2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Increases

NEW YORK, March 25, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico increased 1.9 percent in January to 126.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.2 percent decline in November.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in January at 122.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.3 percent decline in December, and a 0.3 percent increase in November.

The LEI for Mexico increased in January — the second consecutive gain — after declining in October and November of last year. The LEI's six-month growth rate also picked up compared to the first half of 2012. In the meantime, the CEI for Mexico has been flat since last October, and as a result its six-month growth has slowed. Despite the gains in the LEI, the recent behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the economy will continue to expand in the near term, but that the rate of expansion is unlikely to pick up.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include:

Industrial Production, Construction Component
Stock Prices
U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
Net Insufficient Inventories
Federal Funds Rate
Real Exchange Rate

For more information including full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=8

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

Summary Table of Composite Indexes


2012

2013

6-month


Nov

Dec

Jan

Jul to Jan






Leading index

123.2 r

123.7 r

126.1


Percent Change

-0.2

0.4 r

1.9

1.9

Diffusion

41.7

75.0

91.7

66.7






Coincident Index

123.1 r

122.7 r

122.7 p


Percent Change

0.3 r

-0.3 r

0.0 p

0.7 p

Diffusion

100.0

33.3

50.0

33.3


n.a. Not available   p Preliminary   r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2004

Source: The Conference Board

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