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United States Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
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BMI View: The vital US grains sector is expected to rebound in the 2012/13 season as soil conditions improve and high prices result in record plantings. The country's livestock sector (particularly beef) is likely to see more subdued growth, largely because inventory levels are lower. Given that cattle and lean hog prices remain high, we expect production to increase over our forecast period. As always, production growth will be dictated to a large extent by export demand, as aside from poultry, demand from the domestic market is generally stable. With Asia, the Middle East and Africa growing, the US will very likely find plenty of markets to transport their excess supply in coming seasons.
Key Trends
.. Cotton production growth to 2015/16: 8.4% annual average to 18.2mn bales. Our forecast for growth is premised on growing international import demand, particularly from China, which is the world's largest producer of cotton but also the largest importer. Much of this growth will be due to base effects.
.. Corn consumption growth to 2015/16: 2.9% annual average to 333.6mn tonnes. Demand growth will be driven by increases in ethanol production - though this will be less significant than in the past few years - and increasing feed use in the later years of our forecast period as the livestock sector picks up.
.. Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 3.0% annual average to 22.4mn tonnes. The increase in production will come from rising domestic consumption, which we forecast to rise by nearly 16% over 2011-2016. Increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, also is expected to serve as a powerful production incentive.
.. 2012 real GDP growth: 2.0% (up from 1.7% in 2011; predicted to average 2.2% over 2011- 2016).
.. Consumer price inflation: 2.9% year-on-year (March 2012), up from 2.1% in March 2011.
Industry Developments
Following two largely disappointing US corn crops in 2010/11 and 2011/12, there are high hopes for the 2012/13 crop. Weather has improved significantly in recent weeks, which has allowed many farmers in key growing regions to begin applying fertiliser to fields. However, we do not believe that plantings will progress significantly faster than normal, as there is still potential for frost in the early weeks of April, and US crop insurance may not cover all of the possible damage, according to local sources.
Soil conditions in key growing states such as Iowa, Nebraska and Illinois are largely either favourable or very good, meaning that once plantings begin, the yield levels will most likely remain high. In particular, soil conditions in Iowa to this point in the season are relatively strong by the decade's standards. In Illinois, the country's second largest corn producer, the proportion of soil in either very good or excellent condition is near a decade high.
We maintain our view for subdued cattle herd growth in coming years, with production growth to be helped by steady imports. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts beef cattle beginning stocks in 2012 to be at 30.4mn head, a 9.0% decrease compared with the 2000 level and a 33.5% reduction compared with the 1975 level. The fall in the cattle herd is illustrated by record high cattle prices. With this in mind, we believe strong production will come partially from the country's steady live cattle imports. Indeed, live cattle imports in 2012 are expected to be at 2.0mn head, in line with the 10- year average of 2.1mn head. While the 2012 imports are likely to be boosted by droughts in Mexico pushing local farmers to sell their cattle in the US, we still expect live cattle imports to remain steady over the coming years, compensating partially for slow growth in the US cattle herd.
We are forecasting a fall in US cotton production in 2011/12 and believe further downgrades may be possible as yields appear to be overestimated. We highlight that severe droughts significantly affected cotton-growing regions in the country during the season, resulting in major crop failures. The USDA estimates that only 29% of the season's cotton crop was in 'good' or 'excellent' condition, compared with 56% in 2010/11. As a result, the USDA has revised down its forecast for 2011/12, projecting an 8.5% year-on-year decrease to 16.6mn 480lb bales in 2011/12. However, we believe this downgrade has taken into consideration a 7.9% decrease in area harvested (linked to crop failure), while the 0.6% decrease in yields might be underestimated. Therefore, we believe it is very likely that further downgrades, even small, to the country's cotton crop will be made in coming months.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
United States Agriculture SWOT . 7
United States Business Environment SWOT 7
Supply Demand Analysis ... 8
United States Grains Outlook . 8
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 9
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 9
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 9
Table: United States Wheat Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .... 16
Table: United States Corn Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 17
Table: United States Barley Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .... 17
United States Dairy Outlook . 18
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 19
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .... 19
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 19
Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 23
Table: United States Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .... 23
Table: United States Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 ... 23
United States Soybean Outlook .. 25
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 25
Table: United States Soybean Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 29
United States Sugar Outlook . 30
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 30
Table: United States Sugar Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 34
United States Livestock Outlook 35
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 .. 36
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 36
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 36
Table: United States Poultry Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 .. 41
Table: United States Pork Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 . 42
Table: United States Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2007-2012 42
Company Profiles .... 43
Tyson Foods . 43
Smithfield Foods .... 46
Commodity Price Analysis .... 50
Corn ... 50
Rice .... 50
Soybean .. 51
Wheat . 52
Monthly Softs Update .. 53
Cocoa. 53
Coffee. 53
Palm Oil . 54
Sugar . 55
Upstream Analysis .. 56
Tractor Growth In The Americas Driven By Brazil And Argentina .. 56
Americas Fertiliser Quarterly .... 59
GM Plantings Growth To Slow, Americas To Remain The Largest Exporter .. 61
Downstream Analysis .. 65
Food... 65
Food... 66
Food Consumption . 66
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 67
Confectionery.... 67
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 ... 68
Table: Confectionery, 2009-2016 ... 69
Canned Food .... 70
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .... 71
Dairy .. 71
Table: Dairy, 2009-2016 . 71
Mass Grocery Retail ... 75
Table: Mass Grocery RetailSales Value by Format -Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 76
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type (%) .... 76
Country Snapshot: US Demographic Data ... 77
Section 1: Population .. 77
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 .. 77
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 78
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 78
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .... 78
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ... 78
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 79
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .... 79
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) .... 79
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 (US$) ... 80
Global Food & Drink View 81
Food & Drink Roundup Q112: Core Views ... 81
Table: Core Views . 91
BMI Forecast Modelling .... 92
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 92
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Livestock Industry: United States Agribusiness Report Q2 2012
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Nicolas Bombourg
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