'Landslide Victory by Obama' is Forecasted by ISR, an Asian-American Think Tank

Nov 04, 2008, 09:31 ET from ISR Foundation

Obama Takes the White House with 378 Electoral Votes and a 52.2% of Popular Vote Majority

Democrats Firmly Control the Congress: Senate by 58 to 40 and House by 257 to 178

WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, an Asian-American think tank, forecasts a "landslide presidential election victory" by Barack Obama, capturing 378 electoral votes and winning a popular vote majority of 52.2 percent over John McCain, the first time Democrats have gained such a majority vote since President Jimmy Carter won 50.1 percent in 1976. ISR predicts Democrats to expand its firm control of the Congress and governorship as well, resulting in a "One-Party rule," yet short of a couple of Senate seats to overcome Filibuster.

President Asaph Young Chun, who developed the ISR forecasting model in 2003 and proved its viability in the past two elections, identifies Obama's capturing of the White House is grounded on "winning 11 of 15 battleground states including Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania" and capturing 19 out of 35 states that tended to follow party-line in 2000 and 2004 elections. The ISR G3 model predicts McCain would hold just 160 electoral votes and 45.4 percent of popular vote and fail to overcome the collapsing impact on voters in Main Street of the great economic crisis in Wall Street.

According to the ISR G3 forecasting model, designed to reduce "polling house effect" and make a viable voting prediction of "undecided voters," Obama is expected to take an average lead of 60% to 40% among females, independents, Hispanic and Asian minority, and undecided whereas McCain's lead comes only among White evangelicals. Obama is forecasted to win among most groups of voters classified by education, age, and income.

ISR forecasting reveals that Obama's landslide victory is based on his winning of 11 out of 15 battleground states including Pennsylvania (21 votes - 56.2% to 43.8%), New Mexico (5 votes - 54.9% to 45.1%), New Hampshire (4 votes - 54.4% to 45.6%), Virginia (13 votes - 54.1% to 45.9%), Ohio (20 votes - 53.7% to 46.3%), Colorado (9 votes - 53.5% to 46.5%), Nevada (5 votes - 52.3% to 47.7%), Florida (27 votes - 52.0% to 48.0%), North Carolina (15 votes - 51.2% to 48.8%), Missouri (11 votes - 50.9% to 49.1%), and Indiana (11 votes - 50.8% to 49.2%). ISR predicts McCain winning Georgia (15 votes - 47.9% to 52.1%), Montana (3 votes - 47.6% to 52.4%), Arizona (10 votes - 45.9% to 54.1%), and West Virginia (5 votes - 45.2% to 54.8%).

Among the remaining 35 states that tended to follow party-line in the past two elections, ISR G3 model forecasts Obama's winning formula is settled by capturing 19 blue states mostly in Northeast, West coast, and Midwest, whereas McCain holds 16 red states mostly in South and Rocky and Plain regions. ISR predicts that states to be captured by Obama include Hawaii, New York, California, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, Michigan, Washington, Maine, Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, North Dakota, and Washington DC. McCain is expected to win South Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas, South Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Nebraska, Wyoming, Alabama, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Utah. Iowa and North Dakota, both captured by Republican in 2004, would turn out to belong to Democrat this time.

ISR G3 model has proved its forecasting viability by accurately predicting the 2004 presidential election results and the 2006 mid-term elections of the Senate when most polling firms were not successful of forecasting competitive election outcomes. Forecasting results of past U.S. elections by ISR G3 model were reported in the major media in South Korea including Chosun, Joongang, and Yonhap News.

ISR G3 model predicts that Democrats expand their control of the Senate by winning 58 seats, yet short of overcoming Filibuster by Republicans who are expected to hold 40 seats. Two other Senate seats do not belong to either party. Among the eight tight races of Senate, ISR predicts Democrats' win in Alaska, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Oregon, and Republicans' victory in Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi (Musgrove vs. Wicker). Democrats' lead in the Congress is also forecasted by expanding House seats with a lead of 257 to 178 over Republicans, according to ISR election analysis. In the less competitive Governor's races, the ISR G3 model predicts Democrats control 29 states by winning 7 out of 11 Governor's races including Washington (51.1% to 48%) and North Carolina (50.7% to 49.3%).

For additional information on the 2008 election forecasting of ISR, contact President Asaph Young Chun or visit ISR2020.org/KR/k_main.htm

ABOUT ISR Foundation. The International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation, a Washington-based Asian-American think tank, studies elections forecasting, international conflict and reconciliation management, East Asia policies, and education and public health programs with emphasis on the disadvantaged people. Leaders representing ISR Foundation include Honorary Chairman Chanmo Park, former President of Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH); International Chairman Syngman Rhee, former Moderator of Presbyterian Churches USA; President Asaph Young Chun, a social psychologist and survey methodologist; Sugwoon Kwon, Professor of Ulsan College of Medicine; and Jaechun Kim, Professor of Sogang University.

CONTACT: Asaph Young Chun, President

International Strategy and Reconciliation Foundation (ISR)

Voice 202 255 0603, 301 570 3948 ISR2020@Gmail.com


SOURCE ISR Foundation