The Conference Board: Germany Composite Indexes for March 2001

Apr 26, 2001, 01:00 ET from The Conference Board

    NEW YORK, April 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index decreased 0.6 percent
 in March, and the coincident index remained unchanged.  Taken together, the
 composite indexes show continued weakness in the German economy.
 
     -- The leading index continued on a sharp downward trend since its peak
        in February of last year, an indication that further weakness in the
        coincident index is likely in the coming months.
     -- With the March data, the coincident index has remained essentially flat
        for the past six months, in contrast to the rapid growth in the index
        earlier last year.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Eight of the nine components of the leading index
 decreased in March. The negative contributors to the leading index -in order
 from the largest negative contributor to smallest -are stock prices, growth
 rate of CPI Services, inventory change, consumer confidence index, new orders
 in investment goods industries, the yield spread, new residential construction
 orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. The inverted applications
 for unemployment compensation is the only component which increased in March.
     With the decrease of 0.6 percent in March, the leading index now stands at
 103.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.6 percent
 in February and decreased 0.5 percent in January.  During the six-month
 span through March, the leading index declined 2.0 percent, and only two of
 the nine components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals
 22.2 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components of the coincident
 index increased in March.  The increases are in industrial production,
 manufacturing sales, and retail trade.  The unemployment rate held steady in
 March.
     With no change in March, the coincident index stands at 101.8 (1990=100).
 Based on revised data,this index increased 0.1 percent in February, and
 increased 0.2 percent in January.  During the six-month period through March,
 the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with three of four series making
 positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10
 A.M. CET (Germany) on April 25, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent data
 for several of the series were based on estimates.  In the leading index,
 recent data for new orders for investment goods industries, consumer
 confidence, new residential construction orders, inventory change, and gross
 enterprises and properties income were based on estimates.  In the coincident
 index, recent data for industrial production, manufacturing sales and retail
 trade were also based on estimates.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 29, 2001 at 3:30 P.M. CET
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide research
 and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other
 members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic and
 business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy
 organization. In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility
 for computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department of Commerce,
 which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system
 and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
              Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                    2001               6-month
                               Jan.      Feb.      Mar.    Sep. - Mar.
 
     Leading index           104.9 p    104.3 p  103.7 p
      Percent Change         -0.5 p     -0.6 p   -0.6 p     -2.0 p
      Diffusion              44.4       16.7     16.7       22.2
 
     Coincident Index        101.7      101.8 r  101.8 p
      Percent Change         +0.2 r     +0.1 r    0.0 p      0.2 p
      Diffusion              87.5       87.5     87.5       75.0
 
      n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
      Indexes equal 100 in 1990
      Source:  The Conference Board
 
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SOURCE The Conference Board
    NEW YORK, April 26 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index decreased 0.6 percent
 in March, and the coincident index remained unchanged.  Taken together, the
 composite indexes show continued weakness in the German economy.
 
     -- The leading index continued on a sharp downward trend since its peak
        in February of last year, an indication that further weakness in the
        coincident index is likely in the coming months.
     -- With the March data, the coincident index has remained essentially flat
        for the past six months, in contrast to the rapid growth in the index
        earlier last year.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Eight of the nine components of the leading index
 decreased in March. The negative contributors to the leading index -in order
 from the largest negative contributor to smallest -are stock prices, growth
 rate of CPI Services, inventory change, consumer confidence index, new orders
 in investment goods industries, the yield spread, new residential construction
 orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. The inverted applications
 for unemployment compensation is the only component which increased in March.
     With the decrease of 0.6 percent in March, the leading index now stands at
 103.7 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.6 percent
 in February and decreased 0.5 percent in January.  During the six-month
 span through March, the leading index declined 2.0 percent, and only two of
 the nine components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals
 22.2 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components of the coincident
 index increased in March.  The increases are in industrial production,
 manufacturing sales, and retail trade.  The unemployment rate held steady in
 March.
     With no change in March, the coincident index stands at 101.8 (1990=100).
 Based on revised data,this index increased 0.1 percent in February, and
 increased 0.2 percent in January.  During the six-month period through March,
 the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with three of four series making
 positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 75 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10
 A.M. CET (Germany) on April 25, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent data
 for several of the series were based on estimates.  In the leading index,
 recent data for new orders for investment goods industries, consumer
 confidence, new residential construction orders, inventory change, and gross
 enterprises and properties income were based on estimates.  In the coincident
 index, recent data for industrial production, manufacturing sales and retail
 trade were also based on estimates.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 29, 2001 at 3:30 P.M. CET
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide research
 and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other
 members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic and
 business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy
 organization. In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility
 for computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department of Commerce,
 which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system
 and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
              Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                    2001               6-month
                               Jan.      Feb.      Mar.    Sep. - Mar.
 
     Leading index           104.9 p    104.3 p  103.7 p
      Percent Change         -0.5 p     -0.6 p   -0.6 p     -2.0 p
      Diffusion              44.4       16.7     16.7       22.2
 
     Coincident Index        101.7      101.8 r  101.8 p
      Percent Change         +0.2 r     +0.1 r    0.0 p      0.2 p
      Diffusion              87.5       87.5     87.5       75.0
 
      n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
      Indexes equal 100 in 1990
      Source:  The Conference Board
 
                      MAKE YOUR OPINION COUNT - Click Here
                http://tbutton.prnewswire.com/prn/11690X70624224
 
 SOURCE  The Conference Board