LAGUNA HILLS, Calif., Feb. 23 /PRNewswire/ -- LA City Councilman Antonio Villaraigosa is leading in the race for mayor with nearly 23% of voters saying they will vote for him. Mayor James Hahn is running second with 21%. Numbers are fluctuating in the final weeks of the campaign; Hertzberg at 16% is gaining while Hahn is losing ground. Second- and third-tier candidates are falling farther behind. "If there were another month to this campaign, it would be a different race," explained Adam D. Probolsky, pollster. "The interesting story is Hertzberg, who is gaining among Republicans and the 55+ crowd. Hahn is not sustaining support -- in fact he is the second choice of voters in each of four geographic areas within the city (Valley, West, Central and South). It is also clear that Parks and Alarcon are out of the game." Hertzberg's strength is coming from the Valley as expected, but also from Republicans where he and Hahn draw about 27% each. "Villaraigosa is polling best among Democrats and has a sizable leg-up among families with school aged children at home," explained Probolsky. It is important to note that 25% of voters are still unsure about their pick for mayor. Forty six percent of voters (a plurality) say they are more likely to vote for Hertzberg knowing he has plans to "break up the school district." Senator Feinstein's endorsement of Mayor Hahn is a mixed bag. About a third of voters say it makes them more likely to vote for the Mayor, about a third say it makes them less likely to vote for him and about a third say the Senator's endorsement makes no difference to them in their decision making process. Villaraigosa and Hertzberg are strongest among absentee voters, while Councilman Villaraigosa is in the lead among Election Day voters. The telephone survey of Los Angeles voters who are likely to vote in the March 8, 2005 Primary Election was conducted Monday February 21 through Tuesday February 22, 2005. A total of 305 voters were surveyed, yielding a margin of error of +/-5.7%. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Following is the survey question presented to Los Angeles voters: Question: If the primary election for mayor of Los Angeles were held today, for whom would you vote? Please listen to the entire list of candidates before making your decision. 1. Wendy Lyons, Meatpacker 2. Antonio Villaraigosa, Los Angeles City Council Member 3. Walter Moore, Business Trial Lawyer 4. Addie Miller, Senior Citizen Advocate 5. Richard Alarcon, State Senator 6. Martin Luther King Aubrey Sr., State Worker 7. Bruce Harry Darian, Businessperson 8. Ted Crisell, Publisher, News Paper 9. Bill Wyatt, Businessman 10. Bob Hertzberg, Attorney/Businessman 11. James Kenneth Hahn, Mayor 12. Bernard Parks, Councilmember, Retired Chief 13. Unsure [NOT READ] 14. Refused [NOT READ] Candidates for Mayor Lyons * Villaraigosa 22.6 Moore * Miller * Alarcon 1.6% Aubrey * Darian * Crisell * Wyatt * Hertzberg 16.4% Hahn 21% Parks 9.5% Unsure 24.9% Refused 2.3% (*) Indicates less than one percent. The Probolsky Poll is a digest of opinion research studies conducted by Probolsky Research.
SOURCE The Probolsky Poll