Global Energy Markets and Technologies: Focus On North America

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Global Energy Markets and Technologies: Focus On North America

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REPORT SCOPE

INTRODUCTION

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the market for electricity generation on a global basis. Its aim is to provide a range of information, from detailed national analyses to overall industry trends, in order to quantify and forecast markets for electricity generation. Various types of generation are forecast on a global basis. Forecasts and trends are developed from a cross-reference of data points, gleaned from government and industry sources and other divergent data sources to arrive at a cogent and coordinated forecast.

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY

The global market for electricity generation is enormous and growing at a high rate. It is also extremely complicated from a technical, policy/regulatory, and economic/financial perspective. This report analyzes different geographic and technology markets in order to help readers identify the regions and technologies where they can find the most promising opportunities.

This report also seeks to address changing market dynamics in the industry, emerging geographies, and types of technologies that are forecast to grow in each region. This study also provides insight into the market structure in each region. This provides support to companies that are identifying global markets ripe for opportunity, and markets where entry or competition will be particularly difficult.

SCOPE OF REPORT

This report presents an analysis of current and historical installed capacity of electricity generation in each country and region in the world. This analysis is organized by technology type, and data are presented for 2010 and 2011, with forecasts to 2016. These data are also presented organized by technology type.

This report also presents forecasts as to the size and growth of the electricity generation market in each country and region in the world. This report includes an analysis of the major industry structure in each market by geography. This includes the levels of privatization versus public ownership of the electricity generation industry in a given market. It also covers the ways in which the markets function and the level of competition that is present. Relevant regulatory organizations, controls, and issues are also presented.

Important government policies are presented as they relate to electricity generation and the industry in each country and region. The projected effects of these policies on the forecast for electricity generation in each country and region are discussed. International agreements and the effect of regional cooperation is important in the electricity generating industries of many countries in the world, and these are also discussed where they are relevant.

Industry trends in each technology market are discussed. The direction of each industry in each country and region supplements the market forecasts in order to give the reader a sense of the trends driving each forecast.

A competitive analysis of the major firms involved in electricity generation around the globe is presented. The firms that are analyzed include the major companies active in the major markets covered in this report. These include independent power producers, electric utilities with generation businesses for their own consumption or for sale on the wholesale market, as well as integrated utility companies that have a strong presence in the electricity generation industry.

Market figures are based on total installed capital cost of generation and are projected at 2011 dollar value. Inflation is not computed into the projection figures.

INTENDED AUDIENCE

This report is an invaluable tool for business planners, acquisitions specialists, licensing strategists, product managers, market research analysts, investors, investor consultants and anyone interested in the global electricity generation market, the industry structure, and industry participants across the globe.

The importance of identifying overall market trends, product opportunities, emerging geographies, M&A opportunities, and insights that provide guidance for sales growth or defensive moves cannot be overstated for a variety of constituents, including:

Established companies in the industry shall benefit from the contents, including corporate strategy, sales and marketing, business development, and R&D.

Emerging energy technology players in the segment must understand specific market dynamics in the nations and regions presented here. They must also understand trends and how they relate to the future of global electricity generation.

Investment firms evaluating candidates for venture capital or hedged investments will gain insights as to the opportunity and risk that are being encountered in different industries across the globe. This report will enable them to have an understanding of opportunities for investments in the global energy-generating sector.

Equity analysts are provided detailed forecasts for the next 5 years, substantiated by quantitative analysis that can support further analysis to product and regional forecasts over the short and long run.

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES

Both primary and secondary research methodologies were used in preparing this study. An analysis of global electricity industry generation statistics was conducted in order to create the forecasts presented here. Forecasts of generation capacity in each country and region were acquired from a number of sources. The primary source of these data was the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2010. These data were supplemented and updated with data found in press releases, news articles, industry association analyses, and data published by specific companies analyzed in this report.

The primary source of capital and operating cost data for the market forecasts was the EIA's "Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generating Plants," published in November 2010. These data were supplemented with analyst estimates based on experience in the electricity generating industries.

Forecasts of market size in each year are made by multiplying the amount of generating capacity that is expected to be installed in a particular market in a particular year by the capital cost per unit of that technology. This provides a general high-level estimate of market size by technology and by country or region. The additional assumptions that go into the capital cost estimates for each technology are explained further in the Technologies chapter of this report.

The primary sources of data on each company analyzed and profiled include articles published by industry analysts as well as data available on company websites and in annual reports.

