Redseer Forecasts The Best Festive Period for E-commerce in the Last 5 Years, GMV to cross 1.15 Trillion

BENGALURU, India, Sept. 1, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- India's festive economy in 2025 is shaping up to be the one of the strongest in the last few years, powered by macro tailwinds and structural shifts that go beyond the headline growth numbers. Redseer's latest analysis shows e-commerce sales during the 30–35 days leading up to Diwali are projected to cross ₹1.15 lakh crore GMV, growing 20–25% year-on-year – nearly double last year's pace, and probably the best in the last 5 years.

According to this report, Redseer predicts, dual-peak phenomenon this year. With GST slab simplification (5% and 18% replacing 12% and 28%) likely to roll out around Diwali, consumers are expected to stagger certain purchases. High-ticket categories such as appliances may see deferment until post-Diwali, creating a second wave of demand later in the year. For brands and platforms, this means planning not just for one spike, but two.

Another key trend is rapid pre-festive momentum for new e-commerce models.

Quick commerce, projected to grow at ~150% YoY (or even more) during the festive period, is becoming the default for impulse-driven, festive gifting and daily top-ups. On the other end, value commerce, growing at 30-35% YoY this calendar year, is pulling in mass consumers by offering depth and breadth in affordable assortments. These explosive growth trends are expected to sustain and even get better in this festive period. While these two ends are likely to reshape festive purchase behaviour more rapidly, the legacy horizontals will continue to drive the bulk of the purchase.

Category dynamics are also evolving. Fashion, beauty, and home are sustaining >20% growth, but grocery is set to outperform, driven by quick commerce. Meanwhile, mobiles and electronics will still dominate festive volumes, but it's home & general merchandise in Tier 2+ cities that could surprise as one of the fastest risers.

"E-commerce festive 2025 is projected to be the best in the last 5 years, but will not be business-as-usual. With a dual-peak demand curve and the rapid rise of quick and value commerce, this year's playbook is fundamentally different. Brands that plan beyond just the pre-Diwali week—tailoring strategies for both impulse and affordability—will capture outsized share," said Kushal Bhatnagar, Associate Partner at Redseer Strategy Consultants.

With resilient consumer optimism, supportive policy shifts, and digital acceleration, festive 2025 is not just bigger, it's structurally different, creating new benchmarks for India's consumption story.

About Redseer:
Redseer Strategy Consultants is a leading strategy consulting firm, solving the strategy behind scale for brands and new-age companies. Headquartered in Bengaluru, Redseer has 200+ consultants across India, ME, and SEA. Learn more: www.redseer.com

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