Macroeconomics and Crypto Markets Entanglement Intensifies, Revealed Bybit x Block Scholes Feb. Volatility Report
DUBAI, UAE, Feb. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Bybit, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, released its latest joint monthly volatility report with Block Scholes uncovering insights from January's crypto options trading data.
The report indicated BTC's and ETH's growing influence in the global financial landscape, evidenced by the diminishing historical divide between digital assets and conventional markets. By all accounts, key crypto assets are increasingly moving in tandem with macroeconomic signals. From tariffs to the AI race, the digital asset class is no longer insulated from world affairs. The data suggests that crypto is maturing from financial outlier to market bellwether, marking a fundamental shift for traders navigating this new landscape.
Key findings:
- Crypto Markets — The New Canary in the Economic Coal Mine: Crypto markets are increasingly functioning as early warning systems for broader market movements. In the eventful first month of 2025, digital assets demonstrated heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic developments, often reacting hours or even days before traditional equity markets. While equity markets were asleep, the always-on crypto markets digested key indicators such as CPI, labor market data, and potential rate hikes or cuts.
- The Weekend Effect: As the convergence between cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets reached new heights in Jan., crypto's "early warning" feature was exacerbated particularly on weekends. The 24/7 nature of crypto trading has created a unique dynamic where weekend sessions, especially Sundays, have become crucial indicators of market sentiment. Traders saw a pattern of significant Sunday trading activity that consistently foreshadowed Monday market openings.
- Ethereum's New Dynamics: While ETH and BTC have historically shared similar trajectories in market movements, the past month revealed a more nuanced relationship. During market downturns, ETH was more vulnerable to negative sentiment, consistently outperformed by BTC. However, the trajectories diverged in options markets, pricing ETH's implied volatility lower than historical patterns would suggest. This disconnect between market expectations and realized performance points to evolving dynamics in how different cryptocurrencies respond to market stress.
The Bybit and Block Scholes Monthly Volatility Report series is available on Bybit Learn.
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About Bybit
Bybit is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, serving a global community of over 60 million users. Founded in 2018, Bybit is redefining openness in the decentralized world by creating a simpler, open and equal ecosystem for everyone. With a strong focus on Web3, Bybit partners strategically with leading blockchain protocols to provide robust infrastructure and drive on-chain innovation. Renowned for its secure custody, diverse marketplaces, intuitive user experience, and advanced blockchain tools, Bybit bridges the gap between TradFi and DeFi, empowering builders, creators, and enthusiasts to unlock the full potential of Web3. Discover the future of decentralized finance at Bybit.com.
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