The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Declines in October
NEW YORK, Nov. 12, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in October. The index now stands at 113.65, down from 114.68 (a downward revision) in September. The ETI figure for October is 4.9 percent higher than a year ago.
"Like many other economic indicators, the October decline of the Employment Trends Index was partially due to the government shutdown," said Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "The latest job numbers do in fact show some strengthening in the employment trend. But as domestic demand was weaker than expected in the third quarter, we might see some moderation in employment growth in the coming months."
October's decline in the ETI was driven by negative contributions from four of its eight components. The decreasing indicators — from the largest negative contributor to the smallest — were Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Consumer Confidence Survey® Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get," Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, and Job Openings.
The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)**
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
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*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months
The next release will be Monday, December 9 at 10 AM ET
SOURCE The Conference Board