks Ending 31st March 2006

and Year Ending 31st March 2007

Retailers' Own Labels

HOT CHOCOLATE AND MALTED DRINKS

Associated British Foods PLC

Profitability

Table 67: Financial Results For Associated British Foods PLC (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending 16th September 2006, 15th September 2007 and 13th September 2008

Cadbury Trebor Bassett

Profitability

Table 68: Financial Results For Cadbury Holdings Ltd (pounds Sterling 000), Years Ending 1st January 2006 and 31st December 2006-2007

GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare

Profitability

Other Producers and Suppliers

Mars

Profitability

Nestle

Profitability

Cafedirect

Profitability

Retailers' Own Labels

14. The Future

FUTURE TRENDS

MARKET FORECASTS

Table 69: The Forecast Total Hot Beverages Market in Great Britain by Sector by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2008/2009-2012/2013

Figure 2: The Forecast Total Hot Beverages Market in Great Britain by Sector by Value at Current Prices (pounds Sterling m at rsp), 2008/2009-2012/2013

15. Further Sources

Associations

Major Producers

Publications

General Sources

Government Publications

Other Sources

Key Note Sources

Understanding TGI Data

Number, Profile, Penetration

Social Grade

Standard Region

Key Note Research

The Key Note Range of Reports

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