Korea Composite Indexes for January 2001

Apr 03, 2001, 01:00 ET from The Conference Board

    NEW YORK, April 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index for Korea decreased
 0.4 percent in January, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent.  Taken
 together, the two indexes indicate slower economic activity ahead for the
 Korean economy.
 
     -- The 0.3 percent increase in the coincident index for January has
        brought the index back to September 1999 levels.  However, the declines
        in the leading index suggest further weakening in the coincident index
        in the coming months.
     -- A prolonged slowdown in industrial activity and unstable financial
        markets has brought the leading index down nearly six percent from its
        most recent peak in July.
     -- Despite the increase in the coincident index, its six-month diffusion
        index, as well as that of the leading index, indicate broad weakness
        across all components with diffusion levels well below 50 percent.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the seven components that make up the leading
 index decreased in January.  The negative contributors -- in order from
 largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are value of machinery orders
 in manufacturing, letter of credit arrivals for manufacturing, real exports,
 and index of inventories to shipments for manufacturing.  The positive
 contributors -- in order from largest positive contributor to the smallest --
 are stock price index, yield of government public bonds, and monthly hours
 worked.
     With the decrease of 0.4 percent in January, the leading index now stands
 at 111.1 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent
 in December and 1.0 percent in November.  During the six-month span through
 January, the index decreased 5.5 percent, and two of the seven components
 advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All four components that make up the coincident
 index increased in January.  The positive contributors -- in order from
 largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are wholesale and retail
 sales, unemployment rate, industrial production, and employment, excluding
 agriculture and forestry.
     With the increase of 0.3 percent in January, the coincident index now
 stands at 112.2 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index remained flat
 in December and decreased 0.4 percent in November.  During the six-month span
 through January, the index decreased 0.5 percent, and one component advanced
 (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 4 P.M. (GMT+9) on
 March 29, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent data for monthly hours
 worked was based on estimates.
     The next release is scheduled for May 4, 2001 at 10:00 A.M. (GMT+9)
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide research
 and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other
 members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic and
 business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy
 organization.  In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility
 for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
 which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system
 and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
                       Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                    2000                 2001         6-month
                              Nov.         Dec.          Jan.        Jul.-Jan.
 
     Leading index          112.1 r       111.6 p      111.1 p            --
      Percent Change         -1.0 r        -0.4 p       -0.4 p        -5.5 p
      Diffusion                28.6          57.1         57.1          28.6
 
     Coincident Index       111.9 r       111.9 r      112.2 p            --
      Percent Change         -0.4 r         0.0 r       +0.3 p        -0.5 p
      Diffusion                12.5          37.5         87.5          25.0
 
     n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
     Source:  The Conference Board
 
 

SOURCE The Conference Board
    NEW YORK, April 3 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index for Korea decreased
 0.4 percent in January, and the coincident index increased 0.3 percent.  Taken
 together, the two indexes indicate slower economic activity ahead for the
 Korean economy.
 
     -- The 0.3 percent increase in the coincident index for January has
        brought the index back to September 1999 levels.  However, the declines
        in the leading index suggest further weakening in the coincident index
        in the coming months.
     -- A prolonged slowdown in industrial activity and unstable financial
        markets has brought the leading index down nearly six percent from its
        most recent peak in July.
     -- Despite the increase in the coincident index, its six-month diffusion
        index, as well as that of the leading index, indicate broad weakness
        across all components with diffusion levels well below 50 percent.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Four of the seven components that make up the leading
 index decreased in January.  The negative contributors -- in order from
 largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are value of machinery orders
 in manufacturing, letter of credit arrivals for manufacturing, real exports,
 and index of inventories to shipments for manufacturing.  The positive
 contributors -- in order from largest positive contributor to the smallest --
 are stock price index, yield of government public bonds, and monthly hours
 worked.
     With the decrease of 0.4 percent in January, the leading index now stands
 at 111.1 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent
 in December and 1.0 percent in November.  During the six-month span through
 January, the index decreased 5.5 percent, and two of the seven components
 advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 28.6 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All four components that make up the coincident
 index increased in January.  The positive contributors -- in order from
 largest positive contributor to the smallest -- are wholesale and retail
 sales, unemployment rate, industrial production, and employment, excluding
 agriculture and forestry.
     With the increase of 0.3 percent in January, the coincident index now
 stands at 112.2 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index remained flat
 in December and decreased 0.4 percent in November.  During the six-month span
 through January, the index decreased 0.5 percent, and one component advanced
 (diffusion index, six-month span equals 25 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 4 P.M. (GMT+9) on
 March 29, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent data for monthly hours
 worked was based on estimates.
     The next release is scheduled for May 4, 2001 at 10:00 A.M. (GMT+9)
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide research
 and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other
 members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic and
 business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy
 organization.  In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility
 for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce,
 which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system
 and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
                       Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                    2000                 2001         6-month
                              Nov.         Dec.          Jan.        Jul.-Jan.
 
     Leading index          112.1 r       111.6 p      111.1 p            --
      Percent Change         -1.0 r        -0.4 p       -0.4 p        -5.5 p
      Diffusion                28.6          57.1         57.1          28.6
 
     Coincident Index       111.9 r       111.9 r      112.2 p            --
      Percent Change         -0.4 r         0.0 r       +0.3 p        -0.5 p
      Diffusion                12.5          37.5         87.5          25.0
 
     n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
     Source:  The Conference Board
 
 SOURCE  The Conference Board