BURLINGTON, Mass., Dec. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that the prostate cancer drug market will experience robust 10 percent annual growth from 2012 to 2022 in the world's major pharmaceutical markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan), and will total $8.6 billion in 2022. Hormonal therapies—including Johnson & Johnson/Janssen Biotech/Janssen Cilag's Zytiga and Medivation/Astellas Pharma's Xtandi—will continue to dominate the prostate cancer market in patient shares and sales, and will claim more than 80 percent of the market in 2022.
The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Prostate Cancer finds that growth will be fueled by continuing market penetration of Zytiga and Xtandi and the launch of four additional high-priced therapies (including the 2013 launch of Algeta/Bayer HealthCare's Xofigo). Notably, the uptake of Xtandi and its expected label extensions for first-line, chemotherapy-naive metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) and nonmetastatic CRPC (nmCRPC) will drive its overall sales over the second half of the forecast. Xtandi will emerge as the top-selling agent in the prostate cancer market, garnering more than $3 billion in 2022.
"Xtandi will benefit greatly from its expected entry into the underserved and untapped nmCRPC setting," said Decision Resources Senior Business Insights Analyst Khurram Nawaz, M.Sc. "Although Xtandi will realize more than half of its sales in the commercially lucrative first-line mCRPC setting, we anticipate that sales in nmCRPC will represent nearly 30 percent of its overall sales in prostate cancer in 2022."
The findings also reveal that emerging therapies forecast to launch through 2022 (including Xofigo) will capture nearly $2 billion across the seven major markets under study. Three of these therapies will be positioned for the mCRPC population, making this setting an increasingly crowded and competitive space.
Decision Resources also forecasts a 12 percent annual growth in sales for prostate cancer therapies in urban China over the next five years, driven mainly by a 50 percent increase in drug-treated cases. According to the Emerging Markets report entitled Prostate Cancer in China, growth will also be attributed to the launch of four novel therapies in China, including Zytiga, Xofigo, Ferring Pharmaceutical's Firmagon, and Sanofi's Jevtana. While the drug-treated patient population will be small compared to that in the major markets, the combined sales will contribute 15 percent to the total urban market in 2017.
The new Emerging Markets report features extensive primary research from Chinese urologists and oncologists, and a market outlook by drug and drug class from 2012 to 2017 for urban China.
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