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2014

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in January

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NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in January to 99.5 (2004 = 100), following no change in December, and a 0.9 percent increase in November.

"The U.S. Leading Economic Index continues to fluctuate on a monthly basis, but the six-month average growth rate has been relatively stable in recent months,  which suggests that the economy will remain resilient in the first half of 2014 and underlying economic conditions should continue to improve," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. "Correspondingly, the U.S. Coincident Economic Index, which measures current conditions, has continued rising steadily."

"The increase in the Leading Economic Index reflects an economy that is expanding moderately, although the pace is somewhat held back by persistent and severe inclement weather in most parts of the country," said Economist Ken Goldstein. "If the economy is going to move on to a faster track in 2014 compared to last year, consumer demand and especially investment will need to pick up significantly from their current trends.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in January to 108.1 (2004 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in December, and a 0.4 percent increase in November.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.3 in January to 121.6 (2004 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and no change in November.

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2013

2014

 6-month


Nov 

Dec 

Jan  

Jul to Jan






Leading Index 

99.2

r

99.2

r

99.5

p


  Percent Change 

0.9

r

0.0

r

0.3

p

3.1

  Diffusion   

70.0


40.0


60.0


75.0









Coincident Index  

107.9

r

108.0

r

108.1

p


  Percent Change  

0.4


0.1

r

0.1

p

1.3

  Diffusion  

100.0


75.0


75.0


100.0









Lagging Index  

120.7

r

121.2


121.6

p


  Percent Change  

0.0


0.4

r

0.3

p

1.8

  Diffusion  

35.7


71.4


78.6


50.0









n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised




Indexes equal 100 in 2004








Source: The Conference Board








About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

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