Villaraigosa, Hahn Heading Toward Runoff, Hertzberg Gaining, According to Probolsky Poll

Feb 23, 2005, 00:00 ET from The Probolsky Poll

    LAGUNA HILLS, Calif., Feb. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- LA City Councilman Antonio
 Villaraigosa is leading in the race for mayor with nearly 23% of voters saying
 they will vote for him.  Mayor James Hahn is running second with 21%.  Numbers
 are fluctuating in the final weeks of the campaign; Hertzberg at 16% is
 gaining while Hahn is losing ground.  Second- and third-tier candidates are
 falling farther behind.
     "If there were another month to this campaign, it would be a different
 race," explained Adam D. Probolsky, pollster.  "The interesting story is
 Hertzberg, who is gaining among Republicans and the 55+ crowd.  Hahn is not
 sustaining support -- in fact he is the second choice of voters in each of
 four geographic areas within the city (Valley, West, Central and South).  It
 is also clear that Parks and Alarcon are out of the game."
     Hertzberg's strength is coming from the Valley as expected, but also from
 Republicans where he and Hahn draw about 27% each.  "Villaraigosa is polling
 best among Democrats and has a sizable leg-up among families with school aged
 children at home," explained Probolsky.
     It is important to note that 25% of voters are still unsure about their
 pick for mayor.
     Forty six percent of voters (a plurality) say they are more likely to vote
 for Hertzberg knowing he has plans to "break up the school district."  Senator
 Feinstein's endorsement of Mayor Hahn is a mixed bag.  About a third of voters
 say it makes them more likely to vote for the Mayor, about a third say it
 makes them less likely to vote for him and about a third say the Senator's
 endorsement makes no difference to them in their decision making process.
     Villaraigosa and Hertzberg are strongest among absentee voters, while
 Councilman Villaraigosa is in the lead among Election Day voters.
     The telephone survey of Los Angeles voters who are likely to vote in the
 March 8, 2005 Primary Election was conducted Monday February 21 through
 Tuesday February 22, 2005.  A total of 305 voters were surveyed, yielding a
 margin of error of +/-5.7%.  Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
     Following is the survey question presented to Los Angeles voters:
      Question: If the primary election for mayor of Los Angeles were held
 today, for whom would you vote?  Please listen to the entire list of
 candidates before making your decision.
       1. Wendy Lyons, Meatpacker
       2. Antonio Villaraigosa, Los Angeles City Council Member
       3. Walter Moore, Business Trial Lawyer
       4. Addie Miller, Senior Citizen Advocate
       5. Richard Alarcon, State Senator
       6. Martin Luther King Aubrey Sr., State Worker
       7. Bruce Harry Darian, Businessperson
       8. Ted Crisell, Publisher, News Paper
       9. Bill Wyatt, Businessman
      10. Bob Hertzberg, Attorney/Businessman
      11. James Kenneth Hahn, Mayor
      12. Bernard Parks, Councilmember, Retired Chief
      13. Unsure [NOT READ]
      14. Refused [NOT READ]
                         Candidates for Mayor
                                 Lyons           *
                             Villaraigosa      22.6
                                 Moore           *
                                Miller          *
                                Alarcon        1.6%
                                Aubrey          *
                                Darian           *
                                Crisell          *
                                 Wyatt           *
                               Hertzberg       16.4%
                                 Hahn          21%
                                 Parks          9.5%
                                Unsure        24.9%
                                Refused        2.3%
      (*) Indicates less than one percent.
     The Probolsky Poll is a digest of opinion research studies conducted by
 Probolsky Research.

SOURCE The Probolsky Poll