DUBLIN, April 27, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The "World Commodity Forecasts Food Feedstuffs and Beverages" report has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.
The food, feedstuffs and beverages (FFB) price index contracted by 4.3% in 2019, as falling prices of oilseeds and weaker growth in the prices of cocoa, coffee and staple grains weighed on the index. The bilateral trade war between the US and China has disrupted existing trade patterns and caused the prices of some products that are subject to tariffs, including soybeans and soymeal, to diverge in some markets. A number of other markets, including those for grains, such as rice and maize, are also beginning to tighten slightly, which will support price growth in this sub-index in 2020-21. Nonetheless, supplies in most markets remain comfortable by historical standards. Downside risks related to a potentially disruptive El Niño event will persist, but an agricultural price shock is not expected.
By 2020 it is expected producers and consumers will have largely adapted to the shifts in supply chains caused by the US-China trade war. The FFB price index is forecast to rise at a rate of 3.9%, boosted by high price growth of beverages. Rising populations and incomes are expected to continue to support modest growth in demand (and therefore prices) in the medium and long term, pushing up prices to growth of 2.8% in 2021.
Nonetheless, the road ahead will be bumpy. Agricultural markets have been well supplied for several consecutive seasons, providing ample stocks to draw on. Labour shortages created by the coronavirus pandemic are expected to hurt agricultural productivity. Furthermore, the risk of a disorderly economic slowdown in China (although not the core forecast) and the impact of the increasingly protectionist trade policies espoused by the US president, Donald Trump, continue to pose risks to the forecast. In addition, exchange-rate trends may help to keep a lid on global commodity prices. Since last April the US dollar has rallied strongly against other major currencies. The dollar (in which most raw materials are traded) is expected to continue to remain fairly strong against most emerging-market currencies in 2020-21, especially as the sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira and the Argentinian peso sparks concerns about potential contagion in other emerging markets. This will weigh on import demand in many emerging markets and encourage exporters to increase output, further contributing to global supplies.
Key Topics Covered:
- Commodity price index: food, feedstuffs and beverages
- US-China trade war has disrupted global supply chains
- FFB prices will rise again in 2020, but risks to the forecast remain mixed
- Grain prices are expected to record only modest growth in 2020-21
- Oilseed prices are expected to return to growth in 2020-21
- A recovery in coffee prices will lift the beverages sub-index in 2020-21
- A prolonged global surplus will sustain pressure on sugar prices
- Palm oil
- Rapeseed oil
- Sunflowerseed oil
- Statistical appendix: food, feedstuffs and beverages
For more information about this report visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/i62x5f
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SOURCE Research and Markets