Japan Composite Indexes for January 2001

Apr 01, 2001, 00:00 ET from The Conference Board

    NEW YORK, April 1 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index for Japan decreased
 0.6 percent in January, and the coincident index decreased 0.7 percent in
 January.  Taken together, the decline in the two composite indexes point to
 continued uncertainty in Japan's economy in the coming months.
 
     *  The leading index is now back to the same level it was in the beginning
        of 2000.  This drop is fueled by broad declines in the manufacturing
        and financial sectors.  If this turns into a downward trend, it would
        lead to further declines in the coincident index.
 
     *  With the coincident index decreasing 0.7 percent in January, the recent
        volatility in economic activity continues despite the increases in the
        coincident index in the last quarter of 2000.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Ten of the twelve components that make up the leading
 index decreased in January. The negative contributors to the index -- in order
 from the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are ratio of price to
 unit labor cost in manufacturing, six-month growth rate of labor productivity,
 stock price index, new orders for machinery and construction, index of
 overtime worked in manufacturing, dwelling units started, business failures,
 change in consumer credit outstanding, yield spread, and real money supply.
 The positive contributors to the index -- in order from the largest positive
 contributor to the smallest -- are hours worked in all industries and real
 operating profits.
     With the decrease of 0.6 percent, the leading index now stands at 92.3
 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in
 December and decreased 1.2 percent in November.  During the six-month span
 through January, the index decreased 0.2 percent.  Six of the twelve
 components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up the
 coincident index decreased in January. The negative contributors -- in order
 from largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are industrial
 production, real wholesale sales, number of employed persons, and wage and
 salary income. The positive contributors -- in order from largest positive
 contributor to the smallest -- are real retail sales and real manufacturing
 sales.
     With the decrease of 0.7 percent in January, the coincident index now
 stands at 104.1 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3
 percent in December and increased 0.2 percent in November.  During the six-
 month span through January, the index increased 0.5 percent, and four of the
 six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 4 P.M. JST March
 28, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent data for manufacturing sales,
 operating profits, and change in consumer credit outstanding were based on
 estimates.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 1, 2001 at 10:00 A.M. JST
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide
 research and business membership group, with more than 2,700
 corporate and other members in 60 nations.  One of the leading
 private sources of economic and business intelligence, The
 Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy organization.
 In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility for
 computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department of
 Commerce, which is in keeping with its mission to improve the
 business enterprise system and to enhance the contribution of
 business to society.
 
 
     Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                  2000           2001     6-month
                             Nov.      Dec.      Jan.    Jul. - Jan.
 
     Leading index          92.8 r    92.9 p    92.3 p
       Percent Change       -1.2 r    +0.1 p    -0.6 p     -0.2 p
       Diffusion            20.8      66.7      20.8       50.0
 
     Coincident Index      104.5 r   104.8 p   104.1 p
       Percent Change       +0.2 r    +0.3 p    -0.7 p     +0.5 p
       Diffusion            50.0      50.0      33.3       66.7
 
     n.a.  Not available
     p     Preliminary
     r     Revised
 
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
 
     Source:  The Conference Board
 
 

SOURCE The Conference Board
    NEW YORK, April 1 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index for Japan decreased
 0.6 percent in January, and the coincident index decreased 0.7 percent in
 January.  Taken together, the decline in the two composite indexes point to
 continued uncertainty in Japan's economy in the coming months.
 
     *  The leading index is now back to the same level it was in the beginning
        of 2000.  This drop is fueled by broad declines in the manufacturing
        and financial sectors.  If this turns into a downward trend, it would
        lead to further declines in the coincident index.
 
     *  With the coincident index decreasing 0.7 percent in January, the recent
        volatility in economic activity continues despite the increases in the
        coincident index in the last quarter of 2000.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Ten of the twelve components that make up the leading
 index decreased in January. The negative contributors to the index -- in order
 from the largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are ratio of price to
 unit labor cost in manufacturing, six-month growth rate of labor productivity,
 stock price index, new orders for machinery and construction, index of
 overtime worked in manufacturing, dwelling units started, business failures,
 change in consumer credit outstanding, yield spread, and real money supply.
 The positive contributors to the index -- in order from the largest positive
 contributor to the smallest -- are hours worked in all industries and real
 operating profits.
     With the decrease of 0.6 percent, the leading index now stands at 92.3
 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in
 December and decreased 1.2 percent in November.  During the six-month span
 through January, the index decreased 0.2 percent.  Six of the twelve
 components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Four of the six components that make up the
 coincident index decreased in January. The negative contributors -- in order
 from largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are industrial
 production, real wholesale sales, number of employed persons, and wage and
 salary income. The positive contributors -- in order from largest positive
 contributor to the smallest -- are real retail sales and real manufacturing
 sales.
     With the decrease of 0.7 percent in January, the coincident index now
 stands at 104.1 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3
 percent in December and increased 0.2 percent in November.  During the six-
 month span through January, the index increased 0.5 percent, and four of the
 six components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 66.7 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 4 P.M. JST March
 28, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent data for manufacturing sales,
 operating profits, and change in consumer credit outstanding were based on
 estimates.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 1, 2001 at 10:00 A.M. JST
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide
 research and business membership group, with more than 2,700
 corporate and other members in 60 nations.  One of the leading
 private sources of economic and business intelligence, The
 Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy organization.
 In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility for
 computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department of
 Commerce, which is in keeping with its mission to improve the
 business enterprise system and to enhance the contribution of
 business to society.
 
 
     Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                  2000           2001     6-month
                             Nov.      Dec.      Jan.    Jul. - Jan.
 
     Leading index          92.8 r    92.9 p    92.3 p
       Percent Change       -1.2 r    +0.1 p    -0.6 p     -0.2 p
       Diffusion            20.8      66.7      20.8       50.0
 
     Coincident Index      104.5 r   104.8 p   104.1 p
       Percent Change       +0.2 r    +0.3 p    -0.7 p     +0.5 p
       Diffusion            50.0      50.0      33.3       66.7
 
     n.a.  Not available
     p     Preliminary
     r     Revised
 
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
 
     Source:  The Conference Board
 
 SOURCE  The Conference Board