TORONTO, Nov. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - CIBC (CM: TSX; NYSE) - Rising
global energy and food prices are fuelling headline U.S. inflation that
could hit four per cent by next fall, according to a new report from CIBC
The report finds that the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, which focuses on
core CPI (excluding energy and food prices), will ignore these headline
inflationary concerns in the near-term while it focuses on stimulating the
economy and keeping it from falling into a recession.
"These secular inflation threats from food and energy will be set aside
by the Fed, which will be clearly focused on the cyclical threat to growth
from a collapsing housing sector," says Avery Shenfeld, Senior Economist
with CIBC World Markets and author of the report.
Mr. Shenfeld notes that the Fed's focus on core CPI made sense in a
world in which gasoline or food prices went up and then came back down but
that four key longer-term trends are now driving energy and food inflation
in the U.S.
First, rapid energy demand in developing nations has stretched supply
and pushed crude oil prices to record levels. Second, energy price hikes
combined with a weakening greenback are increasing America's current
account and trade imbalance. Third, higher energy costs are being passed on
to consumers and businesses through a wide range of core items from airline
tickets prices to trucking costs to petrochemical costs for products like
plastic. Finally, the policy response to subsidize ethanol production has
seen a rising share of U.S. agriculture devoted to growing corn for ethanol
production and this has pushed up feed grain prices and in turn meat, dairy
and egg prices.
Mr. Shenfeld expects the Fed will cut rates in the short-term to kick-
start the economy and that improvement will begin in the latter half of
next year. This combined with continued pressures on energy and food prices
will see headline inflation continue to increase. "If, as we expect, this
proves to be no worse that a mid-cycle slowdown, the economy won't open up
enough slack to materially change the trajectory for inflation when better
growth resumes in the second half of 2008.
"By fall of 2008, an economy that entered a slowdown with a headline
inflation rate above three per cent could be facing a headline rate taking
aim at four per cent. As a result, the Fed may be rushing to re-tighten
(rates) before year-end 2008."
The report notes that this approach will see U.S. Treasuries, and by
extension, Canadian bonds, feel the heat of rising short rates, and that
there will be doubts about the ability of the renewed tightening to quell
more ingrained inflation pressures. On a relative basis, this will make
inflation- linked bonds a better play.
"Unlike the Fed's focus on core CPI, the payoff on U.S. Treasury
Inflated Protected Securities (TIPS) is tied to headline CPI," adds Mr.
Shenfeld. "Right now, on a 10-year TIP, the implied inflation rate as
measured by the spread to nominal Treasuries, is roughly two and a half per
cent. TIPS will outperform Treasuries to the extent that inflation exceeds
that implicit projection over the life of the bond, or to the extent that
the spread widens as inflation expectations change."
He also believes Canadian Real Return Bonds (RRBs) may benefit by late
2008, although this will be muted by the lagging impact of a stronger
currency in quelling import inflation. "Add in a GST cut, and we can't see
Canadian CPI topping two and a half per cent at any time in 2008. As well,
even if it watches only core inflation, by the Canadian definition, the
Bank of Canada will be taking meat, packaged foods and other such products
"Finally, the implied inflation rate in RRBs has not been as well
correlated with on-the ground headline inflation. Still, with inflation
fears in Canada likely to escalate as the U.S. economy rebounds later in
2008, RRBs should still outperform a threatened nominal Government of
Canada bond market."
The complete CIBC World Markets report is available at:
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SOURCE CIBC World Markets