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S&P Equity Research Publishes Semi-Annual Industry Surveys

 

NEW YORK, Dec. 22 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's Equity Research has published semi-annual surveys for several industries, including Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco, Household Durables, Lodging & Gaming, General Retailing, Computers (Commercial Services and Consumer Services & the Internet), Investment Services, Pharmaceuticals, and Household Nondurables.

These industry surveys, which are about forty pages long and written by S&P equity analysts, include sections on each industry's current environment, an industry profile, industry trends, how the industry operates, key industry ratios and statistics, how to analyze a company in that industry, industry references, and comparative company analysis.

Following are short excerpts from each of the industry surveys listed above.

Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco: Our outlook for the tobacco industry is positive, as competitive pressures in the US cigarette market are contained and significant federal and state excise tax hikes appear to be well absorbed by consumers. Despite an anticipated volume decline of 7% to 9%, we believe that total industry operating profits for 2009 will rise in the high single digits, due to positive pricing, major cost restructuring, a reduction in marketing expenditures, and consolidation. Over the longer term, we expect domestic cigarette consumption to decline 4% to 5% a year, acceleration from recent declines of 3% to 4%.

Despite a weak housing market and high unemployment, and the likely near-term effect of these two factors on disposable income, we remain positive on the US alcoholic beverage industry, given attractive demographics, longer-term trading-up activity, and significant increases in brand investments by beverage companies.

Household Durables: We maintain a negative fundamental outlook on the home furnishings sub-industry since it continues to experience weak demand from lower customer spending, minimal pricing power, and low net margins. We think customers are fairly stretched due to higher energy and healthcare costs, and a slowdown in home equity cash-outs. We believe higher unemployment also contributes to a weaker spending outlook.

Lodging & Gaming: Our view for the hotel industry in 2010 is for a long period of continued tough operating conditions, with oversupply becoming more the story as demand somewhat recovers. We think this will likely lead to only a small uptick in industry occupancy rates from severely depressed levels. The continued growth in supply, coupled with a continuing shift in hotel guests' preference for cheaper rooms, will likely lead to hotel operators to lower rates, pressuring revenue per available room.

Gaming fundamentals continue to be poor. We expect the industry's performance in 2009 and 2010 to be notably worse than lodging's because gaming is more sensitive to consumer discretionary spending. Its largest markets, Las Vegas and Atlantic City, are more severely impacted by higher levels of supply in Las Vegas and increasing competition from gaming expansion in neighboring states.

General Retailers: Retailers are weathering the economic downturn by keeping a close watch on inventory and expenses. They are planning inventories cautiously to minimize the markdown risk, particularly on more discretionary-purchase items, and are rationalizing businesses to lower costs. They have closed underperforming stores, consolidated operating divisions, laid off employees, eliminated bonuses, and suspended matching contributions to employee 401 (k) plans. Retailers are also keeping a close watch on capital expenditures to maintain healthy cash flow despite lackluster sales.

Computers (Commercial Services): We believe that many of the key players in the IT services arena are relatively well-positioned to post revenue and earnings gains when the economy pulls out of the current recession. Due to a large number of layoffs, we believe many companies will be understaffed when the economy heats up again. We believe the outsourcers that have done the best job of controlling their own cost structures throughout the current recession will be in the best position to benefit.

Computers (Consumer Services): Consumers have found the Internet to be a useful tool for communicating, conducting research, and purchasing goods and services, and many other purposes. Corporations have found that, although the Internet is challenging traditional business models, it can offer significant advantages to those that fully embrace it. The Internet is still in a growth phase, fueled by increasing availability of PCs and Internet access, but the pace of expansion has moderated over the years.

Investment Services: Prominent trends affecting this industry include globalization, structural change, and increased regulation. Trends in investment banking include a decrease in leverage, the decline of the big buyout, and changes to the discount broker model. Major developments in asset management include the growing importance of exchange traded funds (ETFs), a decline in private equity and hedge fund activities, the flow of client assets towards large management companies, changes in distribution channels, and declines in funds' expense ratios.

Healthcare (Pharmaceuticals): We believe the proposed healthcare reform initiatives now being debated in Congress represent a mixed bag for the US pharmaceutical industry. The planned expansion of coverage for uninsured Americans would significantly broaden the overall market and increase the number of prescriptions written. However, this projected market expansion would come with new cost-containment measures that are expected to result in more restrictive drug formularies, constrained reimbursement, and widespread price discounting.

Household Nondurables: Given the low rates of population growth and household formations in the developed nations, it has become more difficult for consumer product manufacturers to achieve significant sales gains. In response, these companies are attempting to stimulate sales in varying ways, such as entering new markets, creating new product categories, adding new distribution channels, and acquiring (and divesting) businesses. Companies are also undergoing restructurings to cut costs and boost profit margins. Because of these efforts, the industry should continue to consolidate, and consumers will likely see more product choices at more points of purchase.

Individuals can purchase Standard & Poor's Industry Surveys online for immediate download at http://sandp.ecnext.com. Members of the media can request a copy from marc_eiger@standardandpoors.com.

About Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services

As the world's largest producer of independent equity research, Standard & Poor's licenses its research to global institutions for their investors and advisors. Standard & Poor's team of experienced U.S., European and Asian equity analysts use a fundamental, bottom-up approach to assess a global universe of multi-asset class securities across industries worldwide. Follow Standard & Poor's equity analysts' U.S. market commentary each day at http://www.equityresearch.standardandpoors.com/.

The equity research reports and recommendations provided by Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services are performed separately from any other analytic activity of Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's Equity Research Services has no access to non-public information received by other units of Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's does not trade for its own account. The analytical and ethical conduct of Standard & Poor's equity analysts is governed by the firm's Research Objectivity Policy, a copy of which may also be found at www.standardandpoors.com or by clicking here.

About Standard & Poor's

Standard & Poor's Financial Services, LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies (NYSE: MHP), is the world's foremost provider of independent credit ratings, indices, risk evaluation, investment research and data. With offices in 23 countries and markets, Standard & Poor's is an essential part of the world's financial infrastructure and has played a leading role for nearly 150 years in providing investors with the independent benchmarks they need to feel more confident about their investment and financial decisions. For more information, visit www.standardandpoors.com.

All information provided by Standard & Poor's is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any person, entity or group of persons. Past performance is no indication of future results. Standard & Poor's and its affiliates provide a wide range of services to, or relating to, many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker-dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries, and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue. Prices, values, or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate. Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor's currency of reference, changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you nor is it considered to be investment advice. Before acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but neither S&P nor its affiliates warrant its completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such. With respect to reports issued to clients in Japan and in the case of inconsistencies between the English and Japanese version of a report, the English version prevails. Neither S&P nor its affiliates guarantee the accuracy of the translation. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Neither S&P nor its affiliates are responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this information. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

SOURCE Standard & Poor's

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