BUDAPEST, February 8, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --

Gabor Stier, political columnist of the Hungarian newspaper Magyar Nemzet, has said that despite protests in Moscow there is no doubt that Vladimir Putin will win the Russian Presidential election in the first round.

Stier said: "In a month all those who follow the ongoing events in Russia via international mass media may be very surprised. They won't understand why Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will win the Presidential election in the first round. They will believe a falsification to be the only credible explanation for that. But this is not quite true. Protesters on the Bolotnaya Square and on the Sakharov Avenue today are in the minority, while the silent majority doesn't attract the attention of mass media.

"The phrase "Moscow is not Russia" set our teeth on edge, but it is true. Moscow is a state within a state, which when it comes to economy, income, and the mentality of people is different from the rest of Russia. Today it is a fair statement in terms of political affiliations. At the same time if we consider the public mood in Russia, relying only on the opinion of old Western liberals we can be very much mistaken. Protests on the Bolotnaya Square, which certainly sounded louder than ever before, left the larger part of the 140 million population indifferent. Of course, all groups of the population are waiting for renewals, but the "backwoods" are not so politically active. Its residents spend most of their energy on overcoming problems to survive, so they value stability much more than the middle class living in large cities, and they certainly don't want a coup.

"From the social and political point of view Russia can be divided into three or even into four groups. The first is the capital and two dozen other cities with more than a million inhabitants. The attention of the world is focused on them. Post-industrial reforms proceed visibly here, the system of employment changed, a group of qualified "white collars" appeared. They are not only educated, but also mobile, and therefore much more resistant to the crisis. 35 million of Internet users live in these big cities, as well as the middle class that is dissatisfied not only with the financial situation.

"This class makes up 21% of the population. If we add here cities with a half-million population this figure will be only 36%. Approximately the same number (25%) lives in medium-sized cities with a population of 20 - 500 thousand. They constitute the second group. We are talking mainly about the industrial cities where less competitive people who are economically vulnerable. A new global crisis would have shocked him very much. The fate of this fourth part of Russian population is largely dependent on the state budget, so they do not want Vladimir Putin to leave and set on him their hopes of raising living standards. The third group consists of villages and small towns where 38% of the population lives. People here are politically passive, because agriculture makes their life and they already know that their fate is far more dependent on the weather than on the government. They want an order, predictability, and will protest only if they are deprived of wages and pensions. Ethnic minorities are a separate group (for more than ten years they account for more than 10% of the total population, whereas previously this number was 6%, all is due to their high birth rate). It is a backward group which is based primarily on budget funds, so it fully supports the current regime.

"If we take into account all the concerns, interests, mentality, political orientation and habits of these "four Russias", it becomes obvious that the results of the Duma elections in December 2011 reflected the balance of power. The possibility that Vladimir Putin, who has bigger popularity than the "United Russia", will win in the first round is high. Taking into account movements of the population and the birth rate, it is obvious that the government in addition to providing social security and preserving stability will be able to maintain the growth of standard of living, so liberal voters in large cities who demand radical changes by 2024 will be outvoted. Of course, this will work only if the system is capable of constantly getting renewed and reforming Russia." Gabor Stier - political columnist of the Hungarian newspaper Magyar Nemzet

SOURCE Russia Insights www.russia-insights.com

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