Revenue from Nanotechnology-Enabled Products to Equal IT and Telecom by 2014, Exceed Biotech by 10 Times

$2.6 trillion in products will incorporate emerging nanotechnology in 10 years

Oct 25, 2004, 01:00 ET from Lux Research

    NEW YORK, Oct. 25 /PRNewswire/ -- Sales of products incorporating emerging
 nanotechnology will rise from less than 0.1% of global manufacturing output
 today to 15% in 2014, totaling $2.6 trillion. This value will approach the
 size of the information technology and telecom industries combined and will be
 10 times larger than biotechnology revenues, according to a new report from
 Lux Research entitled "Sizing Nanotechnology's Value Chain."  However, sales
 of basic nanomaterials like carbon nanotubes and quantum dots will total only
 $13 billion in 2014: Nanotechnology's economic impact will arise from how
 these fundamental building blocks are used, not from sales of the materials
     The report refutes the popular misconception that nanotechnology is an
 industry or a sector -- it isn't. Instead, nanotechnology is a set of tools
 and processes for manipulating matter that can be applied to virtually any
 manufactured good. Rather than envisioning a mythical "nanotechnology market,"
 Lux Research recommends that executives focus on how nanotechnology is being
 exploited across industry value chains, from basic materials to intermediate
 products to final goods. The report presents separate forecasts by each value
 chain stage as well as by sector and region.
     "Over the past several years, companies have selectively applied nanoscale
 innovations to products ranging from the Chevrolet Impala to Merck's
 anti-emetic drug Emend," explained Matthew Nordan, Vice President of Research
 at Lux Research. "These initial deployments have proven the value of
 nanotechnology, setting the stage for an explosion of applications.  In 2014,
 we project that 4% of general manufactured goods, 50% of electronics and IT
 products, and 16% of goods in healthcare and life sciences by revenue will
 incorporate emerging nanotechnology."
     Lux Research predicts that nanotechnology's growth will occur in three
      * In the first phase, ending this year, nanotechnology is being
        incorporated selectively into high-end products. In 2004 revenues from
        products incorporating emerging nanotechnology will total $13 billion,
        $8.5 billion of which lies in automotive and aerospace applications.
      * Through 2009, commercial breakthroughs will unlock markets for
        nanotechnology innovations, with revenues rising to $292 billion.
        Electronics and IT applications will dominate as microprocessors and
        memory chips built using new nanoscale processes come to market.
      * From 2010 onwards, nanotechnology will become commonplace in
        manufactured goods, with revenues rising to $2.6 trillion in 2014.
        Healthcare and life sciences applications will finally become
        significant in this period as nano-enabled pharmaceuticals and medical
        devices emerge from lengthy human trials.
     The widespread use of nanotechnology in mainstream products will have
 profound ripple effects. Ten million manufacturing jobs worldwide in 2014 --
 11% of total manufacturing jobs -- will involve building products that
 incorporate emerging nanotechnology. Nanotechnology will shift market shares
 and introduce unconventional competitors: For example, silicon nanowire
 display printing technologies could cut capital requirements for flat-screen
 display plants by an order of magnitude, tempting fleet-footed manufacturers
 like Dell to enter the market. Supply chains will simplify as highly
 functional materials eliminate steps in manufacturing processes, negatively
 impacting sub-assembly manufacturers and transportation companies while making
 value-added taxes more productive for governments than sales taxes.
     "Nanotechnology's increasing relevance creates clear mandates for business
 and government leaders," said Nordan. "Corporations need to develop an
 explicit nanotechnology strategy -- apart from leaders such as DuPont and
 Praxair, few companies coordinate their nanotechnology activities at all
 today. Investors should focus on nanotechnology applications in the middle of
 industry supply chains where profit potential is highest, and consider laying
 nanotech as a long-term secular trend. Public sector leaders should focus on
 fostering nanotechnology demand, not just supply, and establish informed
 regulation to address health and safety issues."
     For "Sizing Nanotechnology's Value Chain," Lux Research built bottom-up,
 top-down, and evolutionary models of 42 product segments impacted by
 nanotechnology. The report team populated the models through exhaustive
 secondary research; interviews with more than 100 executives, researchers, and
 academics working to commercialize nanotechnology; and integration of
 macroeconomic data from organizations such as the U.S. Bureau of Economic
 Analysis and the World Bank. Additionally, Lux Research partnered with
 UK-based Volterra Consulting -- founded by Paul Ormerod, influential economist
 and author of "Butterfly Economics" -- to build advanced evolutionary models
 that measure how nano-enabled solutions compete for market share with
     The report is available immediately to clients of Lux Research's
 Nanotechnology Strategies advisory service. For information on how to become a
 client, contact Rob Burns, VP of Sales at (646) 723-0708.
     About Lux Research:
     Lux Research is the world's premier research and advisory firm focusing on
 the business and economic impact of nanotechnology and related emerging
 technologies. Lux Research provides continuous advisory services, customized
 consulting, and reference studies to corporations, start-ups, financial
 institutions, and public sector organizations. Our founders and our research
 staff are the most widely recognized nanotechnology visionaries throughout the
 world. Visit for more information.

SOURCE Lux Research