The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. Decreased

Aug 11, 2015, 09:30 ET from The Conference Board

NEW YORK, Aug. 11, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. decreased 0.2 percent in June to 112.4 (2010= 100), following a 0.4 percent decline in May, and a 0.3 percent increase in April.

At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in June, remaining at 105.4 (2010 = 100). The index was also unchanged in May and April.

The LEI for the U.K. has contracted for two consecutive months, and its six-month growth rate—though still positive—has slowed slightly in recent months. Meanwhile, the CEI has been flat in the second quarter, and as a result its six-month growth rate has moderated considerably. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes suggests that the economy is likely to continue to grow in the short-term, but the pace is unlikely to pick up.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading or coincident indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume, CBI Monthly Enquiry 
Volume of Expected Output, CBI Monthly Enquiry 
Consumer Confidence 
Stock Prices, FTSE all share price index 
Yield Spread, 10 years minus Bank Rate 
Productivity, Whole Economy Index 
Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations

For more information including full press release and technical notes: 
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=2

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators: http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is an independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.  www.conference-board.org.

 

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2015


6-month


Apr


May


Jun


Dec to Jun










Leading Economic Index (LEI)

113.0

p

112.6

p

112.4

p



  Percent Change

0.3

p

-0.4

p

-0.2

p

0.7

p

  Diffusion

78.6


42.9


42.9


85.7











Coincident Economic Index (CEI)

105.4

p

105.4

p

105.4

p



  Percent Change

0.0

p

0.0

p

0.0

p

0.3

p

  Diffusion

75.0


75.0


37.5


100.0











n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised






Indexes equal 100 in 2010









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SOURCE The Conference Board



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