Smoking Nearly Halved in Japan in a Decade: Experts at Technovation Tashkent 2026 Call for Science-Led Tobacco Policy

At the forum's first Central Asian edition, government officials, scientists and doctors examined how countries that embraced science-led innovation have cut smoking, and what others can learn

NEW DELHI, Oct. 12, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Japan, Sweden and the United States show that giving adult smokers access to scientifically assessed smoke-free alternatives, under clear regulation, can help bring smoking down, experts told Technovation Tashkent 2026. The international innovation forum, convened by Philip Morris International (PMI), held its first Central Asian edition in Tashkent on 30 September. It brought together senior officials of the Government of Uzbekistan, scientists, business leaders, consumer advocates and doctors from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Russia.

Opening the forum, Akram Aliyev, Deputy Minister of Investment, Industry and Trade of Uzbekistan, said the success of innovation 'should be measured not only by economic indicators, but also by its contribution to preserving and improving the health of the nation.'

"There are more than one billion smokers in the world, and the number is not declining. If they don't want to quit, you have to propose something better for them," shared Marco Mariotti, President, South & Southeast Asia and CIS, Philip Morris International.

In her keynote, Dr. Tomoko Iida, Senior Director, Scientific Engagement at PMI, explained why a better option is possible. Most smoking-related disease is caused by burning tobacco, which produces more than 6,000 chemicals, around 100 of them harmful. Nicotine is addictive and not risk-free, but it is not the primary cause of these diseases. She said products that deliver nicotine without burning can therefore reduce exposure to harmful chemicals, provided smokers find them acceptable enough to switch.

Japan shows what can happen when such products become available. Heated tobacco went on sale there, and in Italy, in 2014. Dr. Iida said earlier tax rises, advertising limits and smoking bans had produced only marginal declines. A study in the BMJ journal Tobacco Control found that cigarette sales in Japan fell by more than half between 2011 and 2023, and identified the rise of heated tobacco as a factor.

"In Japan, smoking prevalence has nearly halved in 10 years. In 2014 it was around 20%, and now it is around 10%. The reason is that less harmful alternatives were available, accessible and affordable for legal-age smokers to switch to," shared Dr. Tomoko Iida, Senior Director, Scientific Engagement, Philip Morris International.

Sweden took a similar path decades earlier, as adults moved from cigarettes to snus and, more recently, nicotine pouches. Daily smoking fell to 3.7% in 2025, below the 5% level used to define a 'smoke-free' country.

Italy has regulated and taxed heated tobacco as a separate category from cigarettes since 2016.

The United States Food and Drug Administration has reviewed the evidence and authorised modified-risk claims in three categories: snus (2019), heated tobacco (2020) and nicotine pouches (2026). The FDA notes that no tobacco product is safe. Dr. Iida said these independent reviews answer public scepticism about company science: 'They don't have to look at our science. They just have to look at the evidence that other public health agencies have reviewed and authorised.'

The medical panel agreed that quitting remains the best outcome, and that adults who do not quit need accurate information.

"Our ideal purpose is to quit smoking, and this is the first aim for each smoking patient. It is very important not to confuse nicotine addiction with the much greater harm from inhaling toxic substances in tobacco smoke," said Dr. Boris Kasparov, Oncologist, N.N. Petrov National Medical Research Centre of Oncology, Russia.

Dr. Saida Umarzoda warned that prohibition can backfire. "Public health policy should not be based on bans, because this leads to growth in illegal trade that we cannot control. The alternatives we offer people must be based on scientifically proven facts," Dr. Saida Umarzoda, Oncologist, Tajik State Medical University, Tajikistan.

That risk is real in the region. Uzbekistan's State Customs Committee said it has brought the illicit share of the tobacco market down to around 7%, from much higher levels, and seized more than 3 million illicit packs this year.

Dr. Meiram Raganin, a dental surgeon from Kazakhstan, said that in his six-month study, smokers who switched to heated tobacco showed better oral hygiene and less gum inflammation, while those who kept smoking got worse. Dr. Javokhir Khalmukhamedov of Tashkent State Medical University stressed that every innovation must be judged by evidence-based medicine. Dr. Kasparov added that industry-funded studies 'shouldn't be automatically rejected' but weighed alongside independent research.

India has about 267 million tobacco users, including 99.5 million smokers, according to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS-2, 2016–17). Speakers urged governments to review the evidence regulators elsewhere have already assessed, and to decide for themselves. "Every government should look at the scientific evidence and make its own conclusion. They could have their medical community review the existing evidence, including from regulators like the US FDA or the Japanese government, and make an informed decision. This is what I would hope the Indian government will do as well," Dr. Tomoko Iida, Senior Director, Scientific Engagement, Philip Morris International.

Dr. Kasparov added that lessons must be 'adapted to local conditions and continuously evaluated.' Omar Abdellatif, Managing Director, Kazakhstan & Central Asia, PMI, put it this way in the forum's opening panel: 'It's not about heavy regulation or light regulation. It's about smart regulation, based on science and the future, not on assumptions of the past.'

About Technovation

Technovation is an international forum, convened by Philip Morris International, that brings together businesses, regulators, civil society, scientists, medical professionals and media to discuss how technology and innovation can contribute to economic and social development. Previous editions were held in Stockholm and Washington. Technovation Tashkent took place on 30 September 2026 at the JW Marriott Hotel Tashkent, Uzbekistan.