The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increased in July

The Employment Trends Index has been slowing down in the past 3-6 months

Aug 10, 2015, 10:00 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Aug. 10, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July for a second consecutive month. The index now stands at 127.89, up from 127.57 in June. The change represents a 4.4 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

"The growth in the Employment Trends Index slowed down in the past 3-6 months, suggesting that we may see somewhat slower job growth in the months ahead," said Gad Levanon, Managing Director of Macroeconomic and Labor Market Research at The Conference Board. "Still, with almost no expansion of the labor force, a slowing of employment growth to 150,000-200,000 jobs a month would be enough to rapidly tighten the labor market."

July's increase in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from five of the eight components. In order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Industrial Production, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, and Job Openings.

The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.

The eight labor-market indicators aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:

  • Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®
  • Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
  • Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
  • Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
  • Job Openings (BLS)**
  • Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)*
  • Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)**

*Statistical imputation for the recent month
**Statistical imputation for two most recent months

NOTE: Revisions of the ETI components this month included a change in the base year of Industrial Production (from 2007 to 2012), and historical revisions to Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales.

The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.

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SOURCE The Conference Board



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