The Conference Board's France Composite Indexes for February 2001

Apr 05, 2001, 01:00 ET from The Conference Board

    NEW YORK, April 5 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent
 in February, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent.
 
     -- Although the leading index has been declining since June of last year,
        it is only 1.5 percent below its high of June 2000 and still remains
        almost 2 percent above its most recent low of April 1999.
     -- Since late 1996, economic activity has continued to increase as shown
        by the coincident index but the pace is slowing slightly.
     -- Going forward, improvements in financial markets and the residential
        sector would enhance consumers' generally positive outlook on the
        economy and strengthen the leading index.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Six of the ten components of the leading index
 decreased in February.  The negative contributors to the leading index -- in
 order from the largest negative contributor to smallest -- are Consumer
 Confidence Index, Stock Price Index, Change in Stocks, New Unemployment
 Claims, Yield Spread, and the Ratio of the Deflator of Manufacturing Value
 Added to Unit Labor Cost in Manufacturing.  Two components increased in
 February.  The positive contributors -in order from the largest
 to smallest- are Personal Consumption of Manufacturing Goods and Building
 Permits (residential).  The Bond Yield (10 year) and Industrial New Orders
 (opinion balance) remained flat in February.
     With the decrease of 0.2 percent in February, the leading index now stands
 at 106.6 (1990=100).  This index decreased 0.1 percent in January and
 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the
 leading index declined 1.1 percent, and only four of the ten components
 increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40 percent).
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components of the coincident
 index increased in February.  The increases -- in order from the largest
 positive contributors to the smallest -- occurred in Paid Employment, Retail
 Sales and Industrial Production.  Real Imports decreased in February.
     With the 0.1 percent increase in February, the coincident index now stands
 at 113.2 (1990=100).  This index increased 0.2 percent in January, and
 increased 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month period through
 February, the coincident index increased 1.0 percent, with three of four
 series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals
 75 percent).
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of"
 10 A.M. CET (France) on March 28, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent
 data for several of the series were based on estimates.  In the leading index,
 recent data for Building Permits (residential), New Unemployment Claims,
 Change in Stocks, and Ratio Deflator of Manufacturing Value Added to Unit
 Labor Cost in Manufacturing were based on estimates.  In the coincident index,
 recent data for Industrial Production, Real Imports and Paid Employment were
 also based on estimates.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 3, 2001 at 3:30 P.M. CET
 (France)
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide
 research and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and
 other members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic
 and business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit,
 non-advocacy organization.  In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed
 responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department
 of Commerce, which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business
 enterprise system and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
              Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                               2000                2001            6-month
                               Dec.          Jan.         Feb.   Aug. - Feb.
 
 
     Leading index          106.9 p       106.8 p      106.6 p
     Percent Change          -0.2 p        -0.1 p       -0.2 p          -1.1
     Diffusion                 40.0          45.0         40.0          40.0
 
     Coincident Index       112.9 p       113.1 p      113.2 p
     Percent Change          +0.2 p        +0.2 p       +0.1 p          +1.0
     Diffusion                 75.0          50.0         75.0          75.0
 
 
     n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
 
 

SOURCE The Conference Board
    NEW YORK, April 5 /PRNewswire/ -- The leading index decreased 0.2 percent
 in February, and the coincident index increased 0.1 percent.
 
     -- Although the leading index has been declining since June of last year,
        it is only 1.5 percent below its high of June 2000 and still remains
        almost 2 percent above its most recent low of April 1999.
     -- Since late 1996, economic activity has continued to increase as shown
        by the coincident index but the pace is slowing slightly.
     -- Going forward, improvements in financial markets and the residential
        sector would enhance consumers' generally positive outlook on the
        economy and strengthen the leading index.
 
     LEADING INDICATORS.  Six of the ten components of the leading index
 decreased in February.  The negative contributors to the leading index -- in
 order from the largest negative contributor to smallest -- are Consumer
 Confidence Index, Stock Price Index, Change in Stocks, New Unemployment
 Claims, Yield Spread, and the Ratio of the Deflator of Manufacturing Value
 Added to Unit Labor Cost in Manufacturing.  Two components increased in
 February.  The positive contributors -in order from the largest
 to smallest- are Personal Consumption of Manufacturing Goods and Building
 Permits (residential).  The Bond Yield (10 year) and Industrial New Orders
 (opinion balance) remained flat in February.
     With the decrease of 0.2 percent in February, the leading index now stands
 at 106.6 (1990=100).  This index decreased 0.1 percent in January and
 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month span through February, the
 leading index declined 1.1 percent, and only four of the ten components
 increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 40 percent).
     COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Three of the four components of the coincident
 index increased in February.  The increases -- in order from the largest
 positive contributors to the smallest -- occurred in Paid Employment, Retail
 Sales and Industrial Production.  Real Imports decreased in February.
     With the 0.1 percent increase in February, the coincident index now stands
 at 113.2 (1990=100).  This index increased 0.2 percent in January, and
 increased 0.2 percent in December.  During the six-month period through
 February, the coincident index increased 1.0 percent, with three of four
 series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals
 75 percent).
     DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute the two composite
 indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of"
 10 A.M. CET (France) on March 28, 2001.  At the time of the release, recent
 data for several of the series were based on estimates.  In the leading index,
 recent data for Building Permits (residential), New Unemployment Claims,
 Change in Stocks, and Ratio Deflator of Manufacturing Value Added to Unit
 Labor Cost in Manufacturing were based on estimates.  In the coincident index,
 recent data for Industrial Production, Real Imports and Paid Employment were
 also based on estimates.
 
     NOTICE:  The next release is scheduled for May 3, 2001 at 3:30 P.M. CET
 (France)
 
     ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD -- The Conference Board is a worldwide
 research and business membership group, with more than 2,700 corporate and
 other members in 60 nations.  One of the leading private sources of economic
 and business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit,
 non-advocacy organization.  In December 1995, the Conference Board assumed
 responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S.  Department
 of Commerce, which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business
 enterprise system and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
 
              Summary Table of Composite Indexes
 
                               2000                2001            6-month
                               Dec.          Jan.         Feb.   Aug. - Feb.
 
 
     Leading index          106.9 p       106.8 p      106.6 p
     Percent Change          -0.2 p        -0.1 p       -0.2 p          -1.1
     Diffusion                 40.0          45.0         40.0          40.0
 
     Coincident Index       112.9 p       113.1 p      113.2 p
     Percent Change          +0.2 p        +0.2 p       +0.1 p          +1.0
     Diffusion                 75.0          50.0         75.0          75.0
 
 
     n.a.  Not available     p  Preliminary     r  Revised
     Indexes equal 100 in 1990
 
 SOURCE  The Conference Board