The Conference Board: U.K. Composite Indexes for March 2001

Apr 19, 2001, 01:00 ET from The Conference Board

    NEW YORK, April 19 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent
 in March, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent.  Taken together, the
 two composite indexes indicate that the UK economy will continue to grow but
 at a moderate pace through the summer of 2001.
 
      -- The recent acceleration in the leading index was paused in March as a
         result of weakness in the financial indicators and export orders.
         However, the real sectors of the UK economy remained strong.
      -- The coincident index continued its upward trend in March but it grew
         at a moderate pace as already indicated by the weakness in the leading
         index throughout last year.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the eight components that make up the leading
 index decreased in March.  The most significant decreases -- in order from the
 largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are stock prices, export order
 book volume, new orders in engineering industries, bond yields, and money
 supply. Three components increased in March. The positive contributors -- in
 order from the largest to smallest -- are changes in inventories, housing
 starts, and consumer confidence.
     With the decrease of 0.2 percent, the leading index now stands at
 118.2 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in
 February and increased 1.0 percent in January.  During the six-month span
 through March, the leading index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the eight
 components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 56.3 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All of the four components of the coincident index
 increased in March.  The increases -- in order from largest contributor to
 smallest -- are inverted unemployment rate, real households' disposable
 income, industrial production, and retail sales.
     With the 0.1 percent increase, the coincident index now stands at
 112.6 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in
 February and held steady in January.  During the six-month period through
 March, the coincident index increased 0.9 percent, with two of the four
 components making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span
 equals 62.5 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. EST on
 April 18, 2001.  In the release, recent data for the following series are
 based on estimates: changes in inventories, money supply, new orders in
 engineering industries, housing starts, real household disposable income,
 industrial production, and retail sales.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 22, 2001 at 3:30 P.M. GMT
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD--The Conference Board is a worldwide research
 and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other
 members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic and
 business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy
 organization.
     In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility for
 computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department of Commerce, which
 is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system and
 to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
                     Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                       2000-2001             6-month
                             January   February   March    Sep. - Mar.
 
 
     Leading index           118.2 p   118.4 p   118.2 p
      Percent Change          1.0 p     0.2 p    -0.2 p      1.2
      Diffusion              81.3      62.5      37.5       56.3
 
     Coincident Index        112.4 p   112.5 p   112.6 p
      Percent Change          0.0 p     0.1 p     0.1 p      0.9
      Diffusion              62.5      62.5     100.0       62.5
 
     n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
 
 

SOURCE The Conference Board
    NEW YORK, April 19 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent
 in March, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent.  Taken together, the
 two composite indexes indicate that the UK economy will continue to grow but
 at a moderate pace through the summer of 2001.
 
      -- The recent acceleration in the leading index was paused in March as a
         result of weakness in the financial indicators and export orders.
         However, the real sectors of the UK economy remained strong.
      -- The coincident index continued its upward trend in March but it grew
         at a moderate pace as already indicated by the weakness in the leading
         index throughout last year.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Five of the eight components that make up the leading
 index decreased in March.  The most significant decreases -- in order from the
 largest negative contributor to the smallest -- are stock prices, export order
 book volume, new orders in engineering industries, bond yields, and money
 supply. Three components increased in March. The positive contributors -- in
 order from the largest to smallest -- are changes in inventories, housing
 starts, and consumer confidence.
     With the decrease of 0.2 percent, the leading index now stands at
 118.2 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.2 percent in
 February and increased 1.0 percent in January.  During the six-month span
 through March, the leading index increased 1.2 percent, and four of the eight
 components advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 56.3 percent).
 
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  All of the four components of the coincident index
 increased in March.  The increases -- in order from largest contributor to
 smallest -- are inverted unemployment rate, real households' disposable
 income, industrial production, and retail sales.
     With the 0.1 percent increase, the coincident index now stands at
 112.6 (1990=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in
 February and held steady in January.  During the six-month period through
 March, the coincident index increased 0.9 percent, with two of the four
 components making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span
 equals 62.5 percent).
 
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. EST on
 April 18, 2001.  In the release, recent data for the following series are
 based on estimates: changes in inventories, money supply, new orders in
 engineering industries, housing starts, real household disposable income,
 industrial production, and retail sales.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 22, 2001 at 3:30 P.M. GMT
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD--The Conference Board is a worldwide research
 and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and other
 members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic and
 business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy
 organization.
     In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed responsibility for
 computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department of Commerce, which
 is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system and
 to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
                     Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                                       2000-2001             6-month
                             January   February   March    Sep. - Mar.
 
 
     Leading index           118.2 p   118.4 p   118.2 p
      Percent Change          1.0 p     0.2 p    -0.2 p      1.2
      Diffusion              81.3      62.5      37.5       56.3
 
     Coincident Index        112.4 p   112.5 p   112.6 p
      Percent Change          0.0 p     0.1 p     0.1 p      0.9
      Diffusion              62.5      62.5     100.0       62.5
 
     n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
 
 SOURCE  The Conference Board