Nexar Data Reveals Why 2 P.M. Has Become the Most Dangerous Time to Drive Over Thanksgiving Week

Insights from one of the largest distributed vision networks on U.S. roads reveal when holiday driving actually gets dangerous—and uncover two unexpected danger windows despite 54% fewer cars

NEW YORK, Nov. 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Nexar, a leader in AI-powered mobility solutions, today released new findings on Thanksgiving-week driving patterns based on analysis from its Real-World Data Engine. With 100M+ miles of road data captured monthly, Nexar identified clear shifts in real-world driver behavior, uncovering national trends as well as state-level differences in how Americans move—and how safely they drive—during one of the country's busiest holiday periods.

The report highlights dramatic nationwide shifts in road activity, risk, and driver dynamics. The analysis shows a 39% drop in overall traffic during Thanksgiving week—including a 54% decline on Thanksgiving Day—a 31.5% reduction in incidents, two unexpected danger windows on Thanksgiving, earlier daily risk peaks, and meaningful differences in safety outcomes from state to state.

"The holidays introduce rare patterns and real-world edge cases - moments when human driving diverges from baseline assumptions," said Zach Greenberger, CEO of Nexar. These insights reflect ground-truth driving behaviors captured directly from the road, giving communities a clearer understanding of holiday travel risks—and helping them stay ahead of danger, not just react to it."

Holiday Driving Drops Dramatically

Thanksgiving week traffic falls 39% nationwide, with Thanksgiving Day itself plunging more than 54% compared to a typical Thursday. New patterns emerging from real-world driving footage show:

• Traffic falls 39% compared to a typical late-fall week.
• Thanksgiving Day sees the steepest drop—over 54% versus the average Thursday.
• Monday through Wednesday remain the busiest days (17–18% of weekly traffic each) but still show ~27% less activity than normal.

This steep decline mirrors the "holiday inversion"—a period where fewer cars on the road translate into calmer, safer conditions.

Fewer Cars, Fewer Crashes — With Two Surprising Risk Windows

Incidents decline 31.5% overall, but pre-dinner and late-night hours on Thanksgiving show elevated risk despite lighter traffic. Nexar's analysis shows:

• 31.5% fewer incidents during Thanksgiving week.
• Thanksgiving Day stands out with a 61% drop in incidents versus a typical Thursday.
• With 10.9% of weekly traffic and only 8.1% of weekly incidents, Thanksgiving carries a 26% lower chance of an incident than usual.

However, two unexpected danger periods emerge:

1. Pre-dinner bump around 6 p.m.
2. A late-night spike from 10 p.m. to midnight, with 11 p.m. showing 28% higher incident propensity relative to traffic.

Midday and Early Afternoon Become the Most Dangerous Times to Drive

Incident peaks shift earlier in the day, with 2 p.m. repeatedly emerging as one of the highest-risk hours across multiple holiday-week days.

• Pre-Thanksgiving days show elevated incident risk between 1 p.m. and 5 p.m.
• Wednesday introduces earlier peaks beginning at 10 a.m., flattening traditional hourly patterns.
• From Friday to Sunday, activity recovers only modestly, with peaks shifting earlier to 12 p.m.–4 p.m.
• Across several days, 2 p.m. consistently becomes one of the most dangerous hours, often exceeding baseline expectations.

This suggests that post-lunch driving behaviors may contribute to elevated risk during the holiday week.

State-Level Patterns Reveal Unique Holiday Impacts

For example, Washington D.C., along with Washington, West Virginia, and Delaware experience increased incident propensity, while Wyoming and Hawaii become notably safer.

• Washington, D.C. shows the largest increase, rising from -0.66% to +6.68% in incident propensity on Thanksgiving (+7.34 point swing).
• Washington, West Virginia, and Delaware also see increases of over one point.
• Wyoming shows the strongest improvement, dropping from +1.88% incident propensity to –1%—a 2.88-point decrease.
• Hawaii exhibits a similarly meaningful reduction.

"These findings reinforce what we see throughout the year across Nexar's network," said Greenberger. "With AI-powered road intelligence, we can help communities understand not only where risk exists, but when—and why—proactively identifying risk before incidents occur."

The company continues to release seasonal and event-driven analyses to help support cities, insurers, automakers, and autonomous systems with actionable roadway intelligence and provide an objective lens into America's evolving driving behavior.

For more details on Nexar's Thanksgiving report, visit https://www.nexar-ai.com/case-study/thanksgiving-special.

About Nexar
Nexar turns cars into vision sensors to understand the world. Its platform powers vision-connected services and apps at scale, making new vision-based applications for better driving powered by a crowd-sourced vision feed. Using anonymous, aggregated data captured from this network, Nexar has developed a portfolio of vision-based data services for the autonomous vehicle industry and public and private sector partners to make roadways safer and more efficient. More information at https://www.nexar-ai.com/.

Logo: https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/2509048/5635456/Nexar_Logo.jpg

SOURCE Nexar