MNI Indicators: Lower Costs Boost Indian Business Sentiment in February
Input Prices Decline to Lowest on Record
DELHI, India, Feb. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The MNI India Business Sentiment Indicator rose 3.1% to 66.2 in February from 64.2 in January as the cheaper cost of raw materials helped to offset the recent weakening in demand.
The increase in confidence brought to a halt four monthly declines in the business indicator, leaving it close to the average seen over the past year. Confidence was boosted in the run up to the election of Prime Minister Modi last year but has subsequently eased as businesses have become increasingly disappointed with a lack of concrete reforms.
While overall sentiment is almost 14% above the level in February 2014, this performance has not been matched by other key indicators in the report such as New Orders and Production which have both fallen.
Companies benefited from lower prices and the recent strengthening in the rupee. The Input Prices Indicator fell to just above the 50 breakeven mark, the lowest in the survey's history.
Firms also reported that the interest rate costs they faced were falling at the fastest pace on record following the recent cut in official rates.
Other activity metrics in the survey showed a moderate weakening. Companies were less willing to hire in February as they scaled back production in the face of weaker demand. Production fell to the lowest since May 2014 and New Orders declined to the lowest since October 2013.
Commenting on the latest survey, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, "The recent rate cut likely helped to boost overall sentiment a little, helped by a lower inflation environment which has cut input costs for companies. Other key activity metrics such as production and orders, though, are still trending down."
"The continued low level of inflation seen in our survey and also the official data suggests the Reserve Bank of India has room to ease policy further, although critical to timing will be the RBI's assessment of the recent GDP revisions."
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Editorial Content:
| Philip Uglow Chief Economist, MNI Indicators |
Notes to Editors
Please source all information to MNI Indicators.
MNI India Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Indian business executives at companies listed on BSE (formerly known as the Bombay Stock Exchange). Companies are a mix of manufacturing, service, construction and agricultural firms.
Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production higher/same/lower compared with a month ago?
Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50 means no change.
Data is collected via telephone interviews. More than 400 companies are surveyed each month. The survey has been in place since November 2012.
About MNI Indicators
MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Borse Group, offers unique macro-economic data and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets.
For more information, visit our website at www.mni-indicators.com.
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