India's pre-owned car market to surge 2.5X in value to be INR 4.4 Trillion and grow 2x in volume to reach 8.2 Mn units, over the next five years: OLX - CRISIL Auto Note 6

A summary of key findings for the pre-owned car market, FY22 - 27

• The pre-owned car market continues to outpace the new car market and is forecasted to do so over the next 5 years
• The pre-owned car market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from FY22 - 27 while the new car market will grow at a CAGR of 10%
• Growth in the pre-owned car market is fuelled by low car penetration, economic growth and rising disposable incomes, accelerated shift to digital, revival of new car launches post pandemic, shrinking car replacement cycles & favorable regulatory support
• UVs will become the fastest growing segment in pre-owned cars - growing at 3X, extending their market share in the pre-owned car segment from 22% in 2022 to 32% by exit 2027
• Digital platforms to expand by 4X, from 3% in FY22 to more than 12% in FY27, with huge headroom for growth

GURUGRAM, India, Nov. 25, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Indian pre-owned car market is poised to accelerate and vroom past the new car market, states the 6th annual edition of OLX Autos report in partnership with CRISIL.

While the pre-owned car market has traditionally outstripped the new car market, the former will further accelerate its lead on new cars over the next 5 years - on the back of low car penetration, shift to digital, new car launches, shrinking replacement cycles and a favorable regulatory environment.

In FY21, Covid-19's impact was evident in the pre-owned car market, amidst the supply shortage as well as country wide lockdowns. However, in FY22, the pre-owned car market has achieved pre-pandemic levels in volume terms and has grown 9% since. Going forward, in FY23, the industry will pick up pace, backed by a return to near-normalcy and improved consumer sentiment, increase in mobility with the opening of offices and a resurgence in travel, and improved new vehicle supply.

The annual OLX-CRISIL Auto Note 6, examines the last 5 years of the pre-owned car market from FY17 to FY22 and charts the trends for the next five years - from FY22 to FY27 that will shape the pre-owned car market in India. This study also highlights the region-wise demand trends, emerging consumer preferences, the most popular car models across segments in the pre-owned market, and the rapid growth of financial services in the pre-owned car market.

According to Mr Amit Kumar, CEO, OLX India. "Over the last 6 years, OLX Auto Note has established itself as a leading voice on the pre-owned car market and the emerging trends that will shape its future. This year, emerging from the impact of Covid-19, the pre-owned car market is poised for further acceleration in the coming years. There is a clear preference for pre-owned cars among consumers in larger towns, fuelled by an accelerated shift to digital channels - that offer higher convenience and build consumer trust. Urban markets drive the bulk of the demand for cars in India, With 37% of the Indian population living in urban areas by 2025, we will see a sharp rise in disposable incomes and affordability for discretionary spending on personal mobility."

Pre-owned car market to double in size over the next 5 years (FY22 - 27)

Growing at a CAGR of 16%, the pre-owned car market is expected to double in size from 4.1 million units in FY22 to 8.2 million units in FY27,  increasing its lead by 1.7X over the new car market.

Interestingly, during this period, the new car market is also expected to witness healthy growth, and grow at a CAGR of 9-11%, reaching 4.8 - 5 mn cars by FY27. Infact, the new car market will record high sales in FY23 backed by improvement in production levels, product launches coupled with continued traction for the UV segment.

Market share for UVs at 49% surpassed those of both small cars (45%) and sedans (3%) combined in FY22. The UV segment has grown from 25% in FY17 to 49% in FY22. During the same period, large (from 8% to 3%) and small (65% to 45%) have de-grown in annual sales.

Share of UVs to grow a phenomenal 3X in the pre-owned car segment

In the pre-owned car segment, UVs have increased their share from 17% in FY17 to 22% in FY22. Over the next 5 years, UVs will continue to experience accelerated growth of 3X, reaching a market share of 32% in the pre-owned car market. This segmental shift towards UVs in the pre-owned car market will further help uplift the average price of a pre-owned car, leading to a 2.5X growth in the overall value of the pre-owned car market, over the next 5 years, from Rs. 1.8 trillion in FY22 to Rs. 4.1 trillion in FY27, growing at a CAGR of 19%.

The most popular UVs in the pre-owned car segment as per OLX platform data are Hyundai CRETA, Maruti Brezza, Maruti Ertiga and Mahindra XUV500.

Share of small and large cars in the pre-owned car segments and popular brands

Small cars no doubt dominate the pre-owned segment commanding 58% of all cars, with Maruti maintaining its dominance. The share of small cars will contract marginally by 2% to 56% by FY27. The most popular small cars as per OLX platform data considering the average vehicle age of 5 years in the pre-owned segment are Maruti Baleno, Hyundai Elite i20, Renault KWID, Maruti Suzuki Dzire and Hyundai Grand i10.

The large car or sedan pre-owned segment will see the most contraction, declining from 12% share in FY22 to 7% in FY27 owing to the declining sales in the new car market, lack of new model launches and a shift in preference towards UVs. Honda City continues to be India's favorite sedan in the pre-owned segment.

