The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan Decreases

NEW YORK, Jan. 10, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan decreased 0.2 percent in November to 94.6 (2004 = 100), following a 1.2 percent increase in October, and a 0.5 percent decrease in September.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Japan, a measure of current economic activity decreased in November by 0.1 percent to 97.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in October, and a 2.5 percent increase in September.

The Conference Board LEI for Japan has been on a slightly upward trend in the last several months, despite month-to-month volatility. The six-month growth rate in the index has returned to positive territory, and even picked up further in November according to latest available data. Meanwhile, the rate of growth in The Conference Board CEI for Japan has also picked up in the last six months as the impact of the natural disasters wanes, but the index is still well below its most recent peak reached in the beginning of 2011. Taken together, the composite indexes and their components suggest that although near term risks to economic growth remain, economic activity should continue increasing in the coming months. 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include:

Operating Profits
Dwelling Units Started
Business Failures
Index of Overtime Worked
Stock Prices (TOPIX)
Six-Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity
Tankan Business Conditions Survey
Money Supply
Yield Spread
New Orders for Machinery and Construction

For more information including full press release and technical notes: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=5

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

This month's release incorporates annual benchmark revisions to the composite economic indexes, These regular benchmark revisions bring the indexes up-to-date with revisions in the source data. The revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are incorporated when the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes and their month-over-month changes will no longer be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit our website at http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm or contact indicators@conference-board.org.

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

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