NEW YORK, Nov. 17, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- When many had it wrong, one group had it right. Armada Publishing, a New York-based consulting and research firm led by Patrick Caddell, Scott Miller and Bob Perkins predicted the Trump win based on research it published weeks ago.
The information had been building in Armada's "WeNeedSmith.com" polls over the past five years, the latest results issued just a couple of weeks before the election. Points from that poll showed the alienation, frustration and anger of an overwhelming number of all voters, of all parties, genders, demographics and belief systems:
- More than two thirds of voters (67.6%) said they believe America is on the wrong track. 62.9% believe the American way of life is changing for the worse, and 72.2% believe America is actually in decline.
- 83.7% believe that ordinary people are losing the power to influence our Government, and 80.4% believe people with money and position play by different rules than the rest of us.
- 87.3% of American voters feel politicians and other elites like lobbyists, big business, big banks, big unions and big media rig the system to protect their own power and prestige.
- 53.2% said they want big change in our government and economy. And the "old way" versus "radical change" loses by 77.8% to 18.7%.
These attitudes were held even more strongly among what Armada calls the "double negatives" -- voters who said they didn't like either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, but would still likely vote. Close examination of the data showed how they would decide on Election Day: by an almost two-to-one margin they said, "If Hillary wins, the elites win;" and by almost the same margin they said, "If Donald Trump wins, the elites lose."
Looking closely is not what the big media or most campaign consultants were doing. As it turns out, the polls were almost all irrelevant and wrong. The polls, big data, the ground game and the ads and ads and ads and ads… didn't work in this election. Hundreds of millions of dollars-worth, all didn't work.
"The divisions we hear of among citizens have been largely created and amplified by the political class to sharpen their campaigns, delight their funders and keep control of their system," said Pat Caddell, Co-founder, Armada Publishing. "What we saw throughout our polling was a broad electorate united in its desire for change and reform."
We Need Smith is a movement to support new ideas and new leadership in Washington with the goal of returning power from political elites and special interests back to the American people. "The next step in our work will include helping to identify a new class of leadership for American politics, business and civic life that emulate the "Smith" model," said Scott Milller. "We want to find them, help them understand the perceptions and attitudes of the people they want to serve and support them as they begin to take the lead in a nation craving change."
About Armada Publishing
Patrick Caddell, Scott Miller and Bob Perkins are principals of Armada Publishing, a New York-based consulting and research firm. Caddell has served as pollster and strategist in numerous Democratic presidential campaigns. Miller has extensive political experience in both Democratic and Republican campaigns. Perkins has held senior positions in the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee.
Greg Nyhan 908.230.5777
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SOURCE Armada Publishing