The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area Increased Again in November

BRUSSELS, Dec. 24, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.5 percent in November and now stands at 110.4 (2004=100), after increasing 0.4 percent in October and 0.5 percent in September.

"The LEI increased for the sixth month in a row, indicating that the outlook for the Euro Area economy continues to improve," said Bert Colijn, economist for The Conference Board. "The gains in the LEI were widespread with only business expectations in the service sector holding the index back. The banking union agreement which is intended to contribute to the stability of Europe's financial system should also have a positive effect on the short-term outlook. However, high unemployment, declining real wages, and slow growth in global trade are keeping the Euro Area outlook for next year subdued."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area, which measures current economic activity, was unchanged in November, according to preliminary estimates. The index now stands at 101.0 (2004 = 100)*. The CEI decreased 0.1 percent in October and decreased 0.2 percent in September.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the Euro Area 
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area was launched in January 2009. Plotted back to 1987, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the business cycle of the bloc of countries that now constitute the Euro Area, defined by the common currency zone.

The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for twelve other individual countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, the U.K., India, Brazil and the U.S.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area include:

Economic Sentiment Index (source: European Commission DG-ECFIN)
Index of Residential Building Permits Granted (source: Eurostat)
EURO STOXX® Index (source: STOXX Limited)
Money Supply (M2) (source: European Central Bank)
Interest Rate Spread (source: European Central Bank)
Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (source: Markit Economics)
Eurozone Service Sector Future Business Activity Expectations Index (source: Markit Economics) 

To view The Conference Board calendar for 2013 indicator releases: http://www.conference-board.org/data/

* Series in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area that are based on The Conference Board estimates are real money supply and residential building permits. All series in The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area are based on The Conference Board estimates (employment, industrial production, retail trade, and manufacturing turnover).

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

 

 Summary Table of Composite Indexes




2013


6-month



 Sep

 Oct

 Nov


Apr to Nov








Leading Economic Index (LEI)


109.5 p 

109.9 p 

 110.4 p



     Percent Change


0.5 p 

 0.4 p

 0.5 p


3.9 p

     Diffusion


71.4

57.1

85.7


100.0








Coincident Economic Index (CEI)


 101.1 p

 101.0 p

 101.0 p



     Percent Change


 -0.2 p

 -0.1 p

 0.0 p


-0.1 p

     Diffusion


12.5

37.5

75.0


37.5








 n.a. Not available     p Preliminary      r Revised





 Indexes equal 100 in 2004







 Source: The Conference Board      All Rights Reserved




 

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