The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia Declines

NEW YORK, Oct. 22, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia declined 0.8 percent in August to 123.9 (2004 = 100), following no change in July and a 0.6 percent increase in June.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Australia, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in August, remaining at 120.4 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in July, and a 0.1 percent increase in June.

The LEI for Australia declined in August – the second decline in the last six months. As a result, the six-month change in the LEI remains negative, but the rate of decline has moderated compared to earlier this year. Meanwhile, the CEI for Australia was unchanged in August, but it has been on a slightly rising trend since mid-2011 and its six-month growth rate has been fairly steady. Despite the recent weakness in the LEI, the composite indexes suggest economic activity is likely to continue growing in the near term, but its pace is likely to be moderate.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Australia
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Australia include:

Yield Spread, 10 year minus Policy Rate
Share Prices, All Ordinaries
Money Supply, M3
Rural Goods Exports
Sales to Inventory Ratio
Gross Operating Surplus, Private Non-Financial Corporations
Building Approvals

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=7

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes







2012




 6-month


Jun


Jul


Aug


Feb to Aug

Leading Economic Index

124.9

p

124.9

p

123.9

p


 Percent Change

0.6

p

0.0

p

-0.8

p

-0.6

 Diffusion

85.7


64.3


78.6


71.4









Coincident Economic Index

120.3

p

120.4

p

120.4

p


 Percent Change

0.1

p

0.1

p

0.0

p

0.8

 Diffusion

50.0


75.0


37.5


75.0









n.a. Not available    p Preliminary   r Revised 








Indexes equal 100 in 2004








Source: The Conference Board

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