The shift towards UVs is driving down the age of pre-owned cars, and also improving the average buying price in the category

Preference for UVs, especially compact UVs is on the rise mainly in urban markets in line with the expanding share in the new car market. Share expansion of UVs is expected to continue as the recently launched compact UVs come into the pre-owned car market. Given the intermittent launches, UVs are also seeing faster replacement cycles as its customers typically tend to replace their cars sooner.

This segment shift to UVs in general will have a domino effect in terms of the age of the cars in the pre-owned segment. The availability of younger vehicles will be much larger and also preferred. 

The share of cars that are in the age bracket of 0 to 7 years, would form nearly 58% of available cars in the pre-owned segment in FY27, adding tremendously to its attractiveness and preference among buyers. Thus in FY27, the number of cars in the 0-7 age bracket would be 2.2X that of FY22.

Age of vehicle and price key criteria while buying a pre-owned car

While metro buyers prefer younger vehicles, price is the primary selection criterion in tier 2/3 cities.

Preference for UV and vans is relatively higher in the East region, while within cars primarily cheaper, lower compact/ basic hatchbacks priced in the Rs 2-3 lakh range are preferred. The average age of vehicles was also higher in the East at  - 6-8 years, compared to other regions. 

Small car/Hatchback prices typically range between Rs 2-4 lakh, sedans around Rs 5-6 lakh and UV prices were relatively higher in the  7-9 lakh range in the preowned market.                                 

Contribution of Digital platforms to grow 4X by FY27 with huge headroom for further growth

Digital platforms will make massive strides, growing from 3% in FY22 to more than 12% in FY27, an increase of 4X. The organized market (dealers with sales showrooms and workshops) will make up 40% and C2C channel will be 20% in FY27. The unorganized market that comprises dealers without a basic sales set up and workshop will shrink by half to just 25% by FY27.

Regulatory Environment

Favorable regulatory requirements will help propel the growth of the organized and digital sector. Recently, MoRTH has issued a draft notification setting down guidelines and new regulations for the vehicle resale market whereby dealers would be required to get an authorization certificate to identify their authenticity.

Further, the introduction of BH registrations by the Government, will simplify interstate vehicle transfer and will enable free transaction of cars across state borders.

Pre-owned car financing to see a significant thrust

The pre-owned car financing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 25% from Rs. 360 Bn to Rs. 1275 Bn by FY27.

Expected premiumization in vehicles would drive up average vehicle prices and in turn average financing value per car in the pre-owned car market. Finance penetration (pre-owned cars financed out of total pre-owned cars sold) will grow significantly from 25% - 30% in FY22 to 35%-40% in FY27.

"Post pandemic, the Indian automobile sector has shown strong growth both in the new car as well as the pre-owned car market. Increased preference for personal mobility, easing supply-side constraints, increased discretionary and a shift in product mix are contributing towards the sector's growth. Our yearly study of the market with OLX Autos highlights these dynamic shifts alongside the move to digitally driven and organised players that are further supporting the fast track growth of the used car market," said Hemal Thakkar, Director, CRISIL Research.

Tier II cities lead in the demand for pre-owned cars

Tier II cities have been the growth engine for demand for pre-owned cars with Tier II cities making up nearly 40% of the demand, followed by metro cities at 35% and tier III cities and rural, making up for the rest of the 25%.

Other Key Highlights

• First time buyers typically form 40-45% of the overall customer base of the pre-owned car market.
• Women buyers currently contribute nearly 10% in metro/tier 1 cities and less than 5% in tier 2/3 cities. 
• Preference for automatic versions is also higher in metros with the worsening traffic conditions coupled with higher women participation who predominantly prefer automatic variants.      

Methodology

CRISIL's research is derived on the basis of the data from key industry bodies, and the OLX platform that is then extrapolated through their algorithms and calculations. The research report is further complemented by interactions on the ground across various market participants that includes dealers, pan India.

CRISIL is India's foremost provider of ratings, data, research, analytics and solutions with a strong track record of growth, culture of innovation and a global footprint.

About OLX Autos

OLX Autos builds advanced trading platforms for buying and selling second-hand cars. It combines online and offline services in a simple one-stop solution - bringing convenience, safety, and peace of mind to car buyers and sellers alike, and across 9 countries and four continents.

OLX Autos operates 550+ inspection centers across Asia, Europe and the Americas, and online trading platforms for people to buy and sell cars. Over 65K vehicles are inspected per month globally.

OLX Autos is currently active in Argentina, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, and Mexico. It operates under the well-known webuyanycar.com brand in the US, and letgo Otoplus in Turkey, and 321 SPRZEDANE and OTOMOTO Klik in Poland.

OLX Autos is part of OLX Group, which operates one of the fastest-growing networks of trading platforms globally. It serves 322 million people every month in 30+ countries around the world, helping them buy and sell cars, find housing, get jobs, buy and sell household goods, and much more. For more information, visit www.olxgroup.com.