CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey Highlights Sharp Performance Divergence Between Private and State-Owned Enterprises in China in Q1 2026
BEIJING, May 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The Q1 2026 CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey reveals a striking divergence in corporate performance across China's listed companies, with private enterprises experiencing a strong earnings recovery while state-owned enterprises continue to lag significantly behind.
In the first quarter of 2026, trailing twelve-month (TTM) net profit growth among listed private enterprises rebounded sharply to 22.5% YoY, while state-owned enterprises recorded a continued decline of 14.5% over the same period, even as overall market sentiment and macroeconomic conditions improve.
The divergence extends across industry classification as well. Strategic emerging companies posted TTM net profit growth of 21.0%, while traditional companies recorded a decline of 6.1%, further highlighting uneven structural recovery dynamics within the listed companies in China. For long-term investors, the findings highlight continued structural rotation toward innovation-led sectors within China's equity landscape.
"Corporate performance in China's equity market is becoming increasingly bifurcated," Liu Jing, CKGSB's Professor of Accounting and Finance, Director of Investment Research Department and the author of the survey, notes. "While private enterprises and growth-oriented sectors linked to new productive forces are experiencing strong momentum, state-owned enterprises and traditional industries remain under pressure."
Despite this uneven earnings landscape, investor sentiment toward equity markets has remained broadly resilient. Approximately 63.8% of respondents expect A-shares to rise, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous survey period. Expectations for Hong Kong equities also improved modestly to 62.1%.
However, the report emphasizes that the broader market rally continues to be driven primarily by valuation expansion rather than earnings recovery. Aggregate analysis shows that A-share listed companies delivered only about 1.0% TTM net profit growth in Q1 2026, while price-to-earnings ratios rose by 31.2%, resulting in total equity returns of approximately 32.5%.
The survey also finds that sentiment toward real estate has improved following a series of policy measures introduced since early 2026, although actual investment willingness remains subdued.
The CKGSB Investor Sentiment Survey is one of the few academically grounded, high-frequency, large-sample barometers of investor sentiment in China's capital markets. By bridging behavioral insights with fundamental financial data, it tracks sentiment alongside evolving macroeconomic and equity market dynamics over time. The findings are particularly relevant for global investors reassessing the balance between valuation-driven gains and earnings fundamentals in China's equity markets.
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