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 1

STUDY GOALS AND OBJECTIVES . 1

REASONS FOR DOING THE STUDY .. 1

SCOPE OF REPORT .. 1

INTENDED AUDIENCE 2

METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES ... 3

ANALYST CREDENTIALS 3

RELATED REPORTS . 4

BCC ONLINE SERVICES .. 4

DISCLAIMER . 4

CHAPTER TWO: SUMMARY .. 5

SUMMARY TABLE GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY

GENERATION BY REGION, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) .. 5

SUMMARY FIGURE GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY

GENERATION BY REGION, 2010-2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 6

SUMMARY (CONTINUED) ... 7

CHAPTER THREE: OVERVIEW 8

THE ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY 8

CONCEPTS IN THE INDUSTRY .. 9

ENERGY AND POWER ... 9

ELECTRICITY GENERATING REQUIREMENTS ... 9

CAPITAL COSTS ... 10

LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY . 10

ELECTRICITY GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES 10

LIFE CYCLE AND THE NATURE OF POWER SECTOR

INVESTMENTS .. 11

IMPORTANCE OF THE INDUSTRY .. 11

FORESEEABLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS .. 12

GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS ... 13

EFFECT ON THE FUTURE 13

UTILITY-SCALE ELECTRICITY STORAGE (UES) TECHNOLOGIES .. 13

COSTS AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY ... 14

PUMPED HYDROLOGIC STORAGE ... 15

COMPRESSED AIR ENERGY STORAGE ... 16

BENEFITS OF UTILITY-SCALE ELECTRICITY STORAGE

TECHNOLOGIES 17

GRID BENEFITS ... 17

Load Leveling... 18

FIGURE 1 REPRESENTATION OF A DAILY LOAD CURVE ... 19

Capacity Factor/Dispatch for Intermittent Renewables 20

Peaking Power Support ... 21

OFFSET OF NEEDED PEAKING POWER GENERATION

CAPACITY 21

OFFSET OF NEEDED RENEWABLE GENERATION

CAPACITY 22

ECONOMIC BENEFITS 23

Energy Arbitrage . 23

Investment Deferral 23

RENEWABLE ENERGY DISPATCH AND TIMING BENEFITS

(ABILITY TO MEET RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGETS,

ETC.) .. 24

Carbon Capture and Storage .. 24

Carbon Capture and Storage (Continued) ... 25

TABLE 1 VALUE CUMULATIVE CAPITAL BASE OF CCS

TECHNOLOGIES, THROUGH 2014 ($ BILLIONS) .. 26

ALTERNATE ELECTRICAL POWER STORAGE 27

TABLE 2 ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STORAGE MARKET BY POWER

SOURCE, CONSENSUS SCENARIO, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) .. 28

SMART GRID 28

DEFINITIONS ... 28

BENEFITS OF SMART GRIDS 28

Direct Benefits . 29

Benefits to Utilities ... 29

Lower Capital Costs ... 29

Reduced Operating Costs .. 29

Benefits to Users ... 30

Improved Quality and Reliability . 30

Lower Costs 31

CHAPTER FOUR: TECHNOLOGIES ... 32

INTRODUCTION . 32

COST DATA AND MARKET FORECASTS 32

ASSUMPTIONS 33

DATA SOURCES .. 34

SUMMARY 34

TABLE 3 ASSUMED COSTS OF GENERATING TECHNOLOGIES

($/KW) 34

COAL . 35

PULVERIZED COAL . 35

INTEGRATED GASIFICATION COMBINED CYCLE (IGCC) ... 36

IGCC WITH CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE (IGCC-CCS) .. 36

TABLE 4 CAPITAL COST OF COAL TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KWYR.,

$/MWH) . 36

REPRESENTATIVE SUBTECHNOLOGY AND COST ... 36

NATURAL GAS 37

NATURAL GAS TURBINE (CT) ... 37

NATURAL GAS COMBINED CYCLE (NGCC) 37

TABLE 5 COST OF NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KWYR.,

$/MWH) . 37

REPRESENTATIVE SUBTECHNOLOGY AND COST ... 38

NUCLEAR . 38

TABLE 6 COST OF NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KW-YR.,

$/MWH) . 38

HYDROPOWER 39

TABLE 7 COST OF HYDROPOWER TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KWYR.,

$/MWH) . 39

SOLAR ... 39

SOLAR THERMAL 40

SOLAR PV CRYSTALLINE ... 40

SOLAR PV THIN FILM . 40

TABLE 8 COST OF SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KW-YR.,

$/MWH) . 40

REPRESENTATIVE SUBTECHNOLOGY AND COST ... 40

WIND . 41

ONSHORE WIND .. 41

OFFSHORE WIND 41

TABLE 9 COST OF WIND TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KW-YR.,

$/MWH) . 42

REPRESENTATIVE SUBTECHNOLOGY AND COST ... 42

BIOMASS .. 42

BIOMASS COMBINED CYCLE (BCC) . 42

BIOMASS BUBBLING FLUIDIZED BED REACTOR (BBFB) ... 43

TABLE 10 COST OF BIOMASS TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KW-YR.,

$/MWH) . 43

GEOTHERMAL 43

TABLE 11 COST OF GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGIES ($/KW, $/KWYR.,

$/MWH) . 44

CHAPTER FIVE: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ... 45

DRIVING FORCES IN THE INDUSTRY 45

GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS AND POLICIES . 45

Rate Regulation ... 46

Development Priorities 46

Environmental Regulations 47

ELECTRICITY MARKET STRUCTURE .. 48

Privatization 48

Competition .. 49

TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS . 50

New Generation Technologies . 50

Incremental Developments in Existing Technologies 50

FUEL PRICES 50

STRATEGIES FOR STAYING COMPETITIVE . 51

MANAGING GOVERNMENT REGULATIONS AND

DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES ... 51

Entering Into Profitable Long-Term Supply Contracts . 52

Manage Fuel Supply and Fuel Price Risk .. 52

Managing Competitive Markets . 52

Export Knowledge and Technology . 53

SHIFTS IN THE INDUSTRY ... 53

IMPACT ON/OF OTHER INDUSTRIES . 54

FUELS 54

COMMODITY PRICES .. 54

EFFECT ON THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE . 55

CHAPTER SIX: MARKETS BY TECHNOLOGY .. 56

SUMMARY 56

TABLE 12 GLOBAL CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) . 56

SUMMARY (CONTINUED) .. 57

TABLE 13 GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 58

COAL . 58

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 58

INDUSTRY TRENDS 59

TABLE 14 GLOBAL COAL ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY,

THROUGH 2016 (GW) ... 59

Coal Electricity Generation in Non-OECD Asia and the

U.S. . 59

Coal Electricity Generation in OECD Europe and OECD

Asia . 60

COAL INDUSTRY FORECAST 61

TABLE 15 GLOBAL COAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 61

NATURAL GAS 62

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 62

INDUSTRY TRENDS 62

TABLE 16 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY GENERATION

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) . 63

NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST ... 63

TABLE 17 GLOBAL NATURAL GAS ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 64

U.S. ... 64

Mexico, Brazil and Central and South America . 64

OECD Europe .. 65

Russia ... 65

Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia other than Russia .. 65

India . 65

Africa and the Middle East . 65

LIQUID FUELS 66

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY, INDUSTRY

TRENDS, FORECAST .. 66

TABLE 18 GLOBAL LIQUID FUEL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) .. 66

NUCLEAR . 67

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 67

INDUSTRY TRENDS 67

Fukushima Daiichi and the Future of Nuclear Power ... 67

Fukushima Daiichi and the … (Continued) . 68

Diversifying Electricity Generation 69

Project Risk and Uncertainty .. 69

EXISTING CAPACITY .. 69

TABLE 19 GLOBAL NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) .. 70

NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST ... 70

TABLE 20 GLOBAL NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 70

HYDROPOWER 71

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 71

INDUSTRY TRENDS 72

TABLE 21 GLOBAL HYDROPOWER ELECTRICITY GENERATION

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) .. 72

HYDROPOWER ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST ... 73

TABLE 22 GLOBAL HYDROPOWER ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 73

WIND . 73

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 73

INDUSTRY TRENDS 74

TABLE 23 GLOBAL WIND ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY,

THROUGH 2016 (GW) ... 74

WIND ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY FORECAST ... 75

TABLE 24 GLOBAL WIND ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 75

SOLAR ... 76

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 76

INDUSTRY TRENDS 76

TABLE 25 GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY,

THROUGH 2016 (GW) ... 77

TABLE 26 GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY,

THROUGH 2016 (GW) ... 77

SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST ... 78

TABLE 27 GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 78

TABLE 28 GLOBAL SOLAR ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) 79

GEOTHERMAL 80

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 80

INDUSTRY TRENDS 80

TABLE 29 GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) . 81

GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST ... 81

TABLE 30 GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 81

TABLE 31 GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 82

BIOMASS .. 82

ROLE IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY . 82

INDUSTRY TRENDS 83

TABLE 32 GLOBAL BIOMASS ELECTRICITY GENERATION

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) .. 83

BIOMASS ELECTRICITY GENERATION INDUSTRY

FORECAST ... 84

TABLE 33 GLOBAL BIOMASS ELECTRICITY GENERATION

INDUSTRY FORECAST, THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) .. 84

CHAPTER SEVEN: INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LANDSCAPE FOR

ENERGY GENERATION .. 85

TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY FOR ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

PATENTS . 85

FIGURE 2 PATENT APPLICATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY, <1980-2005

(NUMBER/) ... 86

FIGURE 2 (CONTINUED) . 87

TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY FOR … (CONTINUED) ... 88

CHAPTER EIGHT: REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE GLOBAL MARKET ... 89

INTRODUCTION . 89

GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION TRENDS 90

SUMMARY 90

TABLE 34 GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY,

THROUGH 2016 (GW) ... 91

TABLE 35 GLOBAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY

ADDITIONS BY COUNTRY/REGION, 2011-2016 (GW) ... 92

TABLE 36 GLOBAL MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) ... 93

CHAPTER NINE: NORTH AMERICA .. 94

UNITED STATES . 94

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE . 95

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS . 95

The DOE and ARPA-E 96

April 14, 2011 96

The DOE and APRPA-E (Continued) ... 97

TABLE 37 ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY – ENERGY

(ARPA-E) (FUNDING PROFILE BY SUBPROGRAM) ... 98

EXISTING GENERATION 98

TABLE 38 U.S. CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) .. 99

INDUSTRY FORECAST 99

TABLE 39 U.S. MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 100

CANADA . 101

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ... 102

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS ... 102

EXISTING GENERATION .. 103

TABLE 40 CANADIAN CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) 104

INDUSTRY FORECAST .. 104

TABLE 41 CANADIAN MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 105

MEXICO .. 106

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ... 106

GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND REGULATIONS ... 106

EXISTING GENERATION .. 107

TABLE 42 MEXICAN CUMULATIVE ELECTRICITY GENERATING

CAPACITY, THROUGH 2016 (GW) 107

INDUSTRY FORECAST .. 108

TABLE 43 MEXICAN MARKET FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION,

THROUGH 2016 ($ MILLIONS) . 108

Industry Forecast (Continued) .. 109

CHAPTER TEN: COMPANY PROFILES ... 110

SUMMARY .. 110

COMPANIES .. 110

AES CORP. ... 110

Overview 110

Corporate Strategy 111

AES GENER SA ... 111

Overview 111

?EZ AS . 111

Overview 112

Corporate Strategy 112

CHINA RESOURCES POWER HOLDINGS CO. LTD. . 112

Overview 112

Corporate Strategy 112

CHINA YANGTZE POWER CO. LTD. 113

Overview 113

Corporate Strategy 113

CONSTELLATION ENERGY GROUP, INC. . 113

Overview 113

Corporate Strategy 114

DATANG INTERNATIONAL POWER GENERATION CO.,

LTD. . 114

Overview 114

Corporate Strategy 114

DOMINION RESOURCES, INC. 114

Overview 115

Corporate Strategy 115

E.ON AG ... 115

Overview 115

Corporate Strategy 115

ELECTRICITÉ DE FRANCE .. 116

Overview 116

Corporate Strategy 116

ELETROBRAS . 116

Overview 117

Corporate Strategy 117

ENDESA SA . 117

Overview 117

Corporate Strategy 118

ENEL SPA 118

Overview 118

Corporate Strategy 118

ENERGIE BADEN-WÜRTTEMBERG AG . 119

Overview 119

Corporate Strategy 119

ENERSIS SA 119

Overview 119

Corporate Strategy 120

ESKOM HOLDINGS LTD. .. 120

Overview 120

Corporate Strategy 120

EXELON CORP. ... 121

Overview 121

Corporate Strategy 121

HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL ... 121

Overview 121

Corporate Strategy 122

IBERDROLA SA ... 122

Overview 122

Corporate Strategy 122

INTERNATIONAL POWER PLC 122

Overview 123

Corporate Strategy 123

J-POWER/ELECTRIC POWER DEVELOPMENT CO., LTD 123

Overview 123

Corporate Strategy 123

MIDAMERICAN ENERGY HOLDINGS CO. . 124

Overview 124

NEXTERA ENERGY, INC. .. 124

Overview 124

Corporate Strategy 125

NRG ENERGY INC. . 125

Overview 125

Corporate Strategy 125

NTPC LTD. ... 126

Overview 126

Corporate Strategy 126

PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC. .. 126

Overview 126

Corporate Strategy 127

RUSHYDRO JSC . 127

Overview 127

Corporate Strategy 127

RWE AG 128

Overview 128

Corporate Strategy 128

SAUDI ELECTRICITY COMPANY 128

Overview 128

Corporate Strategy 129

SCOTTISH & SOUTHERN ENERGY PLC 129

Overview 129

Corporate Strategy 129

SEMPRA ENERGY .. 129

Overview 130

Corporate Strategy 130

SOUTHERN COMPANY . 130

Overview 130

Corporate Strategy 130

TATA POWER CO., LTD. 131

Overview 131

Corporate Strategy 131

TOKYO ELECTRIC POWER CO., INC. . 131

Overview 132

Corporate Strategy 132

VATTENFALL AB ... 132

Overview 132

Corporate Strategy 133

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