NEWARK, Calif., Aug. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Insured losses from Hurricane
Dean, which today made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, are
likely to range between just US$ 0.75 billion and $1.5 billion, according
to latest estimates by Risk Management Solutions, the world's leading
provider of products and services for catastrophe risk management. Of this,
only up to $300 million is expected to be from damage to the Mexican coast,
with most of the remainder resulting from the storm's destruction in
Hurricane Dean -- the first category 5 storm since 2005, with wind
speeds of around 160 miles per hour -- struck the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsular coast in a relatively sparsely populated area approximately 40
miles northeast of Chetumal. Had the storm tracked 150 miles north it would
have impacted the bustling tourist cities of Cancun and Cozumel, tripling
the insured loss in Mexico.
"Dean has taken an extraordinarily fortunate track, slipping between St
Lucia and Martinique and striking a scarcely populated area of the Mexican
coast. Given its intensity, the Caribbean and Winward Islands have faired
relatively well," commented Dr. Claire Souch, senior director of model
management at RMS. "Though Jamaica has taken a large hit, the track for a
category 5 storm could hardly have been better planned to minimize the
She added: "Dean's impact in Mexico will be similar to Hurricane
Emily's in 2005, which was a category 4 storm and caused around $250
million of insured loss. If Dean had made landfall in the north of the
Yucatan Peninsular coast, we could have been looking at a near repeat of
Hurricane Wilma, which devastated the area and resulted in insured losses
of some $1.8 billion."
Dean has remained a fairly small storm since it originated from a
vigorous tropical wave that moved off Africa's west coast on 11 August,
though it has intensified relatively quickly. As it travels across the
Yucatan Peninsula it will decrease in intensity, but will likely maintain a
category 1 to 2 hurricane status before emerging into the Bay of Campeche.
Here, it is not expected to cause much damage, despite being where the
majority of Mexico's oil is extracted.
Forecasts suggest that it will not make landfall in the United States
and will instead continue on a westward route and make a final landfall in
a lowly populated region of Mexico on Wednesday night. Interaction with
land should cause the storm to decay rapidly to a tropical storm.
RMS will continue to monitor the situation and will update its estimate
of insured losses as its analysis continues.
Risk Management Solutions is the world's leading provider of products
and services for catastrophe risk management. More than 400 leading
insurers, reinsurers, trading companies, and other financial institutions
rely on RMS models to quantify, manage, and transfer risk. Founded at
Stanford University in 1988, RMS serves clients today from offices in the
U.S., Bermuda, the U.K., Paris, Zurich, India, and Japan. For more
information, visit our web site at www.rms.com.
RMS and RiskLink are registered trademarks and the RMS logo is a
trademark of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All other trademarks are
property of their respective owners.
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SOURCE Risk Management Solutions