The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Declines

NEW YORK, Sept. 11, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan declined 0.8 percent in July to 94.5 (2004 = 100), following a 1.5 percent decline in June, and a 1.0 percent decline in May.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.3 percent in July to 96.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.5 percent decline in May.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has declined sharply in the last four months after increasing in the first quarter of the year. As a result, the six-month change in the index has turned negative for the first time since September 2011. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Japan also decreased in July, and has declined in four of the last six months. The six-month growth rate for the index also turned negative in July. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity is likely to expand more slowly, if at all, in the near term.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits

Dwelling Units Started

Business Failures

Index of Overtime Worked

Stock Prices (TOPIX)

Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity

Tankan Business Conditions Survey

Money Supply

Yield Spread

New Orders for Machinery and Construction

 

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